Dow Down 666 Points

stocks

#1701

-526…

Aren’t you worried…yet?


#1702

Same problem I got with mathematicians on this forum. :crazy_face:


#1703

what’s happening?!


#1704

If you do not mistake me, now, You may know the impact of Margin and time decay function of options. Today, I cancelled my limit AAPL buy too as the current action re-iterate my guess of stocks drop.

Now, you see when economy is good and FED rate hikes are in place, stocks are volatile with flimsy reasons. IMO, plenty of hedge funds, institutions are moving money to bonds from stocks

Now, do you see why I sold all my portfolio keeping it as cash and awaiting the volatility settlement by Jun 2018? Being a short term traders, did not hold long, it is double negative to keep it in stocks.


#1705

GOOGL has been made scapegoat today !


#1706

Stock investing is a long term bet, not a short term sprint. I don’t think you have done anything productive still in helping your lost war in stocks. My screaming faces were just a joke against @manch’s screaming faces… :scream: :scream: :scream:


#1707

Equal opportunity screaming. :scream:


#1708

How about techies? Buy RE or give them to me?


#1709

Feed the baby who screams the loudest.

:scream: :scream: :scream:


#1710

Are you guys reading the fear & greed index?

You should. It tells you what is going on with investors.


#1711

According to the gauge, not enough fear… more decline.
The sentiment is things would go downhill from here. Now is the best we can be. So even if beats guidance and good forecast, still down… WS is looking at 6-9 months from now, not the next quarter.


#1712

Yes, that is what it is .

I agree stock investing is a long term for really long term holders like you, but for short terms, less than 2 years holding, better to be intelligent than regret later.

Productively gave a heads up to entire forum community to get rid of stocks. Some of them saved.


#1713

-Corporate profits are tracking at more than 18 percent higher, but stock market averages are little changed since the start of earnings season.

-Net profit margins are tracking at 11.1 percent, which would be the highest level since the third quarter of 2008.

-Companies that have beaten earnings have seen share price gains of just 0.1 percent in the two days after reporting, compared with an average 1.1 percent typical increase.


#1714

Yes, all you said are correct. In addition, tax reduction helps companies and people to save more. In spite of all these growth points, still stocks are down.

The key or reason said was: “We think the main drivers of this deterioration are lower quality earnings growth and tighter financial conditions, both of which are likely to be with us for the rest of the year

This means, big institutions are moving money from highly appreciated assets to bond or similar stable funds to bounce back at low bargain time. This will continue as long as FED is tightening the market. In between there may be UPs and DOWNs as this is very common fluctuations. This may take 6 months to 18 months.

Investors, like us, need to account these changes and secure their assets.


#1715

So, it’s not a flight to quality or to the next winners, but a flight to safety.

What’s your plan once you back out of the market? What’s your entry point and what will you be targeting?

Recalibrate and enter the same previous winners? If that is the case, I don’t think I’m clever enough to do that successfully. It would seem like it’s more prudent to ride it out.

(You may have already posted on this.)


#1716

Me know nothing. I just provide information. :crazy_face:


#1717

I read this yesterday (or one day before then)
Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-a-scary-time-to-be-trading-wall-streets-fear-index-1524398400

The Cboe Volatility Index tracks how much investors pay for options they often use as insurance against future stock-market declines. Known as the VIX, it typically rises as stocks fall or vice versa, reflecting shifting demand for options used to hedge investments. Playing the VIX has become a cottage industry in recent years, with billions of dollars flowing into investment products aimed at hedging or exploiting volatility trends.

This past Wednesday morning (Apr 18, 2018), futures contracts that track the VIX spiked despite little movement in U.S. stock futures. The 12% rise within 30 minutes set off alarm bells on trading floors—it was the biggest such move going back to 2010, according to data from Macro Risk Advisors, a derivatives brokerage.

Wednesday’s trading (Apr 18, 2018), which many traders said was triggered by large orders for S&P 500 put options expiring in one month, is now adding to concerns about the soundness of the entire ecosystem of VIX-linked trading.


#1718

I am expecting market will further go down as long as FED tightening is continued. The best entry point is when volatility over, after FED tightening is over. FED tightening will stop (6 months before/ahead) once they foresee jobless rate is going to go up.

I have set of stocks to focus, max 140 US stocks and few foreign stocks (like TEVA, BP, BABA etc), in future. It may slightly change, depending on how they survive down market. My take is to spread to 20 stocks (5% max) each, then hold long. But 401k goes to Mutual funds.


#1719

Got it. Well reasoned. I think you previously posted this, sorry for inviting you to do it again.


#1720

Despite the rollercoaster ride YTD Nasdaq is only down 1% and S&P down 3%. Surprised?