Asia Pacific Stocks

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Are you insinuating Americans don’t know what is going on in China?

Judging from the posts on here I think Singapore people are particularly naive about China.

Judging from the posts on here I think (ex-)Hong Kong people are particularly full of themselves.

Sorry I am a stickler for facts. Don’t like stuff that is obviously wrong. Only takes a second to Google.

The fact that PDD is doing well while BABA is not is telling. The market is not blind and treats all Chinese stocks like garbage. That’s the narrative some pushed but it’s wrong. The market actually treats well the companies that have good prospects. PDD has more than 3X’ed from its 2022 bottom.

Did any of the Singapore Youtube boys you posted talked about PDD? Or they only know Tencent and Alibaba?

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Did the sun rises from the West? China stocks are investable :scream:

BABA is only one of them. He didn’t tell all his buys.

Btw, he is thinking of 10 to 100 baggers, not meagre 15% per year.

EWT: Best guess bullish count.
ATM, we can’t be sure is just a technical bounce due to oversold conditions. First resistance is $82.

What is the implication to China Stocks?

2024 is the year of BABA?



Looks like China is in a Japanese style lost-decades contraction. No matter what they do they can’t get themselves out of the big hole they themselves dug.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-dec-factory-activity-shrinks-more-than-expected-bodes-ill-recovery-2023-12-31/

China’s manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in December and weakened more than expected, clouding the outlook for the country’s economic recovery and raising the case for fresh stimulus measures in the new year.

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from 49.4 the previous month, an official factory survey showed on Sunday, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and weaker than a median forecast of 49.5 in a Reuters poll.

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According to Trucker Carlson, is a good thing if that is true. Life is good.

Good for the world indeed. I am not complaining.

Good for Chinese :+1: During the lost decades, life of Japanese has improved a lot while economists and western media are spreading FUDs.

I have said many times we both are big fans of Xi.

I am merely pointing out there are many people whose opinions differ from you. Btw, in case you can’t follow conversation, below is what Trucker opined,

That’s not my opinion.

Unlike you I often have my own opinions.

:smile:

If the Chinese lost decades ended up having the same effects as the Japanese one I think it’s also a good thing. It will be good for the world and good for the Chinese people. The trouble is that I don’t think they will have similar effects. You first have to compare the starting conditions of both and see if they are roughly equal. And the conditions are vastly different.

But suppose the effects would be similar then that would be a good thing. I agree with that.

Since so many of our manufactured goods come from China it could also be a sign that our own economy isn’t as strong as some folks seem to believe. Our own PMI stands at about 53 last I checked - down from 56 a year ago.

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US imports in total is actually up, but China’s share goes down.

One reason is China’s business environment has deteriorated. I don’t think many Western executives like the idea of being arbitrarily arrested and locked in jail for years without trials, like what happened to the two Michael’s.

Another reason is a concerted effort from the West to limit Chinese imports. Most of the Trump tariffs are still in effect, and Biden gave plenty of subsidies for plants to reshore. You can see that in EV and semiconductors. Starting tomorrow Tesla will lose the 7500 federal EV subsidies for cars that don’t use domestic batteries.

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I said China is in its lost decades right now. It’s not a prediction. I am just describing facts happening right now.

This quote feels off so I Google it. Turns out it’s a bad translation of:

知者不言 言者不知

Lao Tzu said the people who know the ultimate truth won’t tell because you can’t put it into words. So those who speak don’t tell the ultimate truth.