Snapchat to IPO in March 2017


#1

Snap will be worth more than 25B on its first day. Meanwhile Twitter is down to 14B and change.

Uber, where are you?


#2

Good for flippers… buy buy buy


#3

Snap is really unconventional. They don’t behave like traditional tech companies. They are more like Apple, with a founder than has an intuitive product sense.

I will probably buy some Snap shares…


#4

Snap spectacles look cooler than Google’s glass :slight_smile:


#5

Right! And they have a perfect and single-minded use case: to put videos on your Snapchat account.

Contrast with Google Glass which tried to do everything but managed to do nothing well.


#6

$350M revenue… That’s crazy. They’ll need to double revenue for 5-6 years in a row to justify the valuation. It’s amazing how crowded the data and ad space is getting. It’s really a zero sum game. Everyone Is fighting for better ways to steer customers to buy their products. I think Amazon has it right actually selling all the products.


#7

Well, that’s what they said about Facebook too way back when. At one point $FB traded at $19.


#8

Well… I hate such businesses but nobody care about what I think :joy: . Sell ads have always been big business. Long ago, news paper, journals, magazines, radio, TVs, cinemas, … now all these tech companies stole their cheese

Apple tries to resist selling ads just like they discourage games on Mac… making life easy for PC manufacturers.


#9

FB roars up after they successfully transition to mobile :grinning:


#10

They transitioned to mobile and became even better at selling ads! Those ads that auto play in your timeline without you clicking on them.


#11

Snapchat already has offices in Seattle and New York and London. And no office in SF or SV yet?


#12

I don’t understand why Snapchat would be worth that much more than Twitter. To me it’s even more useless than Twitter.


#13

Twitter is a great product for news junkies like me. But for everybody else it’s pointless. I considered buying TWTR couple years back. I took a look at their financials and saw what they did with their stock comp. It’s truly outrageous. They are robbing shareholders in broad daylight to enrich themselves. I passed.

Apparently all their suiters concluded likewise and bailed. Twitter is left all alone at the altar.


#14

Snap chat only has ~300 employees.

The issue I see is FB, google, snap chat, Instagram, twitter, pandora, etc are all competing for the same pie of add money. How much is that pie growing per year? It’s not quite a zero sum game, but it’s a slowly growing one. You can only grow fast if you disrupt and rapidly grab market share. How long can anyone maintain disruption? FB is smart going into more than just ads.

Corporate spending is 15% of our $17T GDP. That’s $2.5T/yr. Even if 20% of that is spent on advertising it’s a $500B/yr market. What’s the market cap of the top 5 tech ad companies? Amazon’s addressable market is 70% of $17T or an order of magnitude and then some bigger.


#15

Waiting for airbnb IPO whenever that happens. :slight_smile:


#16

Snapchat does have an office in SF. :slight_smile: I guess they’re still in stealth mode.


#17

I think Uber will IPO in 2017. It has grown so big already, and VC’s are itching to cash out. So I’d say mid to late 2017. Maybe AirBnB too? If so 2017 will be a golden age of tech mega-IPO’s.


#18

Where do you think these new millionaires look to buy SF>peninsula>Oakland>sbay ??


#19

If economy is going good, Uber will go IPO. Otherwise, it may be held as private. AirBnB may follow Uber.

Snapchat is a failure IPO if it goes IPO. This can not be compared with FB. Snapchat lost its value when they declined FB offer ! IMO, That is the end of SnapChat. If economy gets hit, (If interest rate is hiked!), snapchat may become bankrupt even.

AirBnB and Uber may survive by the business model they have.

We have to wait and see!


#20

I have many friends at these places, so I could chime in.

For Uber, some of them are already looking for places in Mission Bay(near their new HQ), Alameda, and some even Hunter’s point. But these guys are currently money hungry (their base salaries are under market price except those who joined after 2015 who got much less equity), and most younger ones (which is vast majority) can’t buy a house yet. When they go IPO, I’d guess a big change in market.

AirBnB - I’d expect they would go to Mission, Hayes Valley, even Potrero Hills. These guys are even younger than Uber employees (the place is filled with folks who can’t drink) but the company culture is fairly hippie. I don’t expect them to be taking caltrain anywhere… :slight_smile:

Snapchat is a bit more mature, at least in SF office. They have been hiring in a stealth mode, targeting mostly well-established places (Google, Facebook, …). Senior members already own houses in Southbay, and some are commuting to SF from places like Los Gatos. I don’t know if they’ll move to SF due to their kids going to schools in Southbay, but it surely won’t last forever… But a bit younger ones (late 20s~ early 30s) may or may not own homes in South bay. If they do, it’ll be a small condo / THs in Mountain View (94043 ish), Palo Alto (near 101/Oregon). These guys will go up to SF if they go to IPO, or mayyybe San Mateo near the caltrain.