AAPL and Apple

I can only reason a company’s business prospect. I can’t forecast stock price. But one would hope over the long term stock price would track business performance.

I have also been bearish on Tesla’s fundamentals, but its stock has been outperforming pretty much everybody, including your beloved Apple.

My reason for being bearish on Apple’s business years ago was that there aren’t much improvement left in iPhones. I am still using an iPhone 8 everyday and I don’t see any reason to upgrade. So I reason iPhone sales should be flat going forward, and indeed that’s what happened. Apple’s revenue declined for 4 quarters in a row, and finally broke the spell in their latest report by growing a meagre 2%.

Maybe Apple’s stock price would still hold up despite not growing. I don’t know. That’s certainly possible. Just like Tesla is still a 600B company despite deteriorating fundamentals.

I am right, the market is wrong.

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Years of chip upgrade, iPhone is ready to run LLM/Gen AI :scream: on-device without relying on the-need-to-be-connected-to-the-internet ones such as ChatGPT.

You also claimed beyond meat was a tech company. You certainly have zero issue holding to your opinions no matter what information is available.

Screen Shot 2024-02-13 at 12.04.07 PM

Hmm… see through Apple’s intention. As good as spotlight with LLM? Spotlight can access iCloud.
All Macs contain a neural engine. Also, use unified memory structure which would speed up LLM AI.

Someone said the future is LLM running on devices not in data centers.

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Need more RAM/memory for on device?

Did a quick Google search. Looks like massive memory required?

Google is doing it with the Pixel 8 phone. I’m sure Apple will do it. Need GPU and memory for the GPU. It’s another reason I think we’ll see smaller models that are more specialized. It reduces the HW requirements.

I think many PC manufacturers will start selling “AI” PCs with souped up GPUs and tons of memory. They may even come with pre installed Nvidia software and open source LLM models.

Apple with its closed ecosystem will be at a disadvantage. You can’t swap out your Mac’s GPU for anything else.

Zuck on AVP. Love his passion and drive.

Difference between a company led by founder and a company led by an MBA living inside a spreadsheet.


Tag: Double down on AAPL is doom analysis. Feb 13, 2024.

Triple down.

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At least I give you detailed reasoning instead of just cult worship. “Apple will always be king” just doesn’t do it for me.


Mouth tongue debate? Whoever believe your statement didn’t follow the thread.

In other words, is like comparing game consoles with computers.

Adib didn’t follow the news. AVP is a legacy of late SJ. Concept was conceived at the same time as iPod.

…many independent software developers have embraced the new platform, too, filling in gaps, as Christian Selig did by building a YouTube app called Juno, or tackling areas that don’t have as much competition yet, like fitness, science, or mindfulness, among other things.

Juno :+1:

The growth in Vision Pro apps so soon after launch indicates that many developers in Apple’s community still see the company as offering a viable platform for their success, despite its recent anti-developer measures to make regulations like the EU’s DMA completely toothless.

Developers, developers, developers :grinning:

…Y Combinator today put out a new call for startups, and added “spatial computing” — Apple’s term for mixed reality (AR/VR) — to its list of companies it wants to fund, suggesting further growth in this market is still ahead.

Come to papa.

Rejuvenation or deadwood left behind?

Computers don’t need a social apps to breakout, why does AVP need one?
iPhone doesn’t need a social apps to breakout, why does AVP need one?

Founder vs MBA operator. As simple as that.

Steve Jobs was founder. Ballmer was an MBA operator.

Fast forward 20 years.

Zuck is founder. Tim Apple is an MBA operator.

Anyhoo, don’t think AVP moves a needle for the first three years. That is, won’t contribute meaningfully to the bottomline. Have to see how AVP evolves, if successful, should start ringing the register from 2028.

Mark could have made a positioning mistake. Expect Google, Samsung and Microsoft (and even AMZN) come out with a product wedge between AVP and Quest. Is not going to be a duopoly.