Trade wars already flaring. No longer impending.
expecting a further drop tomorrow? today’s drop was a bit too harsh.
I am not smart enough to predict any short term movements. I just react.
Change of FED rate ! US is credit based economy, direct impact earnings as companies go for short term borrowing than long term fixed !!
Those are known factors, markets always take those into it’s valuations. Unknowns/Unexpected are what matters.
What is your FOMO reaction? BTFD or liquidate to prevent margin call?
Yeah, what was the reaction?
Entire statement is wrong, that is why many here are crying without understanding what is going on !
Unless people understand the real truth, they can not survive this wind, keep losing money continuously.
You’re smarter than the stock market? where thousands of experts are being paid to manage portfolios.
What is the real truth?
Didn’t you put 85% in one stock after going into cash for 2 months? Do you know what kind of RISK that is?
I sold some last night in HK and again sold some in US today. Whenever my accounts value dips near or below a certain threshold I force myself to sell some. Altogether I sold maybe around 5%?
But I continue to buy some REIT like I did every week, and some GOOS because it’s above my threshold.
I do not compare myself with others, and I never care those “experts are being paid to manage portfolios” as they do not need to disclose outside world whatever they buy and sell (other than 13F).
It is my money and I need to be smarter, in absolute terms. I have many times told this here, investing is for our growth, but not to compare with anyone else.
It is easier to ask single line question, but can not be answered similar way. Read good investing books like “Margin of Safety” page by page till the end, not the single chapter alone. If you understand the concepts fully, you will not ask this question !
You do not need to question my decision to counter your statement. I know 100% what I am doing as this my money !
I’d get more long, but I’m closing in 5 weeks. I think the long-term upward trend is still good.
Speed of drop of cow kings is very fast. Considering buying SPLK and NOW. Should I?
why 5 weeks?
Ok dude you’re Yoda of stocks
The thing I don’t get is the selloff is everything including companies that don’t have a material amount of revenue in China or import raw materials. How much does this really impact US software companies who get most of their revenue from the US?
I try to show forum members some reasons behind it, many do not believe it and many do not like it. if they do not like it, ignore this
The China + Trump issue never comes to an end. The issue is around the assumption that market sags based on China issue. This is one of the reasons, but FED actions are main reason. In addition, all blogs/analysts/news media propagates it is Trump who brings down the market like the way they portrayed “Hillary Win”.
What if market goes up tomorrow? Some analysts say “Market absorbed 200 bln tariff…blah…blah…blah”
The real sell off is around FED rate hike and this exactly happens within 15 days of rate hike in March and Jun. This is very calculated moves by big funds, hedge funds, investment bank…etc.
They run algorithms to identify debt rich companies and the impact of revenues on them, then get rid of their long holding. HFT algorithms propagates everywhere across all companies. No investment banks, nor big funds, nor hedge funds openly declare what they are doing it. But they are the market movers and they allocate, rotate funds to low risk equities and get rid of high risk speculative companies.
This year 2018 is an opportunity to educate our-self how market is behaving and how analysts/news are wrongly portraying events happening around us. I have exactly noticed this in year 2000 and year 2008 period.
If people do not believe this, let us wait for next two rate hikes, It is very likely happen in next two rate hikes too (This is pure guess work based on my previous cycle experience).
Companies with zero debt are being sold though. The algo trading is mostly on big ETFs, so it indiscriminately sells everything in the ETF. It doesn’t matter if the individual stock is impacted by the news or not. That’s where bargains are found.
The amplified impact of EFTs was visible during the 36 minute May 6, 2010, Flash Crash that resulted loss of $1 trillion in market value.
When market Ups or Downs, ETFs algos affect everything, it is just programming. When zero debt companies are going down, it is an opportunity to buy.
Yes, buy zero debt, not those in debt and have negative cashflow i.e. need continual equity injection.