Indices & ETFs

OMG, i just update for discussion and not stock or financial advice !

Your Apple dividend may help

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QQQ declining now. Believe it would drop to around ~$300 again, expect not lower than $299. Meanwhile, sit and wait for it to come to papa. Still don’t believe would decline below $296 :slight_smile:

I think QQQ is in a wave two of fairly low degree. The push would up, powerful wave three of three.

OMG, powerful wave three of three started! Should hit $310 on Monday or Tuesday.

May be, let us wait and see…

I will not update this thread like running commentary (no time to spend) and also would not like to mislead others.

I love options but it is risky for sure…some RHers made a killing this year. I wish I was more bold as I’m more methodical and less risky with it but I have been known to throw in 50k in uncovered calls occasionally. :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

I think QQQ below 300 is a BTFD and accumulate IMO.

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pls don’t say that. I am fan of you and @hanera posts in stocks. Good learning curve for me :slight_smile:

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what’s your current play?

I’m almost all out of long equity positions except a few (energy, banks, transporation, etc) which I keep adding when it dips (rule is to increase position on every ~1% dips for those). Otherwise, I just have some dec calls in qqq and spy, but bigger positions also in longer dated calls in aapl, amzn, baba, pfe, mrna, qqq, spy, etc as well. I also wrote a bunch of puts when it dipped across stocks + etfs as well recently. Still have a lot of cash left so I wanted a bigger dip. We many not get it from the looks of it but we’ll see next week!

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How to dip when you, @Jil, @manch and me have cash left? Market can only fall when we all run out of cash.

I have to assume is your trading portfolio. I have way more stocks in my buy n hold portfolio - hardly look at them - neither add or sell - just hold and left them there. Quite often I forgot what I owned :wink:

Trading portfolio? I have learned to focus on a few instruments, mainly MU, TQQQ, and QQQ. I find that having positions in many instruments and stocks confuse me, tend to lose money. With these few instruments, I am doing quite ok :money_mouth_face:

Hah, yes, it’s my primary trading account. My long term one, I don’t change it often. I have a secondary trading account in RH which has been performing very well…although with a huge volatility. :flushed:

We are just tiny retailer…

Why do you keep cash when expect Monday or Tuesday to go $310?

Are you sure?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo9HsWNXMAAFv01.png

https://twitter.com/barnejek/status/1337366443634151425?s=20

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You want me to go all in? In trading, risk management means sizing :slight_smile: and reserve :slight_smile: Do not over-expose. Also remember position should answer both preferred and alternative counts :wink: Minimize the probability of losses not maximize profits :slight_smile: Make less money is preferred over incurring huge losses. Just spouting some of my trading philosophy.

The push would up, powerful wave three of three.
OMG, powerful wave three of three started!
Should hit $310 on Monday or Tuesday.

Your prediction is firm on going up on Monday and Tuesday 3.33% (310/300), if you take buy a call you will get 25% to 100% depending on the OTM call, if you take TQQQ, you will get 10% in a day profit.

Are you commenting like Cramer here?

Monday morning I am always afk for a few hrs :hugs: I am still holding 300 TQQQs. Btw nothing is firm :disguised_face:

Kind of. Watch too much JC videos. Unconsciously copy him :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

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IMO, TQQQ is 3x short term holding for swing trading and you are holding like “True investing”, that work against you during falling time.

For buy/hold you need QQQ or similar

For swing trade (buy low, sell high), TQQQ.

The reason is when index QQQ down 1%, TQQQ will be down 3%.

For more clarity (to show the effect of 3x issue) - I hope you are aware of such effect. If the market drops by 33% your $10000 becomes $100 and you need incredible appreciation to get back to your original $10000 (I vaguely remember it is 3333% increase required)

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:+1:

Miracle does happen. Look at SOXL.

I have been talking about the alternative count i.e. potential Primary degree Flat where QQQ would likely decline to ~$250. Thought a picture or two would illuminate what I mean. Found an expanded flat at a higher degree (Cycle degree) in CRM.

Expanded Flat of Cycle Degree - CRM


.
Potential Expanded Flat of Primary Degree - QQQ

IMO, based on EWT, current drop is limited between 8% and 14% range from peak $308.29, it is unlikely to go down further. The drop may continue and settle low some time between Dec 24th and Jan 10th.

Standard Caveat: This is again prediction based on EWT and everything can go wrong as no one knows the future perfectly.

Reference start price is? In EWT, need to know because corrective wave refers to retracing of a previous wave. So 8-14% retracement of which wave?

You said wave 4 (I assume same as I am not so clear about wave), but EWT follows Fibonacci number which has 9.02 and 14.49%. To be safer, I approximate it to 8% and 14% as this wave should not be so strong except year-end profit taking.