Indices & ETFs

Wave (iv) started 3 days ago, and wave (ii) lasted 6 days. So wave (iv) might last 6 days too :grinning:

No Santa Claus rally?

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I doubt Santa Claus rally!

IMO, market has turned to downward trend with this push down today, very likely hit down in 15-18 days and then turn up as usual.

This is from my algorithm which says peak sell reached. With heavy push down, the down trend is confirmed.

If I guess further, tomorrow only day we see positive day and Friday+Monday a push down day to reach max bottom and then we are likely done. All are my inferences and nothing written in concrete.

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Just to be clearer… an annotated chart with EW guidelines on behavior of wave (4). Forget to add, duration of wave (4) is usually between 0.618 to 1.618 of duration of wave (2) i.e. between 1.8 days :slight_smile: to 4.8 days since duration of wave (2) is approxly 3 days.

From the chart, we see that QQQ is already declined inside the range of wave (iv), so is more or less completed in term of price but may not be in term of day - remember, wave four (generic label) is fairly complex in pattern.

Since wave (4) can’t go below wave (1), if it goes below, we know that the preferred count is invalidated and alternative count comes into play. Sidenote: should have sold TQQQ and go into SQQQ, can cater to both preferred and alternative count - I have much to learn in (day and swing) trading :woozy_face: Still locked in buy n hold & position trading mindset - hold more than 1 year for long term capital gain so short-term volatility is irrelevant.

IMO, The heavy drop stops by Monday close and then slowly go down until Dec 24-31 and real recovery may be thereafter.

BTW: Everything guess work, not a stock advice.

You are describing the alternative count :pensive:

Let’s whether it did go below wave (1) ~$295.

The slide wont recover until Dec 31st or Jan 10th (very likely). Market makers will by everything after the 30 days of wash sale rule. Remember, this is done by banks/big funds, not by RHers.

They simply kill other retailers by blitzkrieg drop of stocks.

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Unfortunately, I only cut down 25% in trading portfolio. I’m good for semi portfolio, cut to 10% only. But MU looks strong :slight_smile:

That’s I know. RHers don’t short. But RHers may receive stimulus or mom/dad monies to help, could f… market makers by numbers & heavy leverage through reckless purchase of very OTM calls.

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Even I did not do proper change this time, getting screwed, coming out today except BNTX and MRNA.

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@hanera, another guess work, based on your EWT (yet learning) that QQQ settes appx between $280 and $285. Do you see that with EWT?

For alternative count i.e now in wave 4.y, possible completion targets are:

a. ~$260 if wave 4 is a flat. I usually assume is this pattern because is the most common.

b. ~$280 if wave 4 is a triangle.

c. ~ … if combo :grimacing: impossible to tell, too many variations.

Have fun learning EWT. Behavior of wave four (generic label) is impossible to decipher :slight_smile: So I rarely try to predict, just blindly use a flat.

So far, preferred count is not invalidated :grinning:
Today feel like an up day in that open low but charge up.
If today is an up day, Monday is likely to be a down day.

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Today and Monday both are high down day, this is sudden attack by market makers as they do not want to give time to retailers to act !

Watch both days are very deep down slide suppose to be!

It may come down (from peak qqq) to 5.5% (EWT) by Monday evening.

Thereafter, no buyers will be there, fed up only sellers are more till year end.

Btw: Members, all these are guesswork or inferences which can go wrong. Do not take any action based these comments. They are worthless discussions

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Well?

a

Screen Shot 2020-12-11 at 9.16.28 AM

IMO, QQQ calls are really scary to touch.

There are two scenarios:

  1. It must me deep down today and monday or
  2. If it is positive, as you predict - which I doubt, today, it must be monday and tuesday down day.

The reason I give two possibilities, sometime market makers allow the retailer to BTFD concept and once retailers bought stocks, they drop down the market. This is always the case, MM wants retailers to buy at dip.

This is big fish eating small fish story !

Could be morning up, afternoon drop. In order to lure bigger BTFD, need to give them some small winnings.

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Yes, that is always the case during the day. The slide has to come down quickly soon, and must burn every one surprisingly. All these must be done with 4-5 days.

If the drop is delayed, then longer time it will take to fall down.

The MM have all statistics and the computer does everything based on statistical data but trigger by trading analysts.

The call you have is like RHers WSB !

I hope you would have closed call by now. If not, now you see how do they play now. This slide won’t stop until Monday. It is too early to guess Tuesday and all it depends on Monday market drop percentage.

Overall, you can aim 5% from peak 308.29 appx $290 range.

I took another gamble. Long calls (Dec 31 $300) betting that preferred count is right :slight_smile: Alternative count is highly possible but unless it breaks below $296, not going to view it as preferred :slight_smile:

RHers are more reckless, they would long calls (Dec 11 $310) :slight_smile: Also put 10x more money than I did. Ask @pastora . Is how to get 20,000% gain occasionally.

Now only a few greens. BILL, MRNA, SPLK and TWLO (new ATH). @marcus335 has good choice of stocks, he owned BILL and TWLO.

Btw, on the semi portfolio, I go aggressive, shorted put for NVDA and MU + long MU calls (Dec 31). I doubled delta in one day! Wish me luck. Preferred count is CORRECT :pray:

All I can say is this:

Market has not completed the slide yet. This is another 5.5%-9% correction from peak. It will not end by today. Do not think it will recover all of a sudden. The pain days are yet to come before Dec 31st.

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Under @Jil pressure, close all short-term QQQ position for a puny puny puny profit. Not enough to buy an AirPod Max :face_with_symbols_over_mouth: Can only pay for an AirPod Pro.