AAPL and Apple

Above post is dated Dec 2017 in response to a comment. Recent death knell articles comprises one to four of above themes.

73 from Forbes, yes that :face_with_symbols_over_mouth: Forbes.

The End Of Apple

Another article talking about the plateau-ing portion of the S curve… essentially theme d. The plateau has started in 2015, so far Apple manages it quite well till the tariff war that causes China economy to decline much faster than expected from Nov 2018 + anti-Apple sentiments because of the early Dec 2018 arrest of Huawei CFO (Jim Cramer said is an uncharted territory when ask what is the impact on Apple). Apple has been able to compensate for the S-curve with slightly higher price iPhone X series, growth of services (App store, Apple Care, Apple Pay, iCloud, Apple Music, licensing, impending Apple Video Streaming, future healthcare services), stars (Air Pods, Apple Watches) and wild cats (HomePods, future healthcare/ AR products) and controlling the rise of operational & HR expenses (building Apple campuses in other tech hubs is a cost control as well as go where the talents are measure).

Expect a short-term retracement after hitting $162… not dropping below $153 is bullish… below $149 is bearish.

Apple Watch and Healthcare

Apple Watches Could Be Covered by Insurance, In Boost To Wearables Sector

Apple in talks to bring subsidized Apple Watch to Medicare Advantage members

WEARABLE TECH Apple Watch to be used in stroke prevention research

Will Health Insurers Subsidize the Apple Watch?

Apple is Reportedly in Talks with Private Medicare Insurers about Subsidizing Apple Watch Series 4

Now, Apple wants the blessing of some of the country’s biggest health insurers, and some have already begun subsidizing the Apple Watch, which retails for $399, or $499 for the model that connects directly to cellular service.

Apple is said to be in talks with a number of private Medicare plans to subsidize the cost of the Apple Watch for people older than 65, according to a report by CNBC.

Not old enough to get the subsidy.

Many big insurers provide Medicare Advantage plans – which are run by private insurers that receive government payments for providing Medicare services to seniors. These plans have the latitude to approve devices like the Apple Watch if they can demonstrate a benefit to plan participants.

There’s a pool of more than 19 million seniors who participate in these plans, providing a fertile field for Apple.

Max market potential = 19M * $400 = $7.6B :+1: What would be the initial penetration? Max? Obviously revenue is not large enough for manch.

Tom and David just revealed their ten top stock picks for investors to buy right now. Apple made the list – but there are 9 other stocks you may be overlooking.


I have posted the article already and gave an explanation, sorry you are too slow.
It seems you only care about what you have to shout out and don’t read/ignore what others said/ posted.

Updated a s-curve diagram posted moons ago.

I have visuals of what you have said. If not for the sudden drop due to tariff war/ CFO issue/telcos subsidy, revenue of AirPod/ Apple Watch/ Services is sufficient to compensate for the plateau-ing iPhone. Articles claiming Apple is not doing anything about the plateau-ing have intentionally ignored the AirPod/ Apple Watch/ Services, and the current R&D in AR/Healthcare products & services or they are deaf and blind.

Patience :grinning: I would add in iMessage. Jony Ives is in charge of UI now, he is supposed to have understood SJ and hence able to produce same design as SJ. No?

He better or the hardware premium will disappear over time. Siri is over 7 years old… Apple maps is over 6 years old. I’m not optimistic. They really botched it not buying Waze.

Why Apple Chose Austin, Seattle and Culver City for Its New Jobs Push

Adding staff in Culver City, Seattle and San Diego supports move into services and pricier hardware

  • Culver City gives Apple a Hollywood homebase as it pushes into video programming.
  • Seattle is a machine-learning hub where it can develop algorithms that personalize streaming-music playlists and improve Siri.
  • San Diego and Austin offer semiconductor engineers who can advance the customized-chip efforts that help Apple wring more money out of its iPhones, iPads and Macs.

The mix of software and services and higher prices are key to Apple’s effort to offset slowing iPhone unit sales.
Aside from the political goodwill, the job expansion outside Silicon Valley could help Apple diversify beyond the iPhone.

Slow progress of Siri, Maps and iMessage could be because talented SWEs are poached by AMZN :wink:, GOOG and FB.

Wow, I didn’t realize AAPL was hiring in Seattle too.

Are you ready to be poached by Apple?

Software is all about people. Can this guy attract talented ML/ AI SWEs to join Apple?

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Service software is all about constant refinements and frequent iterations. Hardware is the opposite. You need to make sure your release is close to perfect because mistakes are costly to fix.

The two development models are polar opposite. It’s hard for a company to be good at both. Google is great on service software but it’s hardware like phones aren’t that great. Apple is the opposite.

It’s imprinted in the company’s dna. Not fixable by one or two guys at the top.

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Nah. As long as Bezos is running things, I’m good. If he decides to quit to be a playboy, then I’ll have to think about things.

After Apple, I worked 2 places without a visionary founder running them. Both turned from solid growth to declining revenue. Too much tech compensation is stock, so it pays to be at a growth company. Declining revenue is actually more stessful, since it’s a totally negative type of stress. Trying to scale and keep up with growth is exciting.

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Cramer on China

In his morning column over on Real Money , Cramer weighed in on China’s weakness and what it could mean:

Either way, the weakness in China improves the prospect of a trade deal – provided that the Chinese somehow become willing to acknowledge that they steal IP. I bet they are trying to figure out how to show that they do.

The solution is pretty easy: Grant our companies the rights to operate independently of China, be willing to prosecute those who steal, including the execs who run Xiaomi, and then let the telcos offer subsidies for Apple (AAPL - Get Report) phones on par with domestics, and it’s a done deal.

Jim Cramer demands China telcos to offer the same subsidy for China handset makers to Apple :wink: Articles that insisted iPhone X series is too expensive for China consumers conveniently ignore this subsidy.

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Cramer is just a showman. Stop listening to the moron.

So you think that is fare trade? What if US carriers only gave subsidies for iPhone and Pixel?

You mean fair trade like in US where Huawei handsets can’t even be sold?

That’s really your rebuttal? How many foreign companies sell cell phones in the US without a problem? Huawei is the only one banned. Also, other countries are banning them. That would indicate the problem is specifically Huawei.

Apple is the most Admired company

Apple Pay Expanding into Jack in the Box, Target, Taco Bell and more top US retail locations

Finally :dart:

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Are you just fishing the internet for comforting news? :smile:


OK, here’s another comforting piece for you:

Apple: Will What Happened In China Stay In China?


Mark Hibben is a straight shooter. He’s one of a handful of authors I read regularly on SA.