What You Need To Know If You Are Investing In California Real Estate

The top half lists nine markets where home prices are 25% or more above the “income” price, a calculated price closely tied to local income that’s been an infallible predictor of bubbles. Over-priced markets always come back in line with the “income” price, sometimes by stagnating while the “income” price catches up, sometimes by falling very sharply two or three years in a row.

For an actual bubble-and-bust I’m most worried about San Francisco itself, already heavily over-priced, and with prices up 14% in the past year, San Jose, where job growth remains very high, and Riverside-San Bernardino, which is always the tail of the LA dog.

The 11 markets in the bottom half of the table aren’t immune from a fall in demand but the risks are lower, so investors have a wider range of options.


Maybe we should all go buy something in Bakersfield? It’s 8% undervalued according to this guy. How about Visalia? Another shithole?

Stockton actually tied San Jose for job growth? :exploding_head:

We have a lot for sale in Bako…40 acres…240 paper lots…$5m

This data is wrong. No way no how that average rent in the context of housing prices in SF is $2013. That “article” must be looking at prices that include unis which have been under the same tenant under rent control for a very long time.

Average rent for a 1bed 1ba unit on the open market is more like $3300-ish.

Also in what universe has home prices in SF increased 14% from 2018-2019? Where is this magical place? Low quality “reporting.”

Data is SF metro not SF city.

Data failed to take into account local differences such as Antioch vs. Atherton.

Let’s invent 2 terms to avoid never ending confusions. This will make SFC to be comparable to NYC and makes Antioch part of SFM, everyone should be really happy

SFC: San Francisco City
SFM: San Francisco Metro
SFBA: you already know

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What people pay and what vacant units ask for rent are vastly different…Lots of very generous landords out there…Charity that is never acknowledged