Found this data set from NYTime on Github.
So I did some basic Excel charting. Here’s daily case increase rate for CA. Flatish around 20%.
New York is next. It has been consistently trending down, now finally to sub-20%. I guess it ran out of people to infect?
Finally, New Jersey. Hovering around 40%.
All these charts and graphs on confirmed cases are misleading. My post on California shows how you can easily manipulate the number of positives by releasing partial data and park the rest under pending.
If you are comparing Newsom to Cuomo then sure relatively speaking he reacted better, but Newsom is clearly politicizing this by slowly ramping up the positives while warning everyone about the “surge” when it’s already happening. I don’t buy this.
result 25,192, pending 64,400 is complete BS. they have to release the number,
From how newsom respond, i’m expecting infected rate at 30-40%
None in South lake Tahoe. Tourists please stay home.
Clearly we should’ve shut down Pornhub a month ago.
And while spikes in number of confirmed cases can be in part attributed to better testing, the number of deaths also shows a disease that is spreading alarmingly fast.
Number of deaths is a better indicator of spread and crisis situation.
Even Moscow has shut down. The Mayor sent every resident an email. Shelter at home like in California. But only till April 5
Exponential growth is very counter intuitive. Our everyday world is mostly linear. The US could well hit 1M cases in just two weeks if the curve doesn’t get bent down fast enough.
Even more meaningful than death rate is hospitalization rate. That would get around the test data problem everyone is complaining about. There is no way to hide. But I don’t see any data on that. Ultimately that’s what we care about the most: whether our healthcare system can handle the load.
The scary thing is not the shortage of equipment but the attrition rate of doctors and nurses. They can only handle so much before they get sick and tired. 51 doctors died in Italy so far.
To be read with apolitical glasses.
I only care about the hospitals near me can handle if I am infected.
US probably trending over 350k by end of next week.
Any guess the real number in China must be.
You don’t believe? China didn’t include those asymptomatic cases and those not tested positive using test kits but have coronavirus-like symptoms using CT scan. So if you want to include those, probably 2-3 times of the confirmed cases.
Don’t forget that China implemented draconian measures, you can deduce that they are prepared to sacrifice the 11 million Wuhan residents if necessary. No nations dare to do this, ok, may be Russia and North Korea dare.
IMHO, doesn’t matter. The more relevant number is number of deaths.
I’ve read real number is around 10 or 20x the number quoted using different formulas
It doesn’t really matter how many China had. It’s not a competition and we won’t win any medal for having fewer cases than China. This is not the Olympics.
What should be obvious to everyone is that we have a really, REALLY big problem at our hands that is growing exponentially fast.
Is obvious to me that US will have higher number of cases and deaths because it refuses to isolate positives in government-controlled isolation facilities. China, Taiwan, S. Korea, Singapore, HK? and Israel did that.
US and the West didn’t live thru the SARS epidemic. Only now they are starting to debate whether people should wear masks.
