I am even lazier than you. I am also very naive. So are you telling me we can potentially have 25 years of bull market starting 2009? 
The last one cost me $5m …I just barely recovered and now Jil is talking about the next one…This time I am better prepared, but very few will benefit
1 Like
Depends on which degree it is in and whether it is an extended wave 
Obviously I don’t know or I would not be talking cock with you and is somewhere in a beach or private pool with many babes.
1 Like
Ok. Well, if it keeps going up, I think we’ll have to go out… of California 
Unemployment is often misunderstood. It’s anyone not working, that’s available to work, and has looked in the last 4 weeks. If someone stops looking, then they are no longer unemployed. That’s why labor force participation rate is a much better measure.
Participation rate of men 25-54 (aka prime working age). That’s the “slack” in the labor force. Then there’s all the people working part-time that want full-time. That’s another 5.2M (economic reasons only) or almost enough to fill the 6M open jobs.
3 Likes
There are millions of workers over 50 that nobody will hire…It is stupid, and a national disgrace…I can do the work of 3 millennials…
3 Likes
You can see it continued to decline even during the “recovery”. That’s why so much of the country feels the recovery never happened. Unemployment only decreased, because peoole gave up looking for a job.
The people experiencing the recovery are tech employees and investors with assets. The rest of the country was left behind.
3 Likes
And the rest of the country will keep wages depressed. Raising short term rates is a big mistake.
1 Like
I do not want to scare everyone with my side of story, I stay away from discussions, esp from fear of making a wrong statement. My statement validity is 50% right and 50% wrong (it means worthless), viewers do your own research.
Last two recessions (2000 and 2008) were made by FED rate hikes aggressively. Thereafter FED started rate hike now, but slowly as they do not want a recession, but a correction to keep the economy stable.
My first assumption is that whenever FED hikes the rate, the economy will fall after the end of last rate hike (as happened last two times). This time FED has clearly said 3 rate hikes in 2018 and 2 more in 2019.
The simple principle: USA is credit economy. Any credit getting hardened, it affects credit based companies. Rate hike means bottom line/profit margin hit. In order to recover, companies will go for cost cutting, including jobshed.
Rate hike introduces the above cycle and market sees it at some point later.
Getting down 1175+,1100+, 750 up or down are abnormal, but those are made by big financial institutions, but not from common people like you and me. Big financial institutions rigorously go through analysis and decide. It needs trillions to trade down, not possible by small individuals
It must be well planned action. When this comes, repeatedly and subsequent fall after rate hikes, this gives me idea of volatility and Big financial institutions preempt common investors like me.
Then the theory of yield curve flattening. This time, markets are sagging with flattening, looks like prelude for big changes.
Many cash rich companies use this opportunity to buyback shares. Now, all companies getting the offshore cash and keeping it ready to buy at DIP with tax cut initiatives.
All I am doing is the same, getting them in cash, wait at sidelines for good opportunity.
Fed raising rates doesn’t necessarily tip market from bull to bear. Look at the history of FOMC rate action from 1982 to 2000:
I keep going back to the 82 bull market because I think we are in the middle of a powerful secular bull market like the one starting in 82. If I am right this may be the last big bull market for my investing life.
2 Likes
FOMO FOMO FOMO, buy buy buy!!! Catch every single falling knife!!! 
1 Like
Optimists make much more money than pessimists. 
2 Likes
Dont bet on hedge fund doing right thing. They are most often clueless.
Did you write your will? Do you have heirs, did you setup a trust?
It was on my todo list last year and I didn’t do it. 
That would be 1.5 years from now.
What is the rationale of selling all your stocks 1.5 years earlier?
Hedge Funds, Big institutions are the market makers. They are like big ships or planes, we are just bike riders! Do not underestimate them, they have good tools. It is not easy to handle billions.
Stocks won’t fall 10000 points in a single day, it goes up and down. If I wait for 1.5 years, It would eat away my money.
The first signal was 1175+ and then 1100+ fall. Even after the first fall, stocks came up, but never touched the peak 26500 and came down 750+ points. IMO, guess work 50%-50% statement, the slide already started and gradually going further.
Every quarter rate hike impacts will be measured by big institutions and drops will happen slowly. Since FED is hiking the rates slowly, stocks are coming down slowly.
In simple fundamental concept, Stock has value (hard to calculate), Growth, and premium. Value is current worth, growth is future profits, premium is what investors ready to pay.
Speculation increases premium, but not real value. All premiums, other than real value and growth, will come down when rate hikes are in place.
If you carefully watch it, speculative stocks (like SHOP) will come down faster than fundamental stocks (like MU or AAPL). Stocks are exactly like real estate, dividends (rent) and appreciation (growth).
You need to read this book (but too much to absorb and boring too), best one for fundamentals.
https://www.amazon.com/Accounting-Columbia-Business-School-Publishing/dp/0231151187
Concept is simplified here http://www.forumtools.biz/oiv/upload/oivlecturepenman.pdf
3 Likes
It looks like 3% of the total population quit the work force permanently since 2008…Mostly baby boomers retiring early? That is 9 million people that could return to work it necessary…People that would depress wages…I don’t see wage inflation at least for the next 5 years…
3 Likes
Gen-X population is very small. It would make sense that Gen-X could demand very high salary due to less competition in the same age group.
Or does the lack of Gen-X create premature promotion opportunities for millennials? Or provide some boomers a longer than normal career? Or provides an opportunity for inexpensive robots to replace human workers? Or all 3 scenarios happen with good Millenials, good boomers and good robots become the top beneficiaries.
I remember about a prediction of worker shortage due to the small Gen-X population. Seems that it’s going to happen soon.
This is a billion dollar worth of research. Is there any good researcher working on this prediction? I would be really interested.
1 Like