How the Coronavirus will affect Bay Area Housing Market

Supply and demand. Any housing, even so-called luxury ones, help push down housing costs for everybody. There is no mystery to that. Just build baby build.

If you are so convinced nobody will build in SF then there is no harm in getting rid of SFH zoning. It will just be the same status quo. No harm in trying then.

Build baby build where labor is cheap in Ohio Not California where $50/hr min wage for skilled tradesmen SF is not my problem I am so convinced that Sf build costs are so high we have raised $20m to buy foreclosure new buildings that are belly up.

Are you aware of how uniquely dysfunctional California is about housing? Red cities in red states just build housing.

Liberals are so messed up they protested land repurposing in Detroit. The guy eventually settled on planting trees since a forrest was the only thing liberals couldn’t shoot down.

That’s what. I suspect many are doing. TSLA is a prime example. TSLA had already moved the crown jewel team to Austin before announcing he is moving to Austin. And he didn’t say the main reason is he wants to be with the crown jewel team.

@manch

Don’t just read what are in the news. Also try to fish out info from your ex-colleagues and technie friends. Try to deduce what is the intent from the bits and pieces of info you gathered. Heard of operations security? To hide intent and direction? Companies practice that too. Let me repeat the phrase again,

坐拥云起处, 心容大江流

Watching the rising vapor into cloud, deduce the formation of rivers.

Are you sure?

Tesla’s career page for engineering roles has only 16 jobs in Austin:

https://www.tesla.com/careers/search/?country=US&department=4&location=Austin&region=5&state=TX

Palo Alto? I kept scrolling and it never seems to end:

https://www.tesla.com/careers/search/?country=US&department=4&location=Palo%20Alto&region=5&state=CA

I glance through your list, none is crown jewel.

Let me highlight the crown jewel for you:

https://www.tesla.com/careers/search/?query=autopilot

From what I gather, quite a lot of them have moved to Austin. Guess maintaining twin groups, you don’t know which one is the lead, now that Elon is in Austin, centre of gravity should shift to Austin from PA :wink:

https://lensa.com/embedded-software-engineer-autopilot-hardware-security-jobs/austin/jd/eadc075c61b7c4b2fc0b53364c98ec5d

There are a subset of very smart engineers who won’t move to Bay Area. I went to Purdue for engineering, and I will say that some the smartest people (usually non immigrants) in my class didn’t want to leave the midwest, though they could have easily made more in the Bay Area. a) being close to family and b) they don’t like CA culture. Austin HQ helps entice this personality, as I’ve seen from my personal aquaintances. DH, who is in an all remote startup based in the Midwest, sees this as well among people in that company; they won’t move to BA but they will go to Austin.

This doesn’t eliminate BA tech lead status in my mind, because the people described above, while very smart (based on people I went to school with) tend to be more risk averse (compared to moonshot types that are attracted to BA), and honestly, you need to be a bit crazy to first move here and then do a startup that swings for the fences. Once you are here, it is normalized in the culture to swing for the fences, hence why I agree BA won’t give up its tech lead status anytime soon.

I know so many spouses here supporting their families while their SO’s take no pay and spend all their hours working on a startup. I am from the Midwest, and that is really not “midwest” culture (again generalizing).

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Regarding Tesla, Rivian is “stealing” a lot of their talent. Rivian also based in Palo Alto. My guess is Elon moving some critical R&D to Austin to protect from that. Tesla is currently suing Rivian for poaching talent. High drama in the EV world.

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I said something similar although not in such a nice way. :rofl: I said people move to Austin to relax, not to slave for a startup with a high chance of failure. There is a selection effect going on. The A-types come to the Bay to swing for the fences. The work-life balancer move to Austin. Both got what they want for life.

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You miss the major point for RE investors like yourself. RE prices in BA ends up rising normally ie. 4-6% p.a. instead of double digits while RE prices in Austin shot by double digits. You gain nothing as a RE investor. As a stock investor, make difference where you’re :slight_smile:

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There is no doubt as Austin prices are absolute low and hiring takes place.

Even after seeing double digit growth, you did not Sell CU home to take advantage of such DD growth, right.

You are okay to hold CU home with single digit rise! There you stand!!

But remote RE is tough and has lot of issues.

I would rather vote for stocks than remote RE.

I am planning to go back one day, so can’t sell :slight_smile: Ditto for my ex-Primary in Singapore. Hopefully became Republicans run, hoping. Holding houses in three places, I can move from home to home :slight_smile: at will.

I have a very good property manager in Singapore. Austin PM also very good. CU PM so-so, tolerable, better than doing myself. I wanted to expand to Las Vegas, can’t find good PM, so drop the idea. Crappy PM has tons of issues as you cited. Better not to have any rentals.

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People from the Midwest might want re examine their culture. Why has it become such a depressing area where everyone with ambition and talent leaves? I know everyone is nice and all but the cities are rotting from the center. Poverty is rampant. And places like Mississippi are looking more attractive.
I doubt many Californians are itching to move to Cleveland St Louis Muncie Indianapolis or other famous MW tourist dream spots.
My friend from Michigan living in Reno just bought her retirement dream home in Mississippi.

You can buy a house in Muncie for less than $25k. Nobody wants to though.

What is the problem. Weather? Racial strife? Poverty?

come & Poverty
Median household income (in 2019 dollars), 2015-2019 $33,944
Per capita income in past 12 months (in 2019 dollars), 2015-2019 $20,386
Persons in poverty, percent 

31.0%|

Politicians, taxes, crime, drugs, culture? Center of Trump country for a reason.

Why is Nashville hot and Muncie not?
Both red states. Only 5 hrs apart. But Muncie is the past and Nashville is the future?

According to drug use, the Midwest is the most miserable place in the country.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2922-S-Elm-St-Muncie-IN-47302/94298942_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/muncie-in/houses/?searchQueryState={"pagination"%3A{}%2C"mapBounds"%3A{"west"%3A-85.533613%2C"east"%3A-85.274734%2C"south"%3A40.060206%2C"north"%3A40.384462}%2C"regionSelection"%3A[{"regionId"%3A12886%2C"regionType"%3A6}]%2C"filterState"%3A{"sort"%3A{"value"%3A"globalrelevanceex"}%2C"ah"%3A{"value"%3Atrue}%2C"con"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"mf"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"manu"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"land"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"tow"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"apa"%3A{"value"%3Afalse}%2C"price"%3A{"max"%3A100000}%2C"mp"%3A{"max"%3A327}}}

.

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I grew up Cleveland. It’s a nice place. Sure a bunch of smart people, but there is a brain drain out of there and the Midwest. No one is going to go for that weather vs better areas (say North Carolina) just so be able to afford a slightly bigger house (tech salaries will be well off in either place).

Austin is probably fine but if it gets a lot more expensive, it will start not offering much benefits vs. any other big city with decent weather (not like Texas weather is the best). Midwest could move basically anywhere south or west and improve COL.

The density of intelligent people in the Bay Area is astounding if it wasn’t so normalized. If I moved back to Cleveland, I would essentially be a standout star success, meanwhile in the Bay Area I’m nobody (I’m fine with that).

Bay Area will always be more expensive than anywhere outside of California because the weather is simply better. That is not going to change unless fire smoke changes quality of life enough.

But Austin is not as price inelastic as Bay Area. If it goes up enough, people will just start moving to, I dunno, Raleigh, Memphis, Denver, Salt Lake.

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Why?

Domestic migration lately is negative Bay Area. It’s only foreign immigration which is keeping the population up.

In fact in 2019 even net migration was negative.

ADDED LATER:
Well I guess the keyword is as that I noticed now and have bolded above in your quoted post. So, relatively yes you’re correct, since Austin is not build constrained and commute constrained yet unlike BA.

I posted sometime ago a study looking at the income profile of people who left California. They make less than the state average.

I don’t have data for educational profile.

Its not the rich driving the out migration. It’s the relatively poor.

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Cleveland may not be doing well but I heard Columbus is thriving. Columbus is a bit like Austin: state capital with a large flag ship research university. A winning combo.

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It makes more sense for people in the Midwest to move south than Californians moving to Texas. Anywhere is a step up from there. For most Californians Texas is a step down.
Frankly there is nowhere in the US I would rather live than California. Hawaii and Florida are nice to visit but Mexico offers more and is closer. I have traveled to 40 countries and 40 states. Once covid19 is done I want to see more of the US by car. Especially the West. A lot of places to see. I doubt the Midwest is on my itinerary

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