AI's Investment Implications


#562

The last few days’ price action is encouraging. Maybe MU will be able to prove the bears wrong come Thursday. :pray:


#563

@hanera, I do feel the same way, but we do not know what will happen in future.


#564

Long term is obvious.


#565

I am clear on short term jump. Long term we will know more after results announced.

Btw: I own MU and trying to add when it dips in next 2 days


#566

Too busy, didn’t do anything for stocks except talk talk.


#567

I added few MUs at 45 level. Dram prices are increasing and production supply is increasing, likely MU will definitely meet consensus, but how much exceptional results (Beyond expected) and future guidance matters.

You have one more day to act as MU is after hours. It is all up to you.


#568

Not free 2mrw whole day till market closed, too late then :frowning: In any case, I think I’m already overexposed.


#569

• Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.53 beats by $0.19; GAAP EPS of $3.56.

• Revenue of $8.44B (+37.5% Y/Y) beats by $190M.


#570

Bought some MU before market closed and bought a bit more after result came out. Let’s see what the conf call brings. :pray:


#571

Micron is a beast. Op CF over 5B for the quarter.

Fiscal Q4 2018 highlights

Revenues of $8.44 billion, up 38 percent compared with the same period last year
GAAP net income of $4.33 billion, or $3.56 per diluted share
Non-GAAP net income of $4.31 billion, or $3.53 per diluted share
Operating cash flow of $5.16 billion, compared with $3.20 billion for the same period last year

Fiscal 2018 highlights

Revenues of $30.39 billion, up 50 percent compared with the prior fiscal year
GAAP net income of $14.14 billion, or $11.51 per diluted share
Non-GAAP net income of $14.70 billion, or $11.95 per diluted share
Operating cash flow of $17.40 billion, compared with $8.15 billion for the prior fiscal year


#572

I missed the bottom at $41, but got it yesterday at $45.


#573

mu down 2%. what kind of a active hours activity is that lol.


#574

Guidance no good:

• Micron says it believes its stock is undervalued and will use cash flow to support and accelerate its buyback program.

• The company plans to start growing SSD share again in 2020 and calls next year a transition year.

• In Q4, DRAM accounted for 70% (Q3: 71%) of revenue with relatively flat ASPs. Industry DRAM is tracking slightly above 20% with Micron growing in-line.

• NAND was 26% of revenue (+15% Q/Q) with ASPs down in the mid-teens percent range, lower than expected decline. (This could prove negative for Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), (NYSE:WDC) and Seagate (NASDAQ:STX)).

• Q1 guidance includes downside revenue from $7.9B to $8.3B (consensus: $8.4B) and downside EPS of $2.87 to $3.02 (consensus: $3.06). Gross margins expected to be lower than Q4 levels or from 57% to 60%.

• Micron shares are now down 4.1% to $44.16.


#575

I bought again at $44.19 after hours. With current Micron results, the stock is too good for me. Even if goes down, I will keep buying it.

I bought again at 42.95 now.

Good Stocks, Good results, coming down after hours is an opportunity in the long run.


#576

After hours are not transacted by Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds…They are done by individuals. The prices will not reflect the value.

This is the key “our stock is undervalued and we will be deploying metrics to expedite the buyback and increase shareholder value.”


#577

There may be more short term pain. But I like their results.


#578

The tariff 10% is effective from Sep 24th, already received/contracted orders are paying customs duty as they can not pass the duty to customers.

Any new orders, they may increase the base price (to match tariff) and profit margin will come back. This is the main reason, their PM will be reduced one QTR.

After market prices are mostly panic driven or FOMO by individual users, but big funds will analyze the effect clearly and price it during day time (Friday) or exactly on Monday.

That is the main reason, I bought lot of shares after market than tomorrow day time.

With memory price going up, MU coming down is not correct

https://www.dramexchange.com/Market/market_activity


#579

Here is the Merillegde analysis and buy rating. The pdf covers wide range and this is current pre-results rating.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1wB0WXF8DoQm3T_tw_Fm__jyaTzfL1O9H

With Merrill edge, they expect a slow down on memory chip. It is confirmed by all three players Hynix, Samsung and Micron

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-20/samsung-is-said-to-plan-lower-chip-growth-to-maintain-prices


#580

Micron recovers a lot of loss from yesterday’s AH trade. It feels different this time… :pray:


#581

Once in a blue moon, you and Jil make good calls. Need more of those :slight_smile: Keep’em coming.