This is not rumor, but experimental drug is already in Pipeline. Once they have three trials with success rate, they will submit to FDA for approval and then only used to help on patients.
This is a long process, it may take 2-5 years, some times early
mRNA-4157 First Trial started in 2017, 2nd is currently going, collaboration with Merck…etc
Normally, when the third trial has started, people look at future potential. The 3rd trial may be paused or cancelled or revisited or success higher level for FDA approval.
Stocks will reach each status, success means upside, any other straight downside. Near the success time, we need to get in (hard to know).
Any way, if MRNA crosses above $150, you can decide what to do at that time.
I have always stayed away from biotech. To many false promises and overly optimistic scientists. Plus there is always competition.
High risk high reward or total collapse like the recent Muscular Dystrophy drug
I don’t invest in Big Pharma because it’s like investing in the Mafia, but if you’re going to, you should do it on bad news. Big Pharma will always be there, you just want to ride the good news up. I think the question is whether the company is big enough to weather the bad news. If bad news will kill it, don’t invest.
I also stayed away with MRNA (just traded that stock), but when I see 15B coming as orders and covid-19 is going to take 2021 and 2022, I just bought BNTX and MRNA.
These two companies are clearly shorted - with vested interest from market - giving me opportunity to buy the stocks - once again - at low price.
I took one call on MRNA yesterday which I may sell appx in Feb or Mar when MRNA goes above $175.
Rest of the biotech I am not so much interested, but may take small portion of ARKG as diversification.
Presently, MRNA is 45B company, 2021 sales potential 15Billion.
Similar to MRNA, we have BNTX which has received same 15Billion across the world, but they share the profit with PFE (which % we do not know - assuming 50%).
BNTX market cap is 22.5Billion now, having 15B orders (profit sharing with PFE) went down from $129.54 to $81.5 (18B at that time). They have same technology like MRNA.
IMO, BNTX has long growth as the company is too small in market cap.
I grabbed enough when it went down to $81.5, now 15%-23% up level for me. No plans to sell either.
Here is the possible fundamental analysis someone shared with me (it is in UK currency).
Biotech is like going to Vegas and betting it all on red or black. Incredibly high stakes. Lots of promises yet most companies never have revenue. Not for the faint of heart. I work in the industry.
Wasn’t looking carefully at Paul EW count. I noted the retracement is more than 61.8% so shouldn’t be retracement of a wave three (generic label) i.e. retracement is a wave four, should be a retracement of a wave one (generic label) i.e. the retracement is wave two (generic label). However, if it is wave A of a triangle (which is definitely a wave four), then it is ok to have more than 61.8%. That is, I don’t agree with Paul that $102.66 is completion of a wave four… should be completion of a wave A of a triangle.
Below is the preferred count for MRNA with wave IV as a triangle
A 90 days EW chart dated Dec 31 Not updated but is correct labeling. I was busy reading up on Cathie and her ARK totally forget about MRNA - miss the opportunity to long calls or short puts when it hits $102, I know looking at too many tickers mess my brain yet keep falling into the same trap. FOCUS, FOCUS, FOCUS - keep having to remind myself.
Second, issue with EWT, no one is clear what is the correct wave it is.
You are assuming 178.50 to 102.66 is corrective wave A (dn), and subsequent wave B(up) and C (dn) are there. This means you are saying MRNA is bound to go down below $102.66 ( as B (up) and C (down) )
Fundamentals are against it:
IMO, based on my algo, that is not going to happen. This week is a momentum week for healthcare (with JPM conference). All current and past research history will be presented to investors, esp Bank related. They will share all other projections, future timelines etc… Once banks get insight, I expect, price will shoot up as banks take on such low price.
Then, quarterly results will take the stock prices further above. It will be non-stop until market prices to the correct value.
Nothing we can over-rule/over-look. Let us wait and see in 60 days where we are !
Just indicative, I am not God, you’re really a 4x2. Just for illustration only. Btw, none of the prices are below $102.66 in the diagram.
A valid alternate count is $178.50 is wave i and $102.66 is wave ii. Now in powerful uptrend wave iii. However, I am not assigning this as a preferred count because of macro conditions + f… rollout of vaccines. This is my judgement call. Btw, try not to be a 4x2. You’re really want me to draw an animal picture with intestines included before you can understand?
You are describing the fundamentals supporting the alternate count. Is valid. All counts have fundamental logic behind. If you’re the Elliottician, you would choose this as a preferred count and my preferred as alternate count. Judgement call Btw, did you do any strategic planning before? Not referring to tactical and operational planning… presume you understand the differences.
Just indicative, I am not God => Yes, I completely understand. Even, I am not 100% sure as market prediction can go wrong. For that matter, no one can predict.
We are just discussing together. You are sharing your EWT expertise and I am trying my level to use my algorithm.
In fact, your EWT helped me from a disaster esp with MRNA and BNTX". While it was going down, I sold half of what I was holding (I should have done 100%) for a break-even price. That helped me retain my old $88-$92 purchase prices and then I purchased again at a lower prices repeatedly.
BTW: I really enjoy the EWTs you shared (do not mistake me if I counter you).
Now I am fan of EWT, still reading books !
Yes, these were purposefully shorted to make year-end profit taking (exactly matched Dec 31, 2020).
Annoyed with myself sleeping through the low $102.66 of MRNA, no much effort doing EWA and didn’t act. Consolation prize is I have,
200 shares and some Lotto calls… could have made a killing. Now have to satisfy with puny gain.
You are too good on EWT and try to analyze using those. That will help you grow faster and also fun in doing it.
Initially, I started EWT (long back) but left it as I was confused about the 5 waves and 3 corrections (ABC). I could not clearly identify or could not program them properly. Left it and started doing my own algorithms.
Now, I need to revive EWT and add it to my algorithm (if possible), but it may take months to master it.
Not updated but is correct labeling. I was busy reading up on Cathie and her ARK totally forget about MRNA - miss the opportunity to long calls or short puts when it hits $102, I know looking at too many tickers mess my brain yet keep falling into the same trap. FOCUS, FOCUS, FOCUS - keep having to remind myself.
