At a more granular level, the number of single-family homes currently listed for sale in the city (309) is now running 23 percent higher versus the same time last year while the number of listed condominiums on the market (457) is running 28 percent higher. And in terms of pricing and expectations, 19 percent of active listings have undergone at least one price reduction versus 9 percent at the beginning of September last year.
Let’s see if @elt1 prediction of 2017 going down becomes true. If past trend is of any guide, the lull will be short lived lasting for 1-2 years. So get your financial ducks in a row and get ready to shop!
Sell! Sell! Sell!
Ho ho ho!!
Lull until the election is over.
I vote against it until FED raises interest rate in 2017. If FED is not raising interest rate, which I feel very likely, economy going full swing.
With current state, even a 0.25% rate increase will hurt the economy.
Until world economy recovers, it is difficult for FED to raise rates as there will not any higher inflation rate.
That may be true for the economy in general. But Bay Area real estate may have a different dynamic.
I agree bay area real estate depends on the local economy, like every place in real estate. Assuming bay area is tech heavy and it depends on how NASDAQ behaves.
See the red marks, first 2008-9 down turn, next temporary withdrawal of QE in 2011 timeframe, then FED reinstated QE3.
Third is increase in FED rate 0.25 in Dec 2015, made a big fall in Jan/Feb 2016.
After this FED halted raising rates looking at global economic situation, esp oil down, China and Brexit etc. Whatever we see in real estate in 2016 is after math of Tech slow down, TWTR (1000+ millionarres), YELP, NFLX, AMD…etc with big one AAPL ($138 to $106). None of the fallen techs recovered yet to their peak yet.
However, now they started growing, reaching 2015-2016 low bottom. If FED is not raising the rates, they continue to grow. Naturally, real estate continue to pick up when local companies are growing.
So you are telling me the big sale of 2017 is cancelled??
The market has to pause for a spell after such an incredible run-up around here. Even at a buffet, one has to stop eating to eventually take a crap (yes, you won’t see that quoted on Socketsite…)
We never know future, everything guess work.
- FED increases rate, we may have issue
- World economies again fall, especially bigger like China, Japan, Germany, UK…etc, we may have some impact
- Somewhere US related WARs started, we may have impact
…Like this we have worldwide inter-dependency, especially related out local tech economy, affects.
Even now, many IPOs are not coming from bay area, it is stopped as VCs and investors are scared to support now.
My guess: If FED is not raising rates, 2017 will boom again for bay area. If they raise rates, what elt1 predicted will happen.
I forgot what I predicted…But in 2012 I said the party would last till 2017…I didnt say it would end then,…But a reassessment will be required…I didn’t predict a Trump victory…Dilbert did…If Trump wins there will be financial panic and 2017 will be a nightmare. .If Hillary wins there could still be a recession or slowdown…Seems that world markets are driving the future. .Seems like they will influence the Fed which would like to raise rates for domestic reasoms…
The BA RE market is now tied totally tied with tech and stocks, which are volital. …which means that sooner or later there will be a correction…Big question is how much and when…A Trump victory means it will happen by March…
The question is are we in 2008, or 2000?..I think we are more like in 2000, which led to a minor recession in 2001…PA prices dropped 20%…Atherton prices dropped 50%…The rest of the market slogged along…
The uncertainty of the election should slow RE till January. …The big question will be the spring buying season…?Still plenty of buyers and few sellers…
Like I always say, watch the local unemployment rate…housing prices lag employment by a couple of years. .So if we have massive BA unemployment like in 2001-2 then prices will slowly drop till 2019…Rising again in 2020…Could skyrocket in the 20s when millennials start seriously buying…
Rents will get hit harder, faster. .That means be conservative and not over leveraged. .Hotels will be the first hit…Watch hotel occupancy. .the canary in the mine…
As long as unemployment stays low and hotel occupancy stays high, sfhs should be a save haven…
Not sure if this input is relevant but the east bay apartment rents have reamined static (Fremont/Union City), completely flat since the laast one year.
Relevant. Rents in South Bay have been stagnant for nearly two years. Those who try to start asking high eventually are forced to come back down… there are some manage to get the higher rent because of being too new and trusted those relocation specialists. Smarter ones who use Craigslist, trulia, zillow… get lower rent.
Most neighborhoods in SV dropped less than 10% !!! Guess is because they are not bought by founders of Unicorns
The ultra high priced houses are much less liquid and thus have much more room to fall.
I need to see more data to see if we will have a price fall in 2017. I want to buy in 2017 regardless.
There is a chance, but likely long term growth possibly. She has a full time free trustworthy adviser, with no job, who ran the country path.
This is the main reason, she will try to stop rate increase (all guess work) make the economy go further until world issues are resolved.
Consensus is rents are flat, sfhs price growth slow…Question is will rents drop next year…Highend rents are already dropping. .Too many new A properties giving move-in discounts. …Will buyers stick with renting and will there be more sellers? …I dont see many more sellers…wait till spring…
Bubble, What Bubble? Loans are hard to get, apppraisers are stingy, lots of cash buyers…The housing market is being held down not pumped up…Nationally we are building less than half the housing needed…In high demand areas no shfs are being built…Renters are are driving up rents because they cant buy…If the builders were allowed to build then maybe they would over build, but now they can’t at least in the BA…In fact all they are building is apartments. .Highend overpriced cubicles for tech workers…When the market really wants sfhs
Underwriting is still very tough. But it’s getting looser, albeit very slowly. Banks are still afraid the Feds will come after them. Big banks getting sued might make people feel good. But at what costs? Everyday people are being denied loans or getting much smaller loans compared to what they can afford.