Who cares where they were invented? I care about where these technologies are commercialized and who is driving growth.
Apple has built a $1T+ business. You can argue that valuation represents a bubble but boy are they making a lot of money. Same goes for Google, Facebook, Netflix, and many others. Are they all in a bubble?
If there is a downturn, how deeply do you think a stock like Apple or Google will get discounted? In that situation how will these companies deploy their MASSIVE cash war chests? Will they invest into the downturn like they have in the past and pick up discounted labor and companies? Or do you think they will slowly become irrelevant?
Answer one question: If you believe that California is in decline, why are you here? Again, cost of living, traffic, inefficient government are all really good reasons to leave if you believe California is in decline. Why are you sticking around?
I was ready to leave. Husband wanted to stay because the jobs are good and one of our kids is in a unique school we need him in. You can have an eye for leaving while staying. Neither of us expect to stay here beyond retirement we just donât know where weâd move to until our kids settle somewhere. I tell them not to settle here and explain why.
If you donât like the political climate, thereâs always two hopesâ
other idiots like it and will move here thus keeping your property values high
the sheeple will wake up and vote differently.
Even if we were to lose value in our house, weâre still making a lot more than weâd make in the Mid-west. So if you buy a $2M house, and you lose $200K on it, youâve still made that back in income over a two or three years. So you get in, get $$ and run. Housing isnât the only money maker, tech jobs are also.
Nothing wrong with keeping an eye on the exits. I may not retire in California either. I donât think weâre talking about retirement here. BTW the fact that your husband wanted to stick around for the higher pay/job opportunities speaks volumes.
Iâm responding to the idea that California is in terminal decline and is no longer the place the best and brightest want to be. As I said in my earlier post, I think there are several unique factors that make California conducive to growth.
The only other place I see comparable growth is in China. Obviously living there comes with a whole different set of trade offs.
Whatâs lost is a tiny section of California is prospering while most of the state is decaying. Weâre talking third world conditions with water rationing and power blackouts.
The political powers in Sacramento want to extract as much money as possible from SV to fund all their pet projects. They care more about giving illegals healthcare than funding pensions for state employees. Meanwhile, they pat themselves on the back for being so woke.
No one talks about Californiaâs unfunded pension liabilities. The attitude is that itâs no big deal and will be fine. Thatâs woefully ignorant of the scale of the issue and math involved (especially since the pension fund consistently underperforms the S&P 500 while paying high administrative costs).
Sacramento celebrates a budget surplus while growing the pension liability. If the pension liability is growing during this bull market, whatâs going to happen next bear market? The state canât just print money to cover it.
Then thereâs the city issues. Good luck finding a city that doesnât have 5%+ revenue growth from property taxes despite prop 13. Yet, theyâll all say revenue isnât growing fast enough despite 2% inflation. If you look at the financials, youâll see the percent of budget going to pensions has doubled or tripled in the last 10 years. Thatâs why they donât have enough money, and pensions are still underfunded.
Weâve already learned bankruptcy doesnât erase pension obligations, so how are the state and cities going to fund their pensions? Theyâll either have to dramatically slash other budgets or dramatically increase taxes.
Still canât comprehend why still not invested fully in index fund. Is some1 benefiting from investing in actively-managed funds?
Bloggers like @manch doesnât care because they think there will be increasingly more and more startups that will generate enough taxes for Sacramento to spend.
The people running pension funds arenât measured on performance. Their answer is the same as always. The solution is to increase taxes to cover their financial mismanagement.
The issue not being addressed is startups are becoming high market cap with far fewer employees than prior companies. That means wealth is more concentrated. I donât see how that benefits people that are bullish on housing.
The other amazing irony is the people advocating about this didnât make their wealth working for a startup or FAANG company. They simply bought RE and got lucky they were living in the Bay Area. Their strategy worked, since they happen to live in the one part of the entire country where it did. Now they think thatâll last forever, since of course it was all skill and not luck.
Are you ready to talk about the decay of America? Time to short America?
People blinded by ideology like to interpret everything in political lens. We have a system here. It has strengths and weaknesses. If you want to say California is in terminal decline you need to give reasons why your pet issue is going to overwhelm everything else.
Did you follow your own advice? And your conclusion is that Californiaâs politics will outweigh all of its other resources and set it on a path of terminal decline?
Yes, I do follow my own advice. And that is why I suggest others to do the same. I have a feeling we will capture it before California falls very low. My only fear is when and whether before significant irreversible damages are done to the state. But, a start has to be made somewhere. Just as the USA is reversed the course and heading right, I have feeling California will do the same as more and more people become aware of the issues and they begin feeling the bite of destructive California politics.
I believe in hard work and fighting. So, chances are I might stay and fight, Rather than run away.
Yes, lot of people will piggy back hard work of people who will fight the destruction. The word economist use for this idea is positive externality. It is like saying the people who do not pay taxes also benefits from national defense or public property like roads. So, everyone will benefit from improved political climate.
Thatâs rich from you since your only metric is market cap of local companies. You literally donât care about crime rates, homelessness, schools, blackouts, water rationing, or anything else. Thatâs all acceptable collateral damage, since your chosen metric is all that matters.
You realize the only point you countered was pensions by saying others have the same issue. You might want to research that one a bit more.
You âcounteredâ everything else by apparently waving your hand and saying they donât matter.
You may have mistaken me for another guy. I am not that obsessed with market cap. But as a measure of economic strength thatâs not a bad metric.
Speaking of unfunded pensions, tell me how is that unique to California:
There are only two ways to deal with pension problem. One: stop giving new government employees pension, and two, start funding them and that means raising taxes. Thatâs how having world leading companies based in CA helps. Iâd be more worried about Alaska and Arkansas.
About homelessness, CA doesnât have more homeless than other places, what we are doing wrong is we failed to house them. Again, not the doom and gloom Fox News would like to portray:
The biggest problem in CA is housing. We need to build more and build denser. I am happy to see the political mood is starting to change. We now have a vibrant YIMBY movement.
There is only one logical conclusion for anyone who thinks CA is in terminal decline: sell your CA assets and move your money away.
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Many (including myself) have done just that and are not looking back. Every decade a million more people leave CA then come. Silicon Valley is coasting on itâs past. No longer a hotbed of innovation. Dominated by monoliths like Facebook and Google which do nothing but trade in your personal information. Itâs Detroit in the late 70âs. Itâs heyday has long passed; it will still take a while for folks to realize it. When thereâs poop in the street and the utility turns off your electricity every time the wind blows - and smoke from fires in unmanaged wildlands pours through every summer and fall - there are real problems. When no one who works with their hands can afford to live in an area - thereâs problems. Economies need to be diversified. The BA isnât anymore.
Lol, so your rebuttal is California has the second worst pension problem and 5th worst rate of homelessness. That hardly sounds like a magical wonderland thatâs better than everywhere else. Itâs amazing that with all its natural resources and advantages California is getting smoked by the vast majority of states.
If I remember you were among the the ones who started with the idea that the CA is land of milk and honey. Nice climb down though. Next, you should work hard to make it the best.
