Seduce the elderly to retire in MidWest
Unlikely to happen I think. At this point, people’s diets, stress, and lack of sleep and exercise are so bad, that people are dying younger.
Average life expectancy in the US is all the way down to 74 now. To put that in perspective it’s 84 in Italy.
In general, the commonly-used period life expectancies tend to be lower than the cohort life expectancies, because mortality rates were falling over the course of modern development. Whenever mortality rates are falling then the period life expectancy is lower than the life expectancy of the cohort born then…
Life expectancy is an average number and includes all ages of death for a cohort.
In societies with high infant mortality rates many people die in the first few years of life; but once they survive childhood, people often live much longer. Indeed, this is a common source of confusion in the interpretation of life expectancy figures: It is perfectly possible that a given population has a low life expectancy at birth, and yet has a large proportion of old people.
The longer you live, the longer you would live.
Oversimplified illustration.
10 person in a cohort. Avg life expectancy 74. 5 dies precisely at 50. Those still surviving can expect to live to an average age of 98
If one more dies precisely at 70, avg age to death for survivors = 105
U.S. Life Expectancy decreased in 2021 for the second consecutive year, according to final mortality data released today. The drop was primarily due to increases in COVID-19 and drug overdose deaths.
A second report released today, “Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 2001-2021,” showed that overdose deaths, which account for more than a third of all accidental deaths in the United States, have risen five-fold over the past two decades. The official number of drug overdose deaths among residents in the United States for 2021 was 106,699, nearly 16% higher than the 91,799 deaths in 2020.
Guess RE investors know the implication
Note: EU life expectancies are rebounding now that COVID is easing; US life expectancies are not.
Because too many Americans do drugs - opioids - and spread crazy theories about vaccines.
We’re also stressed out, fat and sleep deprived.
If we chilled a bit and ate a Mediterranean diet like the Italians we could add a decade to our lives.
Of course our GDP would go to hell
Or you can stay in CA and avoid the South like Texas.
CA: 79.0 years. TX: 76.5 years. But TX is already better than fellow Confederate states AL (73.2) and MS (71.9). Ouch!
A short Twitter thread on population history in China.
Google translate:
In “The History of China’s Population Development”, Ge Jianxiong said that China’s population exceeded 100 million in the Song Dynasty. In the Song Dynasty, the territory was mainly in the south, so the ratio of people to land was relatively tight, which led to a series of problems. The widespread infanticide in Chinese society began at that time.
In fact, in the late Ming Dynasty, the population exceeded 200 million, but because the relationship between people and land was very tense, the backlog of bureaucratic abuses in the middle and late Ming Dynasty made the people breathless.
Google translate:
There were intermittent uprisings in all provinces, plus Jurchen fought against the Ming army, the Ming army suppressed the rebel army, the rebel army slaughtered the city, and the Qing army slaughtered the city after entering the customs.
In the 195 years from the 12th year of Shunzhi (1655) to the 30th year of Daoguang (1850), the total population increased from 119 million to 430 million.
A large increase in population will inevitably require vigorous land reclamation and a large increase in food production, otherwise there will be
There is great turmoil, or nature eliminates the population through plague.
The uprisings of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom and the Nian Army took place under such conditions of extreme tension between man and land. Moreover, the most violent wars and destruction happened precisely in the most affluent and densely populated areas of China, such as the Yangtze River Delta, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and other places.
Of course, the Qing army was also merciless in suppressing them. They exterminated the insurgents and their supporters, fortified the walls and cleared the country, and carried out long-term
The siege strategy actually greatly reduced the Qing government’s population burden.
According to Ge Jianxiong’s statistics, during the 14 years from 1851 to 1865, the total population decreased by 112 million, objectively reducing the land and food pressure of the Qing government.
The number one reason for long life is an active social life. Homogenous countries populations live longer because they have a stable life. Family is important. In the US we are Balkanized and highly mobile.
People don’t have tight knit families and not enough friends
AZ’s Native American population (life expectancy =50) kills our average.
As for the rest of it -hmmm, eat more sushi or get married? Think I’ll go with the sushi.
The same conclusion comes in multiple researches… There was a famous Harvard study where they tracked people for ~40 years and found active social life single-handedly predicted health and happiness.
Even though more studies are needed, plant based food has more benefits
Another hard hitting piece from Yi. It’s game over for China.
Now consider China. In 1980, its median age was 21, eight years younger than America’s, and from 1979 to 2011, its GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10%. But China’s prime-age labor force (15-59) began to shrink in 2012, and by 2015, GDP growth had decelerated to 7% before slowing further, to 3%, as of 2022. An average of 23.4 million births per year from 1962 to 1990 made China “the world’s factory.”
But even China’s own exaggerated official figures put last year’s births at just 9.56 million. Chinese manufacturing will continue to decline as a result, creating new inflationary pressures in the US and elsewhere.
By 2030, China’s median age will already be 5.5 years above that of the US, and by 2033, its old-age dependency ratio will begin to exceed America’s. Its GDP growth rate will begin to fall below America’s in 2031-35, at which point its per capita GDP will hardly have reached 30% of its rival’s – let alone the 50-75% predicted by Chinese official economists. If the US is overtaken as the world’s largest economy, it will be by India, not China.
Xi will be the emperor responsible for China’s “civilizational collapse.”
So, China’s leaders should heed the lessons of Russia’s botched invasion and wake up from their unrealistic “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation. The government’s current policy approach is a formula for demographic and civilizational collapse.
Could just get a roommate.
Wouldn’t count on it. And vegans definitely have health issues especially scoliosis.
There’s a difference between eating McD’s and pizza every day and eating healthy. You can have pastured meat and pastured (chicken’s) eggs with a vegetarian diet and do quite well. If you could get a study going of the people who eat a vegan diet vs. vegan diet with only pastured meats, no fast food, you’d have a real study going. But McD’s against Vegan is like the worst of two worlds.