Worldwide Baby Bust

Never thought of it that way - Elon Musk is single-handedly keeping the US population curve afloat… :thinking:

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China is trying hard to stop the baby bust.

Here we tell them maybe they’re the opposite sex and give them puberty blockers.
Who’s crazier?

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Not good very bad.

We need the world depopulated as soon as possible. The global warming fanatics demand it.

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Babies are fine. We just need to get rid of ICE cars.

So Musk is the model for modern America. Have ten American kids that will damage the planet at the rate of 45 third world kids each… But each one can have three Tesla’s which are environmentalists wet dreams. Never underestimate the hypocrisy of the environmentalists.

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Fertility vs GDP plot. Korea is finished. US is not bad but France is ahead.

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Where’s China?

China is not in OECD. Its GDP per capita is too low.

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I just checked the member list. It’s an odd assortment with lots of really rinky-dink countries.
In any even replacement rate is 2.1 so we’re all hosed, some nations sooner than others. Mexico, believe it or not, is at just 1.9 so it’s not like immigration will solve the problem. The Domincan Republic, another major source for immigrants to the US, is barely positive at just 2.3. And China - 1.1 to 1.2 depending on source.

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The increasing education level of women has led to a declining fertility rate. There is only one solution :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

Fertility rate in Europe is highly correlated with whether young people have jobs and their own place to do you know what.

So if you want more babies just give young people free money and housing.

Great article on China’s demographic doom:

Root causes of China’s baby bust:

China’s efforts to boost its fertility rate face three major challenges. First, the one-child policy has reshaped the Chinese economy, dramatically increasing the cost of raising children. China’s household disposable income is equivalent to only 44% of its GDP, compared to 72% in the United States and 65% in the United Kingdom. The Chinese housing market was valued at four times the country’s GDP in 2020, whereas the American real-estate market is valued at 1.6 times GDP.

Why it’s difficult to raise household income share and lower house price:

Chinese policymakers now face a dilemma: if the real-estate bubble does not burst, young couples will be unable to afford to raise two children. But if the bubble does burst, China’s economy will slow, and a global financial crisis will erupt. Likewise, raising household disposable income to 60-70% of GDP in order to increase fertility could reduce the government’s power, undermining the economic foundations of its current “authoritarian at home and aggressive abroad” policy approach.

The result will be catastrophic:

If this declining interest in childbearing is any indication, China will struggle to stabilize its fertility rate at 0.8, and its population will fall to less than 1.02 billion by 2050 and 310 million in 2100.

The effects of this population decline will be compounded by rapid aging, which will slow Chinese growth and likely increase government debt. The share of Chinese people aged 65 and older will rise from 14% in 2020 to 35% in 2050. Whereas five workers aged 20-64 supported every senior citizen aged 65 and older in 2020, the ratio will continue to decline to 2.4 workers in 2035 and 1.6 in 2050. By that point, China’s pension crisis will develop into a humanitarian catastrophe.

Just copy US policies, make yuan a reserve currency so can keep printing if necessary.

310 million in a large geographic area is :+1: Can become self sufficient. My take is to let Covid take care of the elderly now so the young couple can focus on making babies.

To increase population, there is only one way: discourage women to educate themselves.

You want China to become Afghanistan? Not sure the Taliban have a great future.

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Disagree.

First, in Asian countries, they’ve been pretty much brainwashed into thinking that smaller families are better. Just have to undo that brainwashing. It’ll probably take about 15-20 years, but can happen. In India, they had a push for “One is best”. Now it needs to be “Three is best.”

Second, it’s going to take time for people to trust that China isn’t going to be punitive for having extra kids. I hear that nowadays, parents often do have a second now. China just needs to encourage a third. But keep in mind that in a past, if you went beyond China’s one-per-family policy, you either had to hide from the police until your baby was born or you could be dragged into a hospital, strapped down, and given a forced abortion even at 7 or 8 months when the baby would’ve been viable. Can you imagine going through that treatment or knowing a family member that did and then choosing to have that last allocated child? What if the government changes it’s mind mid-pregnancy? It’s going to take a long time for China’s government to earn trust.

Third, if you want to encourage educated women to have more kids, needs to be much easier to go back to work after a caregiving break.

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Nothing to do with Asia in general, China in particular. Worldwide fertility has been declining as education level of women is increasing. Any nation wanting to increase fertility rate and population has to adopt this unpopular policy.

Why do we need to INCREASE the population? There’s zero risk of extinction unless the earth becomes uninhabitable. We should be decreasing the population. The last thing we need is people in countries without resources to sustain their population to have more kids. We’ve been brainwashed into believing a growing population means success. It’s no different than tech companies thinking a growing headcount means success.

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Economic growth is based on increasing population.