Worldwide Baby Bust

China’s collapsing birth rate:

From chart, one child policy is not the reason for declining birth rate. Birth rate has been declining before that and very sharply too. After one child policy, birth rate increases and then resume declining gradually. So one child policy is successful in slowing the birth rate but is insufficient to turn it back to positive. Something else is causing the birth rate to decline.

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One child policy was a big mistake. China’s birth rate was already declining. What One Child did was greatly skewed the gender ratio. Many baby girls got murdered or aborted because families wanted boys. Now China is reaping the fruits it laid decades ago.

All East Asian societies poisoned by Confucianism have rock bottom birth rates: Korea, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan. Ironically Japan now has the highest birth rates among this set of countries.

Worldwide Baby Bust means worldwide. Is not just East Asian societies. Your chart tells that your logic is flawed and yet you insist is correct despite proven otherwise by your chart. There is no point in discussing if you are not going to base your reasoning on facts and data.

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Ever occurs to you there could be multiple things going on at the same time?

At the time the One Child policy was introduced, China also embarked on market reforms under Deng. Income soared, especially in rural areas.

The cultural revolution also ended just a few years ago.

So a more stable society, people having more income and felt more hopeful for their future? Maybe more people felt they could start families? Just a guess.


Exactly why one-child policy is not the cause of birth rate decline.

If everything had only one cause, then sure. But notice the condition below was also true from 1985 to 2015.

China’s birth rate started going down again around 1987. So the effect of One Child cancelled out the economic progress and pushed down birth rates.

Policies announced by the central government takes a long time to filter down to local governments. “Mountain is high and emperor is far away.” Would not be surprising if a policy took 5 or 6 years from announcement by central government to actual strict enforcement by all local governments.

Still refuses to accept your logic is flawed. Worldwide, birth rates are declining. Any explanation has to account for this. Hint: Hookup culture and sexual revolution started in 1960s. FDA approved the use of birth control pill in Jun 23, 1960.

There is a strong driving reason for worldwide declining birth rate. Individual nation economic conditions and social policies could either accelerate or slowdown the birth rate but can’t stop the mega trend. These social policies should not be construed as the driving reason for the mega trend.

In Russia the government will give you money to have a second or child…
In addition new moms get paid maternity leave. Isn’t working, the population is still declining. Same size as 40 years ago