$280K target is low. Retail hasn’t even FOMO yet.
Ride the wave.
Bitcoin might have peaked, ethereum has just started. Spot etfs trade using COIN 
Black rock is seeking approval for spot etf for ethereum.
I experience tons of seller remorse for selling 50% of COIN at ridiculously low price.
My updated EW target is $320! Buy back or not! Indecision as usual.
Those stocks that work, 
relentlessly, seem to have some folks PANIC BUYING.
COIN is climbing almost as vertically as NVDA. So are other crypto, semi and AI stocks.
How should we interpret?
Bitcoin got rejected at $70k
Ethereum got rejected at $4k
To me that’s bullish. Tells me we are still far from crazy bubble territory. Market still has scars and fear from the last bear market.
Once we break free from ATH and in price discovery mode, BTC and ETH will go vertical as people FOMO in.
Still not in euphoria? Everybody are aware and can invest in bitcoin through spot etfs.
True euphoria happens when people are taking insane leverage to trade shit coins. We aren’t there yet.
Shitcoins are rallying now… don’t know whether traders are using leverage. Could be selling BTC and buy shitcoin.
I think we can talk about euphoria only after price is far above past ATH. As of now BTC has trouble staying above past ATH and ETH hasn’t even gotten there. A bit premature to use the bubble word.
Hopefully later this year.
Problem with using ATHs is that those ATHs are achieved when rates are f… low. Shouldn’t we rate-adjust (normalized) previous ATHs? Crypto has no cashflows to speak of, can’t use DCF, need to rate-adjust.
Use Manch’s rule: Only ask bubble or not after 2x previous ATH.
Until then it’s just buying opportunity.
Every four years, there would be a blowoff top follow by a crash.
With spot etfs, how would above change?
The assumption is existing bitcoin holders won’t sell with the belief that there is limited stock and given potential huge demand from those who haven’t bought, price would skyrocket through time. So long investors continue to hoard, this assumption will hold.
Question is what will frighten these holders to sell?
We have $1B of new ETF money buying BTC everyday. And next month it will be 2x as difficult to create a new BTC after halving. It’s difficult for price to not go to the moon.
There will be huge crash after this bubble pops. Bubble always pops. There is no exception. But we are still months away from popping I think. Could be wrong of course.
