@hanera Just FYI, you are not believing Jim Simon can mathematically measure stocks. Now, he is retired but his son is active (algorithmic work) and also having a hedge fund in San Francisco for about 14B
Here is the proof, what he did. On 2/11/2022 and 5/12/2022 Sec filing, he holds appx15% & 27% on SPY put (almost 1.7B), but later at 08/12/2022, all spy puts are gone.
They are not fraud, but use an algorithm called Modified Markov Chains => simply state : Future of a stock value can be expressed as a function of past performance !
It may be wrong too ! He may be wrong if yield curve inversion happens. Otherwise, he may be right.
This whole month Yield curve is floating between 0.04% to 0.29%. If FED adds anything from here, potential chance that we go into deep recession after 3-6 months.
Lot of people make a guess after seeing some confirmation (after the fact).
With trillion dollar environment, market is going in a wave like pacific ocean and predicting the top or bottom is not all easy work.
Since market is going on efficient mode with full strength, each one is able to get some clue in between.
With drops like this today, market clearly turned down from temporary peak (DCB). I was skeptical when I posted this excel, but now it is being confirmed clear DCB.
Since beginning of this bull, I was also skeptical that market is turning upside without proper fundamental changes. Now, it is a long drawn process for next 6-9 months.
What we will see is B-C drop (guess work - no expert EW).
Sometime before I posted BUY & HOLD of leverage ETFs like TQQQ will not work and it is only for trading purpose. Here is someone proved it again with some mathematical formula and the paper reference (hard to understand) is given.
Every broad market index investors knew. Is well-documented. See chart below.
Most of us think we are very smart, much smarter than average Joe, so we stock pick. Those lucky ones (random) e.g. me can do humble brag and tell how they use analysis (fundamentals, identifying moats, EWT, cycles, time in market is better than timing the market, algorithms, AI, whatever reasons) to achieve the result. Some even try to sell stock advice, publish books and run hedge funds. In truth, pure luck, a random event. Survival bias talking.
Ofc, not all think they are smarter than the market. Read a few articles, many wealthy people knew they are not. They put their money in safe assets and a few % in stock picking/ trading just for talking points during social parties and casual talks.
Looks like stocks are headed back to the June lows. Like Tyson said everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. What stocks will be best after that?
Thereās always the 1% out there. You might have only a 1% shot of becoming the 1%, but if you are not amongst them somebody else is. Index investing isnāt going to get you there, that lām sure of.
Always thinking of top 1% With QE, many have catapulted to top 1%. Top 1% household (not per person) = $11.1M. Index investing to top 1%, hard for my generation, but easily a millionaire by age of 65. However, current crop of SWEs should be able to hit top 1% investing in S&P by age of 65.
Take note, DCA purchasing + DRIPping S&P yield 11% CAGR. Not many stocks are able to achieve that for 40 years (normal duration of working life) i.e. 65x over 40 years.
You life is 90% over by the time you reach 65. What good is all that money for? Leave them to your children so that they get to spend lavishly to enjoy life while you penny-pinched your way to 1%? I donāt think so
Is continuation of you So still not late from a spiritual PoV
Aināt all Chinese parents did that?
Anyhoo, I think current crop of SWEs should be able to hit it before 50. Nowadays, tons of RSUs and ESPPs. Ok, not S&P But their 401k should be in S&P.
can do humble brag and tell how they use analysis (fundamentals, identifying moats, EWT, cycles, time in market is better than timing the market, algorithms, AI, whatever reasons) to achieve the result. Some even try to sell stock advice, publish books and run hedge funds. In truth, pure luck, a random event. Survival bias talking.