Hedge Funds, Big institutions are the market makers. They are like big ships or planes, we are just bike riders! Do not underestimate them, they have good tools. It is not easy to handle billions.
Stocks won’t fall 10000 points in a single day, it goes up and down. If I wait for 1.5 years, It would eat away my money.
The first signal was 1175+ and then 1100+ fall. Even after the first fall, stocks came up, but never touched the peak 26500 and came down 750+ points. IMO, guess work 50%-50% statement, the slide already started and gradually going further.
Every quarter rate hike impacts will be measured by big institutions and drops will happen slowly. Since FED is hiking the rates slowly, stocks are coming down slowly.
In simple fundamental concept, Stock has value (hard to calculate), Growth, and premium. Value is current worth, growth is future profits, premium is what investors ready to pay.
Speculation increases premium, but not real value. All premiums, other than real value and growth, will come down when rate hikes are in place.
If you carefully watch it, speculative stocks (like SHOP) will come down faster than fundamental stocks (like MU or AAPL). Stocks are exactly like real estate, dividends (rent) and appreciation (growth).
You need to read this book (but too much to absorb and boring too), best one for fundamentals.
https://www.amazon.com/Accounting-Columbia-Business-School-Publishing/dp/0231151187
Concept is simplified here http://www.forumtools.biz/oiv/upload/oivlecturepenman.pdf