Let’s do some more math on this misleading comparison trying to conflate “rate” vs “numbers”.
US population in 1970 was 200M. In 2022 it’s 340M. Marriage rate in 1970 according to that article is 76.5%. Now it’s 31%.
So number of married Americans in 1970 was 153M. Today it’s 105M. A drop of about 30%.
So that’s the first mistake, trying to compare rate with numbers.
Second one is pretty obvious. In this American statistics the drop happened gradually over more than half a century. The Chinese side collapsed in a decade.
The last confusion is a little more subtle. The Chinese number refers to new marriages happening in 2022. This American stat is looking at marriages that happened anytime before the quoted year. Huge difference.
Saw this very interesting stat on Reddit. It’s China’s number of births by years between 1929 to 2022. Unit is 10K.
There were two baby booms in China. First is 1962-1975. The first red box. The second is 1981 to 1997. The second red box. There is a rapid downshift after the 2nd baby boom.
The first baby boomers born 1962-75 are between 48 and 61 years old today. This group will be almost entirely out of the labor force within the next 10 years.
The second baby boomers born 1981-97 are between 26 and 41 years old now. Only the younger half say under 33 years old are in prime child bearing age. And we saw new borns in the last 5 years drop precipitously.
So two conclusions:
After this 2nd baby boomers age out of prime child-bearing age, China is mostly finished. Future cohorts are much smaller. And fewer and fewer percentage of young people want to have kids. Lower percentage multiplied by dwindling population = births will decelerate very sharply.
The 1st baby boomers will first retire, thus extracting resources from society in net, and later start dying. Chinese population will drop much faster than people realize today.
No countries, including Japan, has experienced a population cliff + retiree tsunami the scale and speed China faces today. China is done.
Canada has always been much easier to get a H1-B. They are a points based immigration systems where people with STEM degrees can get in easily. In other words, their immigration system is racist.
Actually our current system is racist. Tiny European countries like Switzerland have the same employment-based immigration quota as huge third-world countries like India.
Good news, soon can be self-sufficient in agriculture, no need to import.
Also weirdos nations don’t have to be anxious about some imaginary monsters.
Cons are military weapon businesses have to be more aggressive to find ways to generate sales. Perhaps, potential alien threats? If no nations are potential threats, have to be from aliens, right? Remember not long ago, is all about terrorists. From terrorists to aggressive nations to aliens
Saw some estimate of about 8M new borns in China this year, looking at the marriage rate in 1Q.
Many cite Japan as a template for China’s demographic collapse, but Japan was already a rich country going in, whereas China has about half the population earning less than $140 USD a month. Much worse dynamic.
