DTK is no longer red
I took a gamble and long some TQQQs
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Shows very little understanding of religion.
One truth that everyone â theist, atheist, capitalist, communists, and all kind of justice activists (like climate justice, gender justice, digital justice and XXXX justice) scientists, doctors, engineer, traders, thieves, everyone â agrees to is that everyone dies.
Religions explain what happens after one dies, and what is best way to live a disciplined life to avoid facing bad after life (call this process a search of salvation).
What you seem to be confusing the word religion with is astrology. In Hindu religion, for example, the astrology was advanced as a way to find out which phase of the cosmic journey the soul is in (the soul goes through several cycles of birth and death before it is liberated and unites with the super soul). Although astrology was and still is part of life in India where they use it to find a good moment to do a thing, but predicting future was not one of them.
How over modern statistics ( and machine learning) is developed to run regressions, and predict a value (or class) of a variable based on its past values.
Prediction is pretty much part of the science although some pseudo science (like climate science) is used to arrive at absurd conclusions.
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Without Algorithm itself, you are doing great ! Kudos to you !!
Based on market actions/reactions from July 2nd onwards, I am convinced about market correction within 60-75 days, but I do not know how much it can correct. All I know is some kind of turning points.
What you mean by Indian astrology doesnât predict future? Almost every arranged marriage go through astrology to predict how well the couples will live in future. Astrologers there even predict whether one would have accidents in the next 12 months or become rich in 2 yrs etc.
Example: Back in the 70âs I worked with a woman who had a crack in her windshield. Since it wasnât in her field of view she never got it fixed even though it grew slowly with time. She claimed she could predict the direction of the stock market based upon whether the crack was propogating toward the top or bottom of the windshield as she had seen a correlation in the past. This was one reason she never got a new windshield.
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Related the unrelated. There is no cause and effect relationship. How does it become recognition of pattern?
These beliefs donât come out of nowhere. A typical pathway is that people observe some spurious correlations and mistake them as related. For example, that woman may have observed her windshield cracksâ direction lined up perfectly with stock market movement in the last few days or so. And so she believes they are related and use it to predict the future.
There is also no causal relationship between Golden ratios and stock market. That didnât stop EWT believers from reading something into nothing.
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Please read up on EWT first. The basis is explained very clearly in some of the previous links I posted for your perusal. Is not a cause and effect relationship as what you perceived. Donât comment on things you donât know is my advice.
Birth Charts of bride and groom are used in finding compatible matches. Is it the same as making predictions about future events (like what will happen 3 years from now?) I will agree that there are people who claim to predict the future. How are they different from people who tell the temperature of the earth will rise by 0.0000001 C in the next 200 years?
Indian astrology is (or was) not about predicting the future but taking action based on the planetary positions of the person at the time of birth to mitigate some bad influence. People rarely disagree on positions of planets. What people disagree and are often wrong about is what that planetary position means. For example, if one has Saturn in a bad position (it is exact science) , they will suggest a remedy to minimize that influence (people can disagree on this part).
She intuited a pattern where there was none. People do that.
I see pattern here means causation. Hence the statement can be rephrased as,
Humans are also hard-wired to see causation where none exist.
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Essentially boils down to the evil twins:
risk aversion
loss aversion
You will be surprised how the two can force one to act differently on same information. For example, if market crashes 20% tomorrow. Different people will react differently due to the above two ( to avoid further loss or risk of further loss)âŚ
Today, if market ends negative today, this means recession is already set to roll and market can not hold any more. With very low volatility (rare to gain by puts/calls), market will set to go down naturally as no big one have confidence !
This is typical 2000 or 2008 scenario. Total Market, including real estate, will be an issue going forward. Today is the day of confirmation from the market (if ends negative).
Selling pressure will be high hereafterâŚLooks like SPX 4384.75 is the peak of 2021 (rare chances to go up above).
BTW: Not an investment nor financial neither stock advice.
Reverse Repo
Many people here are not even up to date on stocks/financial. Just posting how grave situation we face with huge reverse repo increase appx 750+ Billions.
Pre-2008, money market funds invested in CDs or cash deposits of financial institutions. Laymen brothers filed bankruptcy during 2008, then many big banks (such as BAC, JPM) about to bankrupt, but finally saved by USG.
During that period, Money market funds became volatile (dropped) instead of holding $1. This created big issues resulting multi-millions losses.
In order to provide constant cash value $1, FED created reverse repo facility where institutions can deposit cash and get Treasuries over night holding so that $1 value is maintained.
Everything I said is in wiki (you can check).
Pre Apr 16, 2021 reverse repo was almost zero (< 20 Billions), but they gradually increased to $750+ nowâŚmeans âPeople sold stocks and keeping it in money market fundsâ which is $750+ billions over night holding, actually cumulative holdings may be appx 1.25 Trillion.
This shows how people lost confidence in the market, keeping huge cash on sidelinesâŚ
This is historic High as of date (991B/Jun 30, 2021)
So, what should we do. Sell all our stocks and real estate and hold everything in cash?
Fed has already killed cash. So if market tanks and more money is printed, what ever value remaining in dollars will be crushed further. If one can time the market well, sell at top and convert into cash, and then buy again before next wave of printing should cash looses more value. Politics does not matter, Right?
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Unfortunately,no suggestions on such things, except scaring the viewers !
Btw: This is Not stock or financial advice/suggestions!!
Congress has to approve for money printing by FED which both Obama team and Trump team supported.
See how Warren grilling FED, Will they do now?
Does not Warren belong to the MMT gang? I think entire banking model is broken. We have discussed this several times. Fractional Banking, and Money printing, and deficit spending. All these have effect of moving savings from middle class (and other savers) to others.
Depends on what kind of stocks and RE 
I did nothing. My stock and RE portfolio recover very fast. 2008 financial crisis is nothing burger to me.
Yes, politics does not matter because the leaders of both mainstream political parties pursue the same kind of fiscal and monetary policies.
Obama was happy to let the Fed keep interest rates low and print money aka QE throughout his 8 years. Trump was literally begging and bullying his own Fed Chair appointee to reduce interest rates to 0 well before the pandemic hit, and was only happy with Jay Powell when he started printing money again in 2020. And Biden seems quite content to let the show continue.
I donât see much difference between the Republicans and Democrats. They are all equally corrupt and happy to print money, benefit the rich, and enjoy themselves
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