If not and If market drops like 2.5% from here, without going up like DCB, max down 3600 ,it will go for big squeeze release for at least a day. Having said this, my plan is to add 30% if dips Monday and another 40% on Tuesday (if dips). Potential chances that market may recover 3-5 days minimum if it plans to go DCB.
Then, it can be DCB or bull run. If DCB, the max down possible is 3450 (GSPC).
With current level there can be two bottoms either 3600 (possible, but not mandatory) or 3450(rare).
On any case, GSPC May not go down below 3450 in next two weeks.
Btw: This is some recent mathematical permutations and combinations, everything can go wrong. I am testing my calculations and it is not reliable.
Everybody here know. But Tom is right. I talked to a few ex-colleges, shockingly most of them don’t know what is S&P 500 index, DCA approach and DRIP. They are all CS majors.
Seeing news “Why today market has gone up or down?” is meaningless as it is mostly written by automatic robot programming.
They have set of sensational news blocks and depending on what market is doing, they attach the news.
Most of the retailers are completely fooled by such news/media.
This scenario is back? Century degree bear market? Someone brought this up in fintwit. Remind me of my secular bear thought last year but foolishly dumped it when S&P refuses to crack for many months. If global depression, this would come true… praying.
I presume you share Mauro’s bullish count. One more bounce and another leg down, is over. If his chart is to scale, a Santa Claus rally would mark the start of a new multi-year bull market.
More like 2000. Cloud stocks bust. Overspeculating in cloud computing and SAAS businesses. Even the big cloud computing guys like MSFT GOOG AMZN are dying.
First phase, market is shedding all stocks with the expectation of demand reduction or impact of rake hikes. This is what we are going through.
Next phase is reality check. How companies are fared with demand reduction environment. This we have not come to see yet. This phase is slow growth.
Because demand for growth will be shrinking when small and mid size companies file bankruptcy and mass lay off employees! However, these big companies manage to recover , question is Facebook.
Crypto goes down to bottom. WFH becomes part HR legal norm ( like cloud, WFH is cloud of remote workers). Remote area real estate grows nicely after a dip.
Real estate is just 1-3 month lagging stocks. The real estate dip happens when small and mid size companies file bankruptcy and mass lay off employees.
Big companies will stop projects, shed employees of higher wages as they will have chances to hire low cost labor later.
When stocks are recovering, companies will hire remote workers they save money on office space, overhead etc, but remote workers will be cheap labor in sync with at that time hiring rates.
When WFH becomes norm of HR, companies hire them first for cheap labor cost. Remote areas real estate will pick up faster than other areas.
S&P 500
Where are we now? Bear market erased in just 4 months! So if we’re less than 20% from the bottom, no need to be cheeky. Buy! Market rockets almost vertically once it has bottomed.
There is a chance that market ignores Fed hawkish stance. That is, Fed can talk hawkish and continue rate hike, market
