Watched the press conference. Debbie said the removal of positives from family is not acceptable in American culture. She trusts they will know how to self-quarantine. But…
So no effective quarantine for most households. Hence, confirmed cases should continue to climb at 20%-25% per day till entire family is infected… average size 3.14… for shelter-in-place states…
104256 to 1 million at 1.25 growth rate = 10 days
Edit1:
Because there are no lockdowns between States (recalled some1 proposed to do so rather than vs nations only), Americans are behaving like Native Americans, running from infected places to non-infected place e.g. from Houston to Austin and NY to NJ, spreading the disease nationwide.
Edit2: Apparently the typical bill for a 6-day hospitalization of Covid-19 disease is $73,000. If you don’t have insurance, you have to pay for it. I see why Americans are scared, high medical bills (if no insurance) + possibility of losing the job. Also, I see why no hospitalization for mild cases because is too costly - insurance companies can go bankrupt shouldering the bills. Also, I see why so many people are flying to Singapore - free test, free hospitalization, free meals - Now, no longer free for short-term visitors. Testing is still free.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have a program that will allow landlords and anyone else affected by the coronavirus to suspends their payments for 2 months without penalty. The payments get added to the end of their loan. With the stimulus bill that just passed $2400 per couple and $600 added to unemployment per week for four months, most people should not be affected.
Fortress won’t drop 50% - thinking of 20% decline from Feb to 2016 prices. @Jil is referring to San Jose. In fact, some neighborhoods drop by 90%. You can verify by randomly clicking on Zillow/historical prices of houses.
@manch Still hold your uber bullish view that property prices won’t decline in BARE?
@manch is forever too slow. Thinking of making $$$ instead of worrying about survival. Now is not the time to think of making $$$, survival FIRST. Anyhoo, there is plenty of rice in HMart and 99 Ranch - no rice in Costco.
New York’s case curve is bending down. Death toll is on steep up ramp as it’s even more of a lagging indicator. UW’s model predicts the peak will come around April 4th if I remember right. That’s next week.
CA is similar. It isn’t nearly as bad as NY to begin with. The peak won’t be as sharp and will come later.
The rest of the country, mainly red states, will be the fuel for the second stage. Michigan and Louisiana etc are rising fast.
China’s outbreak is mostly concentrated in one province only. Ours is the whole damn country.
If 50% drops are there, I guess, most of the forum viewers jump in madly and buy the real estate at deep discount level.
At present, I do not have any intention of coming back to real estate, but 50% drop even in san jose, will make me rethink my strategy to come back real estate !
Fortress won’t drop 50% => But, when RE market jumps, those fly away high !
And places like Hong Kong and Taiwan that jumped to action early with social distancing and universal mask wearing have gotten their cases under much greater control.
Debating whether to shut the barn door now that the horse is 10 miles away.