Hmm, What Is Apple Doing?

Manch,

Jake Swearingen graduated with a English major in 2005. Hop from one employer to another every 1-2 year. You trust his view?

He’s just a reporter, putting out a summary of data and other people’s views.

Besides, English majors tend to think more broadly than engineers, with less of an attitude. :smile:

Finally read the article. Highly likely sponsored by Google. Btw English major excels in using emotional words :crazy_face:

Broadly is a nice word for superficially? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

For manch’s sake, there is a limit to raising price is similar in logic to market penetration would reach saturation eventually. That is, the strategy is not more risky than decreasing price to capture increasing market share.

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Good , China is trying to use divide and conquer tactics now, the same tactics widely used by British!

Apple will come out or compromise with QCOM soon.

AAPL has touched $165 and came up !

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The specific iPhone models affected by the preliminary ruling in China are the iPhone 6S, iPhone 6S Plus, iPhone 7, iPhone 7 Plus, iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus and iPhone X.

Good that iPhone X is discontinued :slight_smile:

Qualcomm is a key technology vendor to China’s rising smart phone brands such as Xiaomi Corp, Oppo, Vivo and OnePlus, while Apple competes directly against Hauwei Technologies Co Ltd [HWT.UL], China’s lone homegrown maker of premium-priced smart phones.

Huawei needs to stop their design and use QCOM snapdragon in order for CFO to be released.

Why do they need to stop their design and depend on QCOM?

Nice analysis about AAPL (go though just 12 minutes), AAPL haters, feel free to avoid it.

are clueless as TSLA haters (I’m not one :slight_smile: ).

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Just FYI : Manch is fair in statement regarding AAPL, but does not like TSLA only :rofl:

TSLA problem is cash flow, it seems to have resolved it, manage it well.

Tesla’s biggest problem is valuation. Show me some legit justification for its market cap.

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Tesla can drop 100 points on one Musk comment.

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Prices are not controlled by company, it is the reflection of market players, users.

With exceptional results and future growth, aapl dropped 30%. Market may react on sensational news, but not controlled by company,

It is hard to go through valuation like aapl or FB.

Like TSLA, we cannot value NFLX or AMZN. You need to look 20 years from now to understand TSLA growth.

What TSLA technology is like google technology- an innovation!

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Someone wrote about Apple, copy and paste here.

Bull case for AAPL

AAPL is worth about $800 billion right now. We’ve all seen the news about peak iPhone, China worries, ect. All those are true. For me the bull case for AAPL comes down to one thing: BUYBACK.

With the new tax rules, Apple’s cash is no longer stuck overseas. They have full access to the $250 billion in the bank without paying additional taxes. The Apple CFO already said they were committed to going cash neutral. In other words have enough cash to cover long term debt. As of last quarter Apple had about $125 billion in net cash.

Last year AAPL generated $77 billion in cash flow from operations. They paid $14 billion in dividends. Bottom line is Apple is generating mountain loads of cash and they will continue to generate $60-$75 billion in free cash flow from operations for many years.

Think Long Term.

Lets say worse case the share price stays flat or even drops another 10-20% the next year. Could easily happen. But that actually helps not hurts the bull case of buybacks. It means Apple has buyback more shares at cheaper prices.

If Apple stays at about $800 billion market cap Apple should be able to buy a huge chunk of shares the next 10 years.

Apple has $150 billion in cash to buy shares right now.

Apple generated $77 billion in free cash flows from operations last year. Even if profits/sales stay flat or even drop 5%-10%, they would still be generating over $70 billion in cash a year. Lets be conservative and say Apple uses $30 billion on dividends and investments a year. That leaves over $40 billion a year for buyback.

10 years x $40 billion = $400 billion + $125 billion in current cash.

Apple could buy 66% of the outstanding shares if the stock price remained flat. And over 70% if the stock dropped. Apple could even get more aggressive and spend an additional $50 billion and just hold a larger debt/asset ratio. They could buy 75% of outstanding shares. And what if Apple actually grows revenue/profit?

If Apple buys 75% of its shares and the company’s market cap is flat at $800 billion, the price of the shares will go up 400%.

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Yes, during the next 10 years Apple can buy its shares at constant 2018 price but somehow share price will go up 400%?

What kind of fuzzy math is this? :exploding_head:

Simple Math.

2018 => Market Cap = 800 Billion, No of shares = 4.92 Billion shares, each share = $162

Apple buys 75% of shares = 3.69 Billion shares buy back, balance shares are 1.23

2018 => Market Cap = 800 Billion, No of shares 1.23 Billion shares

Your share worth 800 B/1.23 B = $650 = 4 x 162 (appx)

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And how much does it cost Apple to buy back 75% of its shares?

Not constant price. Constant market cap. Using accumulated retained earnings to buy back shares reduce market cap but should not if buy back money is from cash generated from current operations.

New market cap = $800B + cash generated from current operation
Author is saying use all the cash generated to fund dividend payout and buyback share.
So market cap should remain constant.

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