AI's Investment Implications


20 days ago,

Today’s close, miss the BTFD price of $26.54 :cry:



MU still has room to drop. Today’s low is $41.42. 2mrw could drop more.


There are plenty to buy, confused which one buy and which one to cancel ! I just cancelled MU GTC (additional purchase) as I needed that money for something else

I already hold enough MUs.

Market is reaching the bottom, do not think it keeps on going down. Last 2 or 3 days, I have been madly buying.

I must stop now, when I started using margin - temp margins - no matter whether it goes up or down, cancelled all GTC orders after the market is over.


Market is over means? One more peak?


After you cancel the buy order, Barron published this article Micron Stock Is Rising on Optimism for Its AI Opportunities


Market is over ==> Market is Closed.

I still own high MU shares, my one day jump on MU is the top one (Highest amount) today. Whatever I cancelled is add-on shares. My biggest loss today is TEVA, but I never bother as it is loss on my gains.


Bullish for MU. They say 7x DRAM and 2x FLASH needed for AI training.


Thank you for the good news. Heavily exposed and bloody red :blush:



Furthermore, if Samsung is right, a fundamental bottom might happen in Q1’19.

As such, Micron is on my top pick for 2019. On the one hand its stock is currently trading at a very depressed multiple, and on the other, if I am right, investors might get a multi-bagger return over the next 2-3 years.

As for my price target, I have a wild imagination and I could see $150 or more. But no matter how high Micron’s stock goes from current levels, what is important to understand is that it’s a dirt cheap stock, and it could go at least $60~$70 a share, even in the current risk off environment, and even if the market continues to correct.


Waiting to get back into my semis…


Thought you’re focusing on FB and AMZN? Change of heart again?


Yup, getting back into old positions little bit at a time. Bought some SQ, TWLO and 10c. Very tiny position though.


I have already got NVDA. Results are due Nov 15 AMC.



“I think Nvidia is going to miss the quarter, alright?” Cramer said on Oct. 13 at TheStreet’s Boot Camp for Investors in New York. "I think that no one thinks they’re going to, [but] what happened is, I think [rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD - Get Report ) ] made too many chips. The channel’s filled with AMD chips … and AMD’s trying to take business away from Nvidia [by] charging less for the chips.”

“What do you do with it right now? If you didn’t own Nvidia, it’s too soon to start buying it,” Cramer said of the company’s stock, which he used to own for his charitable trust. “There will be two more quarters of inventory problems.”

“If you do own it, I think you need to recognize that it’ll be a long time before this thing can come back. So if you can wait it out, you might want to if only because Nvidia still remains a great company and eventually they will get it right,” he added. "Sadly, though, they made a serious misjudgment about the level of demand for their product. And for that, Nvidia’s in the penalty box for a very long time.”

IMHO, is a good buying opportunity to accumulate NVDA cheap for the long term. That is, increase investment from $7k+ to $50k :slight_smile: by placing GTC buys :slight_smile: Please note that NVDA pays a dividend. The lower the price, the higher the yield, DCA purchase!

The 2nd bold statement applies to FB too. Mark would get it right eventually. He is young :slight_smile: plenty of time.


Cramer is right here ! Almost AI market is gone out of NVDA and chip sale is getting reduced. We do not know the bottom, esp rev and profits, of NVDA.

Assuming forecast amount all these companies meet,

Even with current price ($164) ROIC is 3.8% and may likely deteriorate next 2 qtrs as Cramer said.

With current price (FB $139), the ROIC is 6.3%

FB is safer than NVDA at present.

With current price (AAPL $194), the ROIC is 9.88% (comparison purpose). This is why WB has 57B in it !

The only one big company competing with AAPL is AMZN as AMZN dropped appx 25% (current price 1593 is 22.29% down) from peak.

For any purchases, do DCA at near bottom using TA. I would not touch NVDA until next quarterly result is announced.




Zuck as a war general.