Dow Down 666 Points



Im gonna hedge, if i have tomorrow. Some puts.


The eminent technical analyst Walter Deemer, who gained a wide following at Merrill Lynch, Putnam Investments and his own firm starting in the 1960s, said on Twitter, “A market that swings violently in both directions without making any net progress is usually a sign of a reversal rather than a consolidation.” By this, he says he means a potential reversal higher following this two-month tailspin.


Buy the dip then, at your own risk of course


manch is looking for diamond in the dust.


Is it even possible to find diamond in the dust? Is it diamond dust?


Market has sold the rumor of a strong earning news. Will it buy the news? :thinking:


Market mania has not really happened. I think the peak hasn’t reached yet.

We need to have a stock mania like Bitcoin mania we have seen. Housing mania in BA is even more than stock mania. Stock has been rising fast but the public didn’t show too much enthusiasm. What will entice the public to create an extreme stock mania?


No stock mania until Dow is at 50k. No housing mania until homes soar to $3M.


When folks like you start to buy? So far only laggard like elt1 bought which mean end is nigh. However, we need Johnny come lates :slight_smile: to create a Carnival.


When I can buy stocks and watch it double in 1 week, I may give it a try. Probably not spend too much time and too much money. KODK did not rise enough to make it interesting. People are too rational, we need a more crazy public to experience a stock mania. Millennials are not interested in stocks, they might have lost half of money in bitcoins already. Boomers are retiring and they are not interested in risks. Gen-Y is too small.


I had no idea I could sway the market. I sold a house in October and have been diversifying. With trust deeds and stocks. Most still in cash.

Buffet is 20% in cash a record 5 times his usual amount.
$116b out of near $500b
Sounds bearish


WB always has 20% - 30% cash reserve. When he gets a deal, he needs big money. He never lets it down below 20%.


According to the article he normally had $20b in cash. Now 6 times that.


Companies like Berkshire are often reluctant to take more than a 10% stake in a given stock as doing so comes with the requirement of increased disclosures and reporting to the SEC… Berkshire just increased its stake in Apple by 23%, but it could add to it as it only owns 3.3% of the iPhone maker.

Just wish some clowns sell short AAPLs to $160s, then WB would rush in to buy buy buy :slight_smile:

Hmm, What Is Apple Doing?

WB has mostly bought industrial firms like railways and power plants. His return on equity the last decade has been pretty bad, and he has most of his money tied up in there.

WB has missed the most important economic driver of the last 20 years and that’s tech. Don’t follow him too closely.


He told it clearly that he won’t invest in the field where he does not have knowledge.

It does not means following is wrong. He is sound proven investor


WB is senile and outdated. He’s only maintaining money he had made when he was young. He missed the Silicon Valley miracle altogether.


Who is the one giving bad advice?

Bill Gates or Warren Buffett?


Not sure if this economist article is behind paywall or not. It pierced a hole into the WB myth:

The industrial arm’s operating performance is bog standard and, once you include the goodwill, its ROE is a weak 6%, down from 9% in 2007 before Berkshire shifted course (these sums exclude the amortisation of intangible assets, which is in accordance with how Mr Buffett assesses profits).

The industrial businesses’ lacklustre record mean they account for about 60% of Berkshire’s sunk capital but have generated only about half of its look through profits, and 40% of its growth in book value over the past five years. For the five big industrial companies where figures are consistently available, total profits have risen by 4% a year since 2012, which is no better than a basket of similar peers. Profits at BNSF, for example, have risen only just above inflation and in line with other railways.


Think other way, even at this age 80+ he is making sound decision , made 60% gain in AAPL and holding enviable position.