MRNA & BNTX - Are these next 10x stock?

[Jil]

@DH0

There are 30+ vaccines in development, and I have not seen a compelling argument why mRNA would consistently be more effective than, e.g., a live attenuated virus.

Just updating whatever I know:

There are more than 100+ companies (not 30+) trying to develop vaccines, but handful few companies working out mRNA (Messenger RNA) method which has so far given success against virus. ** Messenger RNA is a new innovative technology.**

Of these, two are MRNA (US-94.1%), BNTX (Germany-95%) and third one is AZN (70% success, not completed 3rd level testing).

Since demand is there, MRNA is charging high $37 with discount only to USA (as US government sponsored loans IIRC). Almost full year capacity (500M) orders booked, esp US is priority. Euro will approve it jan 6th.

BNTX charges $19 but shares profit with PFE, full year capacity (1.3Bln) orders booked, USA, UK and Euro also approved.

Both are highly reliable vaccines, naturally US, UK and Euro do not like to compromise on quality/standards. Drugs are always expensive by the amount of research and patent for 20 years. For example allergic drug epi-pen costs $650-$700 per shot.

Third one from AZN, UK and India placed huge orders as they are cheaper $4/dose, but not proven to the MRNA & BNTX level. A long way to complete - may be six months.

Fourth, few days before China Sinovac said 91% success and brazil said Sinovac is 50%-70% only (conflicting results)

Everyone is rushing their claims only to get various countries orders.

In six months, when the trailing team, such as AZN and Sinovac or other complete their third level test with almost 30000 people, these two companies BNTX & MRNA would have experience with 25 million people experience and they would have released new versions to meet 99% quality standards.

In short, BNTX & MRNA is at Usain Bolt level, started already and for others it is not easy to catch these two companies with full year order book position. This is the benefit of leadership.

If they finish the one year Dec 31, 2021, these two would have made few billions in profit which will make them financially stable position and fund other 20+ projects in their side. They will continue to grow with their own technology.

This is ultimate lift off by Covid vaccine innovation !

This is exactly going like TSLA, people were pessimistic/scared when stocks dropped from $350 to $180 and then banks picked it to massive level now.

I do not know whether these will go like TSLA, but I expect minimum 2x (with current price) by end of 2021. BNTX Forward P/E is 5.46 and MRNA forward P/E is 10.84.

[DH0]

We will see! Personally I expect the market to be dominated by traditional vaccines in 6 months e.g. the adenovirus vaccine from J&J. The Moderna vaccine will be more like the Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf (early to market but not that practical) than the model S or model 3.

[Jil]

@DH0

We will see! Personally I expect the market to be dominated by traditional vaccines in 6 months e.g. the adenovirus vaccine from J&J. The Moderna vaccine will be more like the Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf (early to market but not that practical) than the model S or model 3…

Just sharing FYI:

J&J paused 3rd trial by oct and resumed Dec 9th with 44000 people testing. They are still six months behind the test.

If six months are over, each BNTX and MRNA would have made many revision with massive money coming in by the current orders.

FDA/EUA approval are major milestones.

J&J is big company and they can achieve this, but as of now behind these two ones (actually behind AZN too). They can only break these 3 forerunners by their low cost (if they price lower than BNTX, but impossible to go below AZN $4).

Their current plan is “We continue to anticipate that interim data from the ENSEMBLE trial will be available by the end of January. If the vaccine is safe and effective, an emergency use authorization application could be submitted to the FDA in February”

This link is little old (They resumed Dec 9th, 2020)

J&J pause adds to adenovirus vaccine doubts

[DH0]

J&J paused recruitment on 10/13 and resumed on or about 10/27. It was a two week delay.

https://pharmanewsintel.com/news/johnson-johnson-resumes-phase-3-trial-of-covid-19-vaccine

Results are due in January with possible approval in February. Two months behind the mRNA vaccines not 6. And it will likely only require one shot, not two…

[Jil]

@manch

The market has priced in unrealistically fast vaccination. So far progress is running far slower. Could be trouble.

When market is bottomed, all news/media provide scary stories after stories, scare the retail investors away buying opportunity. Both BNTX and MRNA bottomed almost (I even bought MRNA and BNTX today) as My algorithm pointed out “Buy”.

Just wait for 45 days, everything changes after quarterly results are announced.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/how-to-trade-moderna-after-40-pct-slump-december-2020

[mcp]

Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine approved by UK regulator 

[hanera]

@Jil

My best effort Cycle degree wave IV would take 6mths to a few years to complete. Also not sure whether wave A is completed. I have no idea what the corrective wave would look like.

[Jil]

@hanera

whether wave A is completed.

IMO, based on my algo, Current bottom completed and recovery will come now.

MRNA is 52% institutions holding and BNTX 94% institutions holdings.

Coming results, both are turning from loss to gain at least next 2 years good income.

Forward P/E Is 12 and 6.

[hanera]

@Jil

IMO, based on my algo, Current bottom completed and recovery will come now.

Well it means your algo is saying wave A (or wave A.a) is completed.

@Jil

Coming results, both are turning from loss to gain at least next 2 years good income.

It could possibly mean wave IV.B might be higher than wave III - so called expanded flat which is surprisingly common and is treacherous in that we often misinterpreted as wave V and go heavily in. Then a killer wave IV.C follows which give you hope, so you add and lose even more money. See diagram below. IMHO, is best to unload ALL once breakeven and forget about MRNA. Too risky, there are plenty of safer bets.

Real life example of wave IV, INTC, MSFT, TSLA,

[Jil]

@hanera

IMHO, is best to unload ALL once breakeven and forget about MRNA. Too risky, there are plenty of safer bets.

Both BNTX and MRNA are having so much potential to grow. Now, I am almost 5%-7% down from my breakeven price. At this stage, I may not consider these are too risky bets considering fundamentals.

Even if AZN and JNJ gets FDA approvals, the current order book of BNTX and MRNA fulfils one year of their returns. Revenue is $13 Billions each for them - as of now. Both are leaders in Covid vaccines and they have long way to grow.

Your real life wave IV is excellent example, I will review when MRNA & BNTX gives me some profit to offload portion of it so that I can balance it.

The only reason I hesitate to offload after break even is that these two are really making breakthrough Innovation) in medical technology in record time. They can easily find any remedy for future viruses and long way to go. The whole issue of covid will be eradicated in just 2 years.

[Zeapelido]

Forward P/E based on 2025?

Based on cash flow from vaccines only or other treatments too?

[Jil]

@Zeapelido

Forward P/E based on 2025?
Based on cash flow from vaccines or other treatments too?

I just see them in finviz (which may be refinitiv estimates). Covid medicines may be accounted only 2021 and diminished in 2 years. There are other 20+ vaccines both companies are working, but I do not have any idea about those.

[Jil]

@hanera

MRNA and BNTX are near ATHs when you first bought.

When I first bought, MRNA was $88-$92 range and BNTX was also $85 range. Mistake was buying additional later when they were peak which I removed with a breakeven sell, that gave me good cash position that I am buying now. Now, I have 5%-7% loss level which I can hold long.

It looks like institutions are taking year-end profit with huge appreciation. Everything must change when next quarterly results are out. Any way, these two stocks are having stronger fundamentals and I do not want to sell any of my holding until I see they are getting reversed.

On any case, if I plan to hold for 2 years, I should not be concerned about this current drops which is usual.

Only issue is that I should have sold they were peak around $127 and $170 when you first published the EWT. That would have been very nice.

For that matter, you remember telling about AAPL buy…buy…buy, I bought at $230 (at that time) and sold $150 (at that time).

[hanera]

@Jil

For that matter, you remember telling about AAPL buy…buy…buy, I bought at $230 (at that time)

I can’t recall the price. I know I was teasing @manch as AAPL rallies. I won’t buy any stocks when RSI/ Stochastic is too overbought and out of Bollinger band.

[pastora]

Yeah, I gave up MRNA few days ago as it was showing too much weakness. I just poured everything into FNGU, AMZN, AAPL, SLV, UGL and ethereum as they were all showing momentum last 2 weeks. I do like to visit MRNA again but after it consolidates for a while likely.

[Jil]

@hanera

@Jil

For that matter, you remember telling about AAPL buy…buy…buy, I bought at $230 (at that time)

I can’t recall the price. I know I was teasing @manch as AAPL rallies. I won’t buy any stocks when RSI/ Stochastic is too overbought and out of Bollinger band.

AAPL was my first experiment with buy/hold which I felt bad and left the boat. My algo was very elementary level at that time. I understood RSI/overbought that later.

I won’t buy any stocks when RSI/ Stochastic is too overbought and out of Bollinger band. => True, the second lot I purchased was the mistake which I set right 10 days before. In fact, I thought many hours before buying the second lot, felt very risky. I did not expect a 40% correction at that time, thought of 5% correction.

Looks like market players are very wild esp year end profit taking. They simply take advantage of 580% and 180% appreciation in a year.

Now, you see both are low end of Bollinger band, position is good for buying now.

[Zeapelido]

This is what I am focused on with these companies.

The story of mRNA: How a once-dismissed idea became a leading technology in...

Can these companies figure out how to deliver mRNA for therapies that require many doses? If so the market could be huge.

Moderna’s promise — and the more than $2 billion it raised before going public in 2018 — hinged on creating a fleet of mRNA medicines that could be safely dosed over and over. But behind the scenes the company’s scientists were running into a familiar problem. In animal studies, the ideal dose of their leading mRNA therapy was triggering dangerous immune reactions — the kind for which Karikó had improvised a major workaround under some conditions — but a lower dose had proved too weak to show any benefits.

Moderna had to pivot. If repeated doses of mRNA were too toxic to test in human beings, the company would have to rely on something that takes only one or two injections to show an effect. Gradually, biotech’s self-proclaimed disruptor became a vaccines company, putting its experimental drugs on the back burner and talking up the potential of a field long considered a loss-leader by the drug industry.

[Jil]

@Zeapelido

Can these companies figure out how to deliver mRNA for therapies that require many doses? If so the market could be huge.

The main reason, for both BNTX and MRNA, of success is messenger RNA technology, a new method to identify the virus and instruct the human immune system to act against it. There are 6 others in that race, rest of them are traditional vaccines - those are not effective for covid-19 so far.

They made workable solution within 5 months of covid-19 sample and tested until Nov with 30000 (MRNA) and 44000 (BNTX) volunteers. Normally, it takes 5-8 years to get a solution, but they had only 5 months for covid-19.

They do lot of cancer medicine trials, but they are not proven yet. Mostly they use computer simulation to create special proteins and then being tested on trials. Everything goes to 3 levels of trials and FDA approval without which it is worth nothing (just speculation).

Covid-19 vaccine may help grow only 2021 & 2022, we can assume very low revenue thereafter. IMO, when these two companies becoming financially cash flow excess, they can continue their research and make some progress.

[Jil]

@Zeapelido

The link was excellent, hope these two companies make future wonders.

I just read it completely now.

Thanks for sharing.

[Jil]

Both BNTX and MRNA becomes sink hole !

Hoping it stops from today end of day as the sell-off stops by year-end profit taking by funds !