We’re in a recession?
Immigration is number one issue to keep SV the innovation king, and the long term trend is actually very good despite the clown currently in WH.
Americans, for the first time ever, want more immigrants rather than fewer.
Since everybody here is so down on America in general and Bay Area in particular, let me take the role of bay area’s Warren Buffett. We are heading into a golden decade, starting next year.
These Americans are the wise ones. More immigrants mean American lifestyle is in demand. Immigrants would spread good news about American lifestyle to their ex-hometown folks. Those hometown folks that can’t come to USA would buy American goods to enjoy American lifestyle in their own lands.
I am down on 7x7 
Optimistic on SV esp fortress 
It is not about stock market, but about GDP.
A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
Last qtr contracted, this qtr needs to see, then they will declare it.
When most of the manufacturing went to China, still US economy recovered. Even if many IT contracts goes to India & china or elsewhere, US recovery will always be there, and bay area will come back as usual.
BTW:Again, prediction can go wrong.
Even if there is magically some new tech reappear. it will no longer be physical product built in Bay area.
For Example
Pentagon hardly manufacturer any weopons in SF bayarea
All new semi conductor investments going to Wisconsin or Arizona.
Any new Asian immigration will not increase Senate votes of CA. So the laws cannot be made favorable. Fed can heavily taxed higher income at will.
Any virtual product can easily be replicated at far cheaper price in rest of the world.
5G tech is either in EU or Asia.
SF bayarea local economy so dysfuctional that WFH and long term decline in SF economy will collapse the bridge Tolls. it will make them much higher for the remaining drivers who want to cross it.
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Nah. He’s just the same as the other guy. Making a big deal out of small things, and conflating designs with manufacturing. 4G wasn’t invented here in the bay either. But who’s benefiting the most out of wireless broadband? How about the two companies that monopolize smartphone OSes? Or the new generation tech firms that make use of smartphones like Facebook and Uber?
The thing is, nobody can predict what the next breakthrough tech is gonna be. Currently we are still riding the smartphone wave and the AI wave is on the way up, dominated again by Bay Area tech cos. Focus on the goose (ie the innovation ecosystem) that lay golden eggs. Not the eggs themselves. Keep the goose happy and healthy and the eggs will keep coming.
Here’s another big trend that’s hugely important: demographics. To be innovative we need young people. I suspect that’s one of the main reasons why we don’t see much tech coming out of Europe. Old people tend to be more conservative and risk averse.
That’s also one big reason why immigration is so important to us. Like a vampire we need to suck out the young blood from other countries.
Note how screwed China is. We will leave them behind in the dust in the next decade, the Roaring 20s 2.0.
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. I am not sure how it source data.
Europe has much stronger health, safety and education system and this include all the way Eastern EU. They are better in building infrastructure.
Apple Chief designer came from England along with all the ARM.
Both Euro and British Pound gained 5% while there effective interest rates are far lower.
Try get Mortgage with 10% down and less than 2% interest rate in California.
In UK they have council tax but that council Tax is only 10% of the Property Tax of california and that 10% covers the Trash and recycling. The same ratio is for water bills. than Insurance rates.
Most European countries you pay next to nothing on registeration and renewal costs of Electric/Hybrid vehicles. and they have huge incentives nows. They are really serious about green deal.
The amount of car break ins in San Francisco. The scale of fire and Earthqualke insurance costs.
As is said these virtual product firms are simply not generating enough tax revenue.
Total dependence on Fed for both moneterry and fiscal policies to rescue SF bay area.
Top 10 companies in FTSE. Which one is tech?
Europe is just old and tired. You can get that by just looking at their median age. China has a much more vibrant tech scene. Again you can get that by just looking at the Chinese median age. But the sad news is that they are aging super fast while America is still spring chicken.
Once jobs gone to China or India or Mexico or Asian countries, it never comes back, that I understand.
Can you live without internet or cell phone for a month? Now no one likes such a condition, where as we lived without cell phone and internet few decades before !
The technological advancement takes place and that drives the bay area, not only in IT, but in every field. The basic computing power is increased every day and not diminished. Every small it, such as fan, switch, …big rocket level, everywhere you have AI/automation and chipset is involved.
As long as that growth is there, bay area will continue to progress the tech hub.
You admit, though grudgingly, that BART is annoying. I like the way you oversimplify and present BART and Caltrain as some kind fo dream come true. Maybe it is. I do not argue about people’s personal choices. You like BART, so be it. But, I want you and those who like to pay for their personal choices. If you want to protect the earth, reduce your carbon footprint, or your emission levels, you pay for it.
I have a friend who likes roller coasters ( a rail-based entertainment). He pays for it.
Anyway, if I have to choose between a 50 min ride in a car( even in heavy traffic) and standing for 50 min in a congested train. I will like to be in my car, listen to radio, and be better rested. Not to count hassle of commuting from my home to a Bart Station, and from the Bart Station at the destination to actual workplace.
Bay area public transportation, particularly BART and Caltrain, has very little role in creation of Silicon Valley.
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This is not new and is happening since 1990s. Even today, the number of IT people working in India (for USA projects) are higher than entire bay area IT people. The transformation started after internet came to USA every homes and subsequent recessions.
There was a mass exodus, appx half million left, happened during 2000 dot.com boom, and 2008-2011 another big mass lay off resulted reduction. With all these population increased and will keep on increasing.
All those reductions are result of recession and every time rent are reduced 10%-20% easily like it is happening now.
But, USA and Bay area will recover after such set back. It is very common.
Pre-dot.com time, SFH was selling at 400k-500k level in cupertino, Condos were around 250k-300k. I was paying $800 rent for two bedroom apartment in Mountain view.
Now, you compare the prices or even compare the prices in few years from now when we are in deep recession.
I know the history of bayarea as i have been around here for over two decades. the point i am making is there is simply not enough tax revenue from the business created here to sustain services. I would not be surprized that water bills sky rocket starting from next year as expensive projects are initiated. We simply dont have skills to make water supply and water treatments plant cheaper. let alone any complex infrastructure project.
The price of house is more function of Interest rate. If interest rate goes to 7% the same as in early 2000. The price house will substantially goes down. but than property tax and insurance will also go down. so it is not desirable as there is no other business left to collect tax.
That’s actually never been true. There’s never been a year where rates went up and prices went down. Rate increases lag inflation. Inflation means wages and home prices went up. Home prices fall when there’s a recession and rates decline in a recession.
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Covid19 gives the result as bringing in lots of young immigrants. Kills off old people thus bringing down the median age of the population.
That may be the unintended (good) consequence. 
Services have been sustained here for decades. If they need more money to run we will tax more. What’s the big deal?
Conditioning thinking. Talking like a horse now 
So cheap. By the time I’m here, SFH costs $800k-$900k.
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