How the Coronavirus will affect Bay Area Housing Market

BART and Caltrain better shutdown?

if they shut down completely than those who need there service will need to drive car. that will raise there insurance, maintaince and gas prices. not to mention parking.
regardless of what happens. money is digitally flowing to stock market and businesess that keep city and counties afloat are evaporating. it matter of time before impact multiply.

Assuming Congress won’t help? Unlikely.

At least taxpayers won’t have to shell out money every month to keep BART and Caltrain running. And remote work will allow people to avoid using BART and CALTRAIN. I have a feeling the majority fo the workers using these services can work from home.
In last 50 years, we have discouraged the use of personal vehicles under the pretext of the environment. That should change.

Added Later:

Trump promised the new rule would reduce traffic in congestion-plagued Atlanta, arguing the changes would help with the expansion of the three lane I-75 highway near the facility where an express lane was recently added. His overtures in the state come as Democrats are increasingly eyeing Georgia as a potential battleground in November.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/507536-trump-finalizes-rollback-of-bedrock-environmental-law-nepa

you have to realize not everyone like to commute long distance or nature of work that can be done from home. alot of firms provide public transit passes to employee. Congress can help for year at maximum. there is no way they can sustain whole country public transit or any services for cities and counties. SF bayarea has become uncompetitive except for digital business that will be shrinking.

The choice is simple. Those who want to be using BART and CALTRAIN should be willing to pay the cost of providing these services. I do not like to pay for some one else’s commute. There is no point for me to subsidize a train services that does not even passes by my home. Sorry.

Every city, county and state faces budget shortfall. This is by no means unique to the Bay Area. What matters first and foremost is to get the virus under control. I know time is dark right now but there is light at the end fo the tunnel. July 2021 will look a lot different from July 2020. This is not the end of America.

Europe has been doing a lot of these big government initiatives. It’s nothing new. Before Wirecard collapsed, it’s one of the only two tech firms in Germany’s DAX 30. Now there is only one: SAP, and it’s more like the old guard Oracle that we make fun of here. France? Britain? Can you name the biggest tech firms in these countries?

America’s dynamism is still unmatched in the world. We screwed up big time in the last 3.5 years. A new golden age is waiting for us starting in 2021.

it is not just Bart and Caltrain. Soon the Bus services of whole bayarea will need help. it will create congestion on roads and parking problems infront of every business. as every employee car. No longer bike riding trains or buses.

Buy TSLA. Any other beneficiaries of AV?

BART and Caltrain are failed technology. Rail based commuter services used to be part of many big cities across the world at the turn of 19th century. A few survive today. Thanks to the fad of environment protection that we are still paying for Caltrain and BART. The environmentalists had last 50 years to prove they had brilliant ideas. They failed miserably. Only sea locked places like Hongkong or Singapore have rail-based services that are close to being profitable. Rest all are surviving on taxpayers handouts. Personal Transportation are way to go. I think, if anything, the experience of last 50 years have proven that.

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There still people using it. and that include Bus transportation along with large parking lots in stations that are now become transit center. Not every one can afford Tesla and its associated insurance/fees etc.
the point i am making if the public transportation belly up. Investors will lose confidence. It may have impact on tourism. there is simply no local revenues to extent that can support the public sector in SF bayarea.

Enjoy more congested freeways then

A friend of mine bought a big house in Dublin area and commutes to SF by BART every day. His wife wastes 20 min to drop him at BART station. Because there are not enough parking spots at Bart Station, he cannot drive to BART station. BART is also reducing number of parking spaces to get people out of cars ( to save environment and reduce carbon??) .

Then when train comes, it is always full during commute hours. Se my friend travels to San Francisco standing only in a very crowded train. During that 50 min ride, he samples different kind of body odor and new perfumes arriving in market.

This is tragedy of life for people who have to use BART and CALTRAIN during commute hours.
It is better to sit inside your car in a congested freeway, than to break your back standing in crowded train for hours and smells everyone else’s body odor.

Is his choice. Big SFH, bad commute OR cramped apartment, ok commute.

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This is so dramatic. I take BART everyday from Dublin/Pleasanton to Balboa Park station. It’s not that bad - spots run out at every station after a certain time (usually 730) but you can get a guaranteed parking pass for next day if you want to spend an extra $2 for the spot. I can’t handle driving in that traffic everyday - BART while annoying is still so much better mental health wise on your mind and body for everyday commuting.

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Bayarea is already uncompetitive and if public transport goes away. new investors will think twice about it.
Vanguard turn to Indian firm. and this trend will continue as Google already announced $10b investment in India. There is simply no new tech on horizon that will generate enough employees to populate rentals and housing demand.

@manch to take note :stuck_out_tongue: no unicorn startups in 7x7 in the immediate future and matured companies are in SV :man_dancing:

Is that a bet?

Is that a prediction? There won’t ever be new tech in the Bay Area? Just because the public transport needs some help in the Bay Area? Isn’t it a bit too dramatic?

On the other hand I thought India still doesn’t have reliable roads and power generation?

For the point 2), the local US companies, whoever gives the contract, look only the cost reduction and service. It is up to the contracting companies (like infosys) to look out for alternate power and internet source to provide US companies uninterrupted services. Reliable roads and power generation are not a major issue as such.

For the matter, not only bay area, entire US cities, say bay area, Austin…etc wherever H1B are involved, it will affect. Even with Biden (if he comes) he can not lift H1B restriction as local jobless reached extreme.

With WFH successfully run, US companies will go for overseas remote contracts instead of H1Bs.

Normally, H1Bs won’t buy the home within 5 years of job unless they made millions by stocks which is rare.

The WFH will severely affect H1Bs who are mainly low cost developers, designers…etc.

When recession ends, bay area will zoom again (based on year 2000 exodus and recovery).

This is predicting the future, which may go wrong 100% !