AAPL and Apple

You mean consumers are in record CC debt pretty much every year since credit cards came out? And yet we are still OK?

The entire gaming industry is mostly just buying and selling virtual goods. Apple is now trying to sell you a $3500 device to immerse yourself in a virtual world. I don’t get the doom and gloom.

Of course you get time. You just choose to spend it on something else.

A well reasoned piece is long by definition. Where else can you put your reasoning?

Some are predicting metaverse spend will exceed real world spend. Those sort of predictions are insane. CC debt actually declines during recession. People spend like crazy during good times, because they are overly optimistic. Even people who don’t lose their job spend less in a recession.

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Watching TV serials and movies where I can see many pretty women is more worthwhile.

Eager to watch live stream such as above in spatial computing environment.

Competition is too costly. Joined to form a single streaming. Guess would be available for Vision Pro in spatial computing environment.

FIFY.

Current form factor offers two compelling features:
a. One very large or many smaller displays
b. Privacy, people can’t see what you’re working on

So this form factor is unlikely to be replaced as Apple pushes out other form factors.

I predict Apple will sell every unit they can make in 2024, and that quantity is on Apple’s ability to manufacture enough to meet demand. My supply chain contacts suggest that in 2024, Apple can produce between 250K and 400K at best.

https://twitter.com/dannycheng2022/status/1756343191954202657


Screen Shot 2024-02-12 at 7.21.00 AM
46% higher? That’s much? Btw, please don’t make obvious typo, 78.3 or 78.1?

An important metric is how many people still use their vision pro after 3 months.


Just a reviewer.

You need a degree from Harvard to just use vision pro?

Not sure where Aravind goes to school but dude is a CEO.

It means Apple is regarded as the King.

Every sons and daughters of mothers and fathers want to show the world that they are worth something. The crudest way is to make bold statements.

:question:

Microsoft is the new king. They are careful enough to not say Nvidia will be worth more than Microsoft.

They know MSFT won’t sit for long.

I see the Apple cult is still going strong.

Apple has the most risks among big techs. I exclude Tesla here as it’s not a tech company. Some of Apple’s challenges:

  1. Monopoly regulatory risks.
  2. Years behind in AI.
  3. Huge exposure to China whose economy is in a death spiral.
  4. iPhones on the flat part of S curve.

I don’t think AVP will stop Apple’s slow decline. One because it’s overshooting the market and super expensive. Cost won’t come down meaningfully in the next 2 years at least, likely longer. And Zuck is a great copying machine and he now has a great product to copy from. Zuck will get good before Apple gets cheap.

Tag: AAPL is doom analysis. Feb 12, 2024.

Thank you for your permabear analysis.

Lol. You’ve been bearish on AAPL since the start of the thread. It was $38.72. Now it’s $187.15. What stock have you owned the last 5 years that beats that?