Are you saying “no clear evidence” is not used in the healthcare science world? Anyhoo, I doubt public understands what is statistical significance.
Am I right to say that you’re saying China is not sure at that time? That would be similar to former Director CDC, Tom Frieden’s view.
Five days later, WHO was informed there is human2human transmission.
MIT paper for the PhDs here.
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has spread rapidly to multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. While influenza virus has been shown to be affected by weather, it is unknown if COVID19 is similarly affected. In this work, we analyze the effect of local weather on the transmission of the 2019-nCoV virus. Our results indicate that 90% of the 2019-nCoV transmissions have so far occurred within a certain range of temperature (3 to 17C) and absolute humidity (4 to 9g/m3) and the total number of cases in countries with mean Jan-Feb-March temperature >18C and and absolute humidity >9 g/m3 is less than 6%. Current data indicates that transmission of 2019-nCoV virus might have been less efficient in warmer humid climate. We could not differentiate which of the two environmental factors is more important, however, given the tight range of absolute humidity (4 - 9g/m3) across which the majority of the cases are observed, and previous associations between viral transmission and humidity, we believe that absolute humidity might play a bigger role in determining the spread of 2019-nCoV. Theoretical calculations suggest that absolute humidity is always lower than 9 g/m3 for temperature less than 15C and for temperatures between 15 and 25 C, the relative humidity has to be >60% for absolute humidity to be >9g/m3. Therefore if humidity plays a bigger role than temperature, then the chances of 2019-nCoV transmission slowing down due to environmental factors would be fairly limited for regions above 35 degree N due to environmental factors. On the other hand, Asian countries experiencing monsoon from mid-June can see a slowdown in transmission. On the contrary if temperature is more important, then most of the northern hemisphere should see a slow down in the spread of the 2019-nCoV with the approaching summer temperatures. Our hypothesis is based on currently available data and its validity will automatically be tested in the next few weeks with reporting of new cases across the world. The relation between temperature and humidity and 2019-nCoV cases should be closely monitored and if a strong environmental dependence in the spread of 2019-nCOV exists then it should be used to optimize the 2019-nCoV mitigation strategies. Our results in no way suggest that 2019-nCoV would not spread in warm humid regions and effective public health interventions should be implemented across the world to slow down the transmission of 2019-nCoV.
Steven Hoffman, director of the Global Strategy Lab and a global health professor at York University.
Hoffman added, noting there’s no evidence, at this time, that they’re withholding information.
Tom Frieden, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likened the potential misreporting to the “‘fog of war’ early in an outbreak.”
Quickly skimmed through the article. On point caught my attention. I do not think individualism will decline, so long as strong individualists who make a big part of the population, are around. Crises like these only encourage people to be more self-reliant. Of course left will want to sell need to have bigger and powerful government.
You might see this kind of language in a review of a series of studies that had conflicting findings but it is really poorly worded i.e. ambiguous. In any single study you are generally trying to prove or disprove a hypothesis and using statistics. Sometimes you observe a trend but the study was not adequately powered to conclude whether it was real or noise. In this case you would conclude something along the lines of “a trend towards X was noted but did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.XX). Additional work is required to understand…” This is a technically accurate way of saying that there is evidence but that it is not ‘clear.’
Did this get posted yet?
You know I thought about buying 3M a while ago. too late now…
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We must be nearing maximum fear. Saw quite a few non Asians wearing masks in the woods!
No.
UK chickened out. Which politicians want to risk their career pushing for this “herd immunity” approach?
I would favor proactive rather than reactive testing in this group, and early use of the most promising anti-viral drugs.
I feel current testing approach is reactive too.
Such is the collateral damage of this diffuse form of warfare, aimed at “flattening” the epidemic curve generally rather than preferentially protecting the especially vulnerable. I believe we may be ineffectively fighting the contagion even as we are causing economic collapse.
I am uncomfortable with this “flattening the curve” approach too.
Half of infected don’t show symptoms. They need to broaden the tests.
Test widely, trace close contacts and track the positive cases to make sure they stay home. Learn from the successful Asian countries.
Japan seems to have done this better then others after the initial cruise ship missteps. No large scale shutdowns (other then some schools), and their infected count is low despite being exposed pretty much from day one
Japanese people wear masks as their daily habit, pandemic or not.
State chart. WA has bent down the curve. I suspect CA will do so in the next week. NY has actually bent it the wrong way.
My 文宣 is working haha
I took a Coronavirus holiday today and chased around the Tonto Basin. I was rewarded with one more mule deer antler for my collection and a shot of a gorgeous DB.
Now to get cleaned up and head out to MammaJoe’s for a good Italian meal. None of the bars or restaurants in Strawberry are closed. In Payson only the chains are affected - e.g. Subway. They’re doing take-out only and closing their dining areas.
In all of Gila county - with no one panicking and nothing shutting down - we so far have zero cases of COVID-19. Thank God the economic fallout won’t be as bad here as elsewhere where everyone is gripped by blind panic.
Is this a poisonous snake? Looks like I might survive corona but not a bite of this.
