Next 10x Stock Winner

200 shares
10 calendar (Nov 24/ Nov 17 $100) - close if above $102.

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BTW: I made good profit recently, and still holding some long term hold. As long as economy is improving, not to be disturbed by technical chart.

IMO, Shopify continue to grow, but not in the steep rate they have come now.

First, they are going out of debt or they are debt free now, means financially stable position.

Their business model is help SMB (Small & Medium Biz) get into sales and they also support SMB financial models including credit card transactions…

SHOP is turning green now, profitable region

SHOP is consistently adding new accounts, quarter over quarter. This where Andrew Left had concern and telling their expense of getting customers are higher than income. The truth is known for insiders of SHOP like CEO and CFO.

Economy (USA/canada) is growing, and with additional tax cuts, esp corp taxes, we will have too many small customers.

SHOP current ratio and Quick Ratio is high like FB and SNAP. This means they have excess cash on hand. I think no debt.

SHOP has started capital financing for their small and Medium customers which adds revenue growth.They have also entered into capital financials for SMB. Capital Financing has negative when defaults are increasing, but we see good economical growth.

P/E way high and this is the risk. As earnings increases, their P/E will come down.

They have tie-ups with Amazon, Ebay…etc plenty of network.

Any company, debt free, and helping other companies to ramp up the sales and revenue, it is hard for those successful SMB’s to get rid of SHOP subscription.

When economy grows constantly, success of the SMBs are increasing and SHOP will continue to grow (But not at this current growth rate, but fairly good rate).

I do not expect them to grow like AMZN, but I am confident that they will reach a position like CRM or WDAY and they have the strong potential to achieve such position in 5 years.

Forgot 10x means 10x over 5 or 10 years?

Make sense to trade if you envision 10x over 5 years?

No one can assure in 5 years as there will be a downturn in between, but growth potential is there for this company.

I had high amount in SHOP,more than 50%, it was scary. I bought & sold to make it profitable and reduced to the exposure to 5%. With 5% SHOP, even if I lose entire amount, I am covered with this year profit 15% so far. Now, I am holding for long.

SHOP’s revenue growth last Qtr was 71%. That’s a huge growth rate.

They can not grow ever long with such huge growth, and it will come down in 12 to 18 months.

Since it is startup, it is growing like this, adding 100k-250k customers per quarters. There are attrition too. their growth may be like this another one year and then getting stabilized.

Just last or previous to last year they came out of debt by floating a follow-on equity sale at $90 (500 millions). Here after SHOP may continue to show net income (I am hoping so).

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Both SHOP and NTNX are bets against Bezos. You guys have more guts than I do.

Bozos can acquire SHOP and set up HQ2 in Ottawa :grinning: don’t ask me whether it meets the criteria :sweat_smile: 5% of fund in SHOP is insignificant to be worried about.

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No, they are both complimentary. SHOP helps small businesses leverage Amazon and offers a lot more than just the Amazon platform. NTNX enables hybrid cloud, so a business can use AWS and their own cloud in a combined way.

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SHOP - if Amazon is the dominant channel, like 90% market share dominant, why bother with a glue platform like Shopify? Compare what Shopify offers and what Amazon FBA offers and see if Shopify lets you access every feature Amazon offers.

NTNX - only reason for its software is if enterprises maintain both public and private clouds. That’s recipe for headache. If there’s unassailable reasons for private clouds expect Amazon to move into that market. How about have Amazon ship servers to companies behind their firewall that offer same interface as public AWS? There goes the only reason of existence for NTNX.

These two are no doubt bets against Bezos. Doesn’t mean they will fail per se. Just be mindful of what they mean.

Market share of … global retail market? global online retail? US retail market? US online retail?
What is current AMZN’s market share and rate of increase? To assess the threat, we need to know what is the current state :slight_smile:

AMZN is god? Touches everywhere? Every industry is an opportunity? How about search? How about social networks for e-commerce shoppers?

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200 shares
STO 2 covered calls (Nov 17 $65)
BTO 2 calls (LEAPS 19 $50)

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Here is true skeptical report on SHOP. Unless SHOP improves profitability and becomes profitable going forward, it does not hold for long…

Source:MotleyFool

Last year and this year, BABA growth is better than AMZN ! For the first time, I am thinking to buy BABA now.

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I bought baba in its IPO day. $90 per share… cha Ching!!! :rofl:

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Does anyone here use Robinhood? I am trying to figure out how to easily calculate YTD gain/loss on Robinhood to determine any tax loss harvest planning for the year. Any pointers?

Can you sell me some at IPO price :blush:

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How to harvest loss when you always make gains?
Jokes aside, the usual way is sell losses 30 before end Dec i.e. by late Nov, and don’t trade that counter till next year.
Gain can be sold any time… take short-term gain before long term gain, if possible because short-term is taxed more than long term capital gain.

With growth stocks I don’t care about profitability. I look at gross margin which that table doesn’t even have. It’s a better indicator of profit potential, since it’s normal for R&D to be very high as a percent of revenue in the rapid growth phase. That will level out as a company scales. The worst thing a rapidly growing company can do is under spend on R&D. If gross margin is low, then there’s zero chance of becoming highly profitable.

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Gross margin means the product is highly profitable.
Losses mean business’ overhead is too high.
Then we need to examine what are these overhead,
R&D - Ok for startup or change in strategic direction or readying a potential blockbuster
Capex - AMZN’s style

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