I am also on the look for property, but waiting for good home and location. Instead of keeping the money idle, planned to grow with ETFs & Stocks.
Totally agree! It has to be stocks/ETF in between buying the properties and right investments in both taxable and non-taxable retirement accounts. I hate paying to uncle sam!
Jil, do you still think the Fed will not raise rates? After the jobs report Friday it looks like the market disagrees with you.
I maintain my position FED will not raise rates before Feb 2017 !
If they raise, Obama and Bidden (vested interested parties of Dem) jointly put a goal towards Trump side !
FED mtg will happen and they leave the rate as usual and never give any clue when they raise the rates.
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I thought the market move was more about comments from Europe. I don’t think they’ll raise close to the election. Raising would basically be supporting Trump, because voters react to market sentiment.
Dow down 400 points are right opportunity to buy more stocks/ETFs whichever we analyze long term strong.
Even though I am 90% invested from my cash, I deplete all my cash resources to buy more stocks/ETFs.
I did the same during brexit, now I am doing again. Bought few ETFs/Stocks and buying more (if dips further) on Monday.
I am confident that FED will not raise rates and stock is over reacting on FED.
If I am wrong, you know how bad I will be !
Worst case, all my 2016 profits will be wiped off.
At the end, I will be empty handed with lessons learnt ! Let me try !
But some people hate indexing in life insurance.
FED may not have any room to raise rates without real growth, employment and inflation.
Even beyond Feb 2017, FED can not raise rates if economy is not growing.
The real disturbing fact is Corporate growth is shrinking last 4 quarters, even though employment is improved.
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Employment is the last thing to improve in a booming economy and the first to go in a down economy. …
In San Mateo county
In Tahoe area…
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That link is to an article in 2014
Corporate earnings have shrunk for six consecutive quarters, GDP has declined for five quarters, federal payroll withholding has followed in lockstep with GDP decreases. Withholding is a better indicator of job growth than job reports as it shows whether jobs are real jobs or minimum wage service jobs.
What has been keeping us afloat has been cheap money and an influx of international money due to the weakened condition of almost all worldwide economies, who are already in recession.
We are in the 87th month of a bull or expansion market, which is unusually long. History will show the recession started a while ago.
The scary issue is that it historically takes 5.5% of fed rate cuts to pull us out of a recession…but we sit at .5% fed rate, leaving us very few tools with which to move the economy.
A situation that may lead to toxic stagflation.
If the above statement, by someone else, is true, we will enter into recession automatically in year 2017 and FED will not have any leverage/chance to raise the rates.
What does stagflation do to real estate prices? In the seventies we had stagflation and booming real estate prices, until Volcker killed the party in 1981 with 18% rates…if Hillary wins I dont see much change…If Trump wins all bets are off…i am betting min wage increases are going to keep pushing up low end rents…Of course a major recession will wack everyone…
What stagflation? We hardly have any inflation at all. All these gold bugs calling for hyperinflation are clowns. Have been preaching the same BS for almost 10 years. People who listened to them have missed the biggest bull markets, in both RE and stocks, in a generation.
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Gold bugs miss that real estate does well in hyper inflation. Also, it can generate rental income and gold can’t.
Stagflation doesn’t scare me…I made good money in the seventies. …Maybe Jil can show how it might happen…What is scary is 1930s style deflation. .Protectionists like Trump could cause it…
So far, Oil suffered, Healthcare will get setback (Hillary comes). These two are enough and GDP growth will be very low, with UPs and DOWNs.
That is the good news for us (RE based)! I am confident about real estate as US economy is the only one making good progress (even if it is low growth) !
The whole nation can be in stagflation, SV would still be booming.
I think healthcare is all headline risk but no real risk. Obamacare was supposed to be horrible for them, and it’s been a boom. Remember, healthcare and big pharma ended up writing large portions of the bill. No way they’d do something that doesn’t benefit them. XBI has take a beating since Hillary’s first tweet about drug prices months ago. The pharma lobby is far too powerful to let anything meaningful pass.
Now who knows if Hillary’s health will hold up until the election. There’s been speculation about it, and she’s refused to address it. Now she’ll have to address it.
Many healthcare related, including local GILD, foreign MYL (or similar), ETF FHLC, VHT are not making great progress. Healthcare profit margin is coming down.
http://www.bloomberg.com/research/sectorandindustry/overview/sectorlanding.asp?region=US
I owned both FHLC & VHT, but took profit and sold it after seeing the low progress.