Indices & ETFs

This is true. I liquidated a lot on Friday. I’ll sit and wait for more pain via yield volatility. It’s clearly going to 2% but hopefully, it’s a sudden move so the index can just get over with it.

Turns out Trump was right. Biden just insulted and challenged Both Russia and China with no strategic plan. Just woke PC crap… Pathetic… And both shot him down. Liberalism is a disease not a governing strategy.

Shut down Keystone and drilling on federal land with no strategic plan for replacing the resource.
Open the border with no strategic plan for handling the migrant surge.
Does this guy have a strategic plan for anything? Or is he even running anything?

His strategy to kiss the asses of the politically correct, BLM, the radical left, the woke crowd and try to hold on till Kamala takes over, or pushes him down the stairs. Look like he might just do a header down the stairs and do the job for her. My dad used to fall frequently at his age. Turns out they were mini strokes. We put him in a rest home at 78, Biden’s age.

These are visible trends. you have to look for the invisible stuff.
Trump demanded $5B from South korea for burden sharing. while this issue is resolved at $1b now.
we cannot discipline S Korea as they are key component supplier of deadbeat firms like Apple/Nvidia etc even though they have integrated missile system that is developed with Russian firms that is violation of CAASTA sanction from 2017.
any one seriously think Europe will stand with US when US itself cannot take practical stand. its all about hype of Apple/Tesla and China.

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3060874

Folks, happy to be back to the forum after a short break.

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Happy to see you around :slight_smile:

Announce in this thread? Want to get back into the market? Please don’t get into the market now, too treacherous.

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DJI chart. A century corrective wave is about to start. None of us including Charlie Munger and WB, have experience such as a corrective wave. Hold cash? Hold bitcoin? Ride through the ordeal? How to deal with a century corrective wave?

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so are you going to sell and go to all cash?

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Not something new. Have been saying it for many months or is it weeks. That QQQ would have a century corrective wave coming… Next week will be key to whether corrective wave has started or one more up wave… My bet has always been one more up wave… no change in expectations unless… QQQ drops below 308 next week… My thinking has always been move to cash when the last up wave is about to be completed… for trading accounts only… not sure about buy n hold accounts… This is a century corrective wave, so buy n hold stocks would also be decimated and won’t be over during my lifetime… I am indecisive about the buy n hold accounts… meanwhile just freeze like a deer in a car light. The big issue is after selling where to park the cash?

One thing is very sure, even during the century corrective wave, some stocks would still appreciate. What are those? AAPL? Hopefully. The true rock solid innovative companies should continue to strive. Urgently need to know which companies are these :slight_smile: Index funds and index ETFs are the wrong place to be. Already sold all VOOs in buy n hold accounts, holding TQQQs in trading accounts and betting for one last up wave… I am playing a high risk game holding TQQQs.

About to start tomorrow is very different thing from starting in 10 years. First case sell everything you have. Latter case buy like there’s no tomorrow and ride the wave up.

We are still in a secular bull market that started in 2013. Only half way thru. Has 10 more years to go.

Is a century corrective wave, ofc margin of error could be years :slight_smile: 2mrw or 10 years later, when it starts, what is the best course of action? Not an academic question, better to think about it now then to start thinking when it hits. So what would you do?

Sell everything you have? Referring to sell RE and stocks? Be clear. What are you going to do with the cash? Park as cold hard cash or treasuries or bitcoin or … ?

Ask me again in 2025 or so. Still have many years to think about it.

A picture is worth a thousand words :money_mouth_face: Below is the updated TQQQ 30 days hourly chart with annotations and a possible inverse H&S (by now, guess you know is a common pattern and its relationship with EW).

No need to think anymore :wink:

Demographics argues for that corrective wave. Population growth goes negative as early as 2050 by some projections. Japan everywhere.
Can’t see cash being a safe haven. Governments will print it into oblivion in a desperate bid to try and reflate. Stocks and real estate may be safer. The game will be to try and lose less than everyone else, not make more. Rural property with good water might be wise as a way to ride through all the social unrest. It may deflate but it’s utility remains the same.

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Century corrective wave? It will last many decades. It will be a series of bull and bear markets using traditional definition but each peak of bull market would be lower than previous ones. Trading TQQQ is ok, buy n hold TQQQ is suicidal.

Good. Now we have fundamentals supporting the EW. Thanks :slight_smile:

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Good idea. Rural property with good water… may have to consider this but I am a city boy who know nothing about rural and countryside… I am afraid of those areas. I see you know what I am worried about… social unrest… so I need to stay near my own kind :slight_smile: This is the main reason why I am using a PM :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

Bear in mind that it is the indices that are in century corrective wave, some stocks won’t be in corrective waves. My current thinking is that those growth stocks that cater to the increasingly influential millennials will fly high. I notice Cathie’s staff are mostly millennials so I presume their choices are most likely the right ones that would ride high in the next few decades, Cathie says is 5+ years. So if market indiscriminately sell off those stocks, I would buy into them… so far TDOC, ZM, U, SQ, PYPL, BILL, SHOP.

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Wondering out aloud…whatever stimulus checks end up in stock market, does that indicate ‘those’ stimulus checks were sent to the wrong folks? Meaning, those folks didn’t really need the money to meet any basic needs, hence shouldn’t really have qualified for the money in the first place?

That’s my line of thinking in any case.