I do not know what for you are quoting this, but economy (GDP) went down 5.8% and 32% during the last 2 quarters.
Stocks are at V shaped recovery, anomaly with economy - vest interest from market makers/banks with the help of FED, and they are at peak cycle which I guess now. By using mean reversion principle, stocks will align with economy soon. I strongly believe in it.
For that matter, entire world wide (euro,asia and us regions) stocks reversion will be coming.
Maybe but the v shape refers to the stock market like in the violent drop in 1987.
The economy is hurting. But the average Joe is benefiting from the current stimulus.
Joe Biden wants to give everyone a guaranteed min $1000-$2000 month. This could keep this fake boom going for years. Definitely bullish for the economy and landlords. Not so good for savers with money in the bank.
Try finding an appliance, boat or RV. Plus vacation property is skyrocketing in value. Backlog on air conditioners, refrigerators… 8 weeks.
New Mastercraft boats are back ordered one year out.
I can attest to the refrigerator backlog. I recently had to replace 3. Very hard to find reasonably priced fridges that’s not backlogged. Ended up buying from sears outlet which are just slightly cheaper than brand new ones but with scratches and dents, only because they are available right away.
Personal opinion: I am 100% convinced Trump is better than Biden. Trump means aggressive steps/pulls back possible with current FED. Biden means tax as solution and recovery is under struggle with Obama like old methodologies without proper understanding.
If this discussion about politics (Trump vs Biden), please ignore this.
I have some doubt on real economic recovery as it needs long years (with FED support) to go back to normal.
Without entertainment, travel, expenses by the consumers must be less.
The category mix changed. No one is doubting that. However, total consumer spending was higher yr/yr. Just look at how much some categories have increased. COVID definitely created categories of winners and losers.
Plus, the personal savings rate is high. That means once people are confident then they’ll have extra cash to spend.