Indices & ETFs

I don’t remember you came out ahead of time and warned people about the impending doom. There’s a reason. Everyone was feeling great at that time, including you. That’s usually when significant downturn can happen. Not when everybody is out waiting for a correction.

You mean you expect me to be like you don’t learn? What is your definition of doom? Correction is normal and nothing to be afraid of, AFAIK experienced investors welcome correction. They feel that got corrections now and then, bull market can last longer.

I am feeling great now :thinking:

Anyhoo, Feb 2020 was a bear market if I recalled correctly, not a correction.

Please take care in your choice of words.

My point is that, you didn’t feel anything was wrong before the 2020 bear market. Why not?

Compare sentiment of Jan 2020 with today’s.

Actually I did. It was parabolic. You can read past posts to verify.

Do you expect me to always express my feelings openly?

F&G chart:

Jan 2020 was at Extreme Greed close to 100. Right now we are at 33, Fear.

Rona cases flat to falling. So if anything Covid related is affecting the market it’s the crazy mandates out of Washington and not the virus itself.
I’d avoid airline stocks like the plague. Air travel has been getting worse and worse for years; it’s like a root canal or colonoscopy at this point - you only do it because you feel you have to. Meanwhile cars get quieter, smoother, more spacious and with features like adaptive cruise and lane assist practically drive themselves. For millions of Americans the additional requirement to get injected with synthetic mRNA before you can fly will be the last straw. They’ll just cease air travel altogether.

@manch views correction and bear market as similar. SMH

Chart looks scary but DTK is blue! Huge rally on Monday?

DTK didn’t turn red yet SPX has dropped nearly 100 points. Broken? What happen to his usual cockiness?

This is a scary chart. Inflation rising like the head of rattlesnake. Meanwhile as the disaster gets out of control the Fed is fiddling away


Never buy an airline stock on a Monday or any other day.

If inflation is rising by 5% or more, I hope I get a 5% raise next year - that sure would be sweet

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Mirrors my observations.
You could so easily spend 20$ on a meal per person without blinking anywhere in the suburbs, forget SF.
Once inflation goes up, it rarely ever comes down.

We know inflation is baked in when people like Manch think that a 50% increase in lumber prices is no big deal. Same with used car prices. My 2006 4Runner was worth $6k in 2019. Now it’s worth $15k.
Even in the 1970s inflation bomb used cars didn’t appreciate. This is unprecedented.

I doubt wages are going up that fast. I thought about buying physical gold as a hedge but the commission is 5% to buy and then sell. This of course is fueling the crypto craze.

Inflation is about the rate of price increase. Unless you think price will keep galloping up at the current pace, inflation rate will come down.

That’s not saying price level will come back to pre-Covid level. Wages won’t go back to below $15. Amazon is offering $18 an hour and free college degree. But to say inflation will keep its current pace will Amazon offer $22 an hour next year? $26 in 2023 and $30 in 2024? Unlikely.

I still think long term we will settle down between 2 and 3%. Higher than the sub-2 before Covid but still very mild by historic standard.

It took 10 years of stagflation to kill off the 70s inflation and Volcker tanking economy after mortgages hit 18% in 1981. Gold went from $250-$900. It really did nit end until the mid 80s. Causes were the Vietnam War( massive deficits)oil embargo boomers forming households woman entering the work force en mass, shortages of just about everything. Not to mention the 1968-9 flu pandemic. The 70s sucked. Not looking forward to a repeat. The deficit spending today is much greater than during the Vietnam War. Trillions more.

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Stop yelling at the sky and buy yourself some bitcoins then.

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I keep buying RE. It is all I know. Best inflation hedge ever. https://survivingtomorrow.org/this-real-estate-bubble-wont-pop-2f52f23709f8

That is my fear. The Fed is cooking the inflation books and will report some low number to justify keeping low interest rates and continue money printing. Companies will use the official Fed numbers to justify giving the usual 2-3% annual raises, while prices are going up much faster. We are screwed :face_with_symbols_over_mouth::cold_sweat: