Dow Down 666 Points



There are always bears out there. Once in a while they are right. What does Shiller think? Pretty much a bear as usual

‘‘I have never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career. Now that’s only 66 years, so I shouldn’t make too much about it, but you’re right: I’ve seen two 50-percent declines, I’ve seen a 25-percent decline in one day and I’ve never seen anything like this before.’’

Jack Bogle


What’s in it for me? Why is it my obligation to explain to you? You want to know, you have to find out the hard way :crazy_face:


@hanera do you have tl;dr; of jobs numbers came out last week? are you going all cash?


What??? Do you not know @hanera? :slight_smile:


I’m a very lazy person, according to WB, is a very good attribute for long term investing. BAGB, take note, it means most of my investment I don’t even monitor them. So I didn’t read about the jobs numbers :slight_smile: I think you should ask marcus335 or Jil, they follow these type of development closely.

I was almost all cash, foolishly jump back in last week… although the signal for bottom is not there i.e. I’m also a very impatient person, impatient at a wrong time. BAGB, take note again, I’m referring to the 10x (aka mad money i.e. lose all is ok money) which obviously is an insignificant portion of the total stock portfolio. By now, you (BAGB) should know the answer to your questions.


@marcus335 @Jil
What’s your take?

From what i could gather, marcus335 is bullish long term, but not sure about short term (he thinks tariffs are good for negotiation etc).

Jil is very bearish, and all cash or near all cash.


I do not follow job numbers, but read those for overall economy situation, for high level understanding,…etc, but financial statements of companies for analysis.

Yes, other than real estate, all cash. I keep cash to get a home now, almost bidding every week one home, as I am pessimistic about next two years.


Best way to decipher the jobs number is to read the excellent calculated risk blog. Don’t read too much into one month’s number.


I agree on not reading too much into one number especially with all the winter storms. February was way above expectations, so they average out.

There’s some question if we’re running our of capable people for companies to hire. If that’s true, then economic growth could stall. There’s a lot of qualified women who don’t work for family reasons. I think we need a good solution to allow them to work while not taking away from their family. That’d really boost the economy.

A low number gives the fed less reason to raise interest rates.


A nice picture for BAGB, % are fictitious, asset allocation is constructed to withstand various kinds of disasters except a meteor hitting the Earth & similar,


I think we will have the Goldilocks environment longer than people think. Inflation is still weak. I actually don’t buy the “people not skilled enough” argument of unemployment. Firms are not raising wages enough. If Target pays 2x min wage I guarantee you they will not have any problem finding capable workers.

So you need to ask why aren’t firms raising wages? There are some signs they are starting to do that. So those people who left the employment pool will slowly get back in, to the extent they may even increase unemployment rate. And that in turn keeps wages down.

What I am saying is that there is huge slack in labor pool. I don’t get the worry on inflation.


Thanks for sharing! Do you count asset value or just equity in your RE percentage?


Equity, % in the pie chart is fictitious.


Oh right! Yes now I see it’s all 17%.


Why not use real numbers?


Tomato says privacy is important, so I should be sharing less. He taught me that “sharing is caring” is not a good thing.


Target would just hire people that have a job elsewhere. That doesn’t create net new jobs. We need more STEM graduates to fill openings. The people who can’t find a job at all need better skills to fill one of the 6M open jobs.


Where does that 6m number come from? And why do you think they all need STEM skills? How much STEM? College graduates?


The hyper competitive environment forces all companies to fight for the top talents. Someone has to train the lesser skilled, lesser experienced STEM guys. Long ago, government and big companies use to do that, they recruit lot more than they need, allow some of them to leave to join other companies after training. Now, these guys have drastically reduce the number, guess is cost :slight_smile: investors like us don’t pay for charitable work :slight_smile: I have no idea how to get out of this predicament. The availability of H1Bs exacerbated the situation i.e. they no longer need to train since the world is their recruitment targets.