Let’s pray that @Jil prognosis of Black Monday Aug 31 2mrw is wrong! However, take note that historically stock market peaked in Aug and down swoop from there into Sep.
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I was secretly whispering to myself the market crash will come in October.
Should we have some warning shots first at least? Like high flyers such as SHOP and TSLA breaking down hard first? Both are still flying high.
Again tried to get some stats. With 40+ millions unemployed, it is hard to increase the spending. They government unemployment benefits won’t help in the long run.
Here is the source: United States Consumer Spending
Here is how consumer spending changed by covid.
You keep referencing quarterly numbers.
Treasury is so short of $$$ that,
Trump wants to extort ByteDance. Not good enough as early warning?
Biden doesn’t want to change economic measures put in place by Trump. Not good enough as early warning?
Politicians have all the the real numbers. So listen between the lines what they did and said. Is better than analyzing massaged published publicly available numbers.
All those are just talks. I don’t think Trump will get anything from the TikTok sale, even if the sale went thru. The Chinese just published some new policy forbidding exports of certain technology. So TT may just get outright banned in the US without ByteDance making a single cent.
Treasury is not short of money. They can always print more. Interests rate is so low it’s practically zero. People don’t mind lending money to the US government.
I am more worried about Congress can’t make a deal on the next round of stimulus. Without that Life support the US economy will crash.
In the crash of 1987, warnings came in August.
Talks reflect their inner thoughts. I see you no understanding. Never mind then.
Warning shot was 6.2% single day drop on Jun 11th !
Economy is already going through the issues, but stock market (including news/media/tv) hiding those issues by having crazy bull runs.
News/Media/TV are behind circulations, their own profit numbers and they provide all bullish news when market is up as it increases their collections. They won’t report anything negative until market crashes.
https://www.trpropresearch.com/pdf/This_Week_In_Earnings.pdf/
20Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be -30.5%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is -23.9%.
Now, they (Market makers) need to bring down suddenly so that retail investors can not take any action and all retails money goes to them !
Let us watch the fun…
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Don’t they need to secure the puts first?
You can always backdate your warnings after the fact.
Since you are a buy and hold guy, why are you even bothering with signals? Just sit tight and that’s it?
That’s what I am doing for my buy n hold portfolio 
You want me to follow your bad habit?
Now only you are asking this question !
They are doing that since Aug 17, 2020 onwards and Aug 26th onwards very aggressive - 3 days in a row ,almost 60% of time, continuously vix was getting up and up when S&P, Nasdaq was also going up…
Since everyone is happy making money with calls, MMs are silently buying puts too.
Watch out tomorrow too, if market is up 50% of the time vix will also be up. Retailers will be glad to buy calls and sell it for profit (reddit words: Stonks only go up ! )
Reddit Posting on Aug 28, 2020 (before vix was coming down)
BTW: All these are guess work, nothing guaranteed. This is for my discussion purpose, but not a stock advice, neither financial advice, Anything you do on stock market, you are on your own.
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When in doubt buy RE
