Wow earlier than I thought… We noticed a big difference between May 2017 and March 2018 when we rented for the second time. The owner seemed kind of desperate to rent their higher end investment property. Part of why we chose to keep renting… if landlords have trouble renting out their BA houses, which already have very low cap rates compared to other parts of the US, they may start dumping them
Only after RE prices drop more than 10%. Many don’t believe that would happen so are holding on.
I will dump none of it. I have deep pockets. You won’t get any discount from me for sure.
1 Like
exavtly what I was saying earlier… this Group is not representative. When people lose their jobs or other bad things happen they have to sell, they don’t have a choice
Above sound logical because whoever said that look at only one parameter 
There are many parameters affecting demand and supply of houses, and their prices. House prices can still go up even if demand has reduced for example, cost of construction keep going up and there is not much supply.
1 Like
Don’t worry, I will remember all of you as my evil empire swallows the Bay Area RE market
bwahahahwhahaha
oh wait, according to Marcus I am a resentful poor ass that thinks is very special and just festers with envy as the market runs away from me 
1 Like
I never worry about job security. Besides, Dr. Evil wants to buy in places like PA, not DC 
again, clearly this group is not representative. 
@Rent_and_Vent, what is the point of your posting? You seem to live in the nice high-end house at the very good rate and firmly believe RE will tank soon.
This is almost perfect situation for you.
What kind of reaction or anwser are you looking for in this very biased group according to your analysis?
I am a bit confused by your intention here.
Any posting is welcome here but still always puzzled by your posting.
2 Likes
rent_and_vent.
Venting 
3 Likes
trying to stir debate and add a counterpoint. I always try to do it respectfully and with humor, even when others are not that respectful towards me.
If it is not welcomed, I will refrain from posting anything negative in the future. You can keep it 100% optimistic.
We have an old saying in Spain: “No hay mas ciego que el que no quiere ver”
Over and out… good luck to all
I think it’s much healthier to be exposed to both sides of an argument. Keeps you grounded if nothing else.
None of us know the future; whether in stock market or real estate. For me it’s more so in the stock market, and that’s why I announced here a month ago that I am getting out of it fully. To guess the future, we have to carefully look for similar situations in the past and adjust for any unique differences now. It’s a bit easier in the real estate than in the stock market. For me the situation now is much less dire than during the dotcom bubble. People are still not crazily bullish, and almost everybody believes a crash is coming. That makes them cautious and moderate in their risk taking. Real estate went up after 2000 (after stock crash and massive layoffs). How does one explain that? How is the situation worse now?
I think housing price has hit the ceiling for now, probably flat for 5-6 years. However, I don’t expect a deep dive. As a buyer, you can wait and time the market for a 15-20% discount if you are patient and not too greedy at the bottom.
I also think 15-20% discount in a slow market is pretty common. You can do it with 2% of the market, which might involve extra work in some area. The discount is just the reward for extra risk and extra effort.
We’ll have a slowdown in housing and economy. It’s not a crash. Fed is engineering a slowdown on purpose so there’s no real surprise here. Since it’s an engineered slowdown, I think they can also engineer a stimulus to avoid falling off the cliff.
My guess is that 2019 would be a slow year. But Trump may engineer a pickup in 2020 for his political career.
1 Like
Also, just to add what I know about people using RSUs to get qualified for home loans. People (including me) don’t like to reveal all of their accounts to banks. I don’t feel comfortable doing that. If I can get qualified by showing my previous year pay stubs, and banks are willing to include bonuses and stock grants as income, I will be happy to get away with just pay stubs. That does not say anything about how much cash cushion that I have or that I have not been steadily selling my RSUs and moving into index funds. Most companies have learned that lesson from previous crashes and enroll employees with companies like Betterment or Wealthfront that regularly sell RSUs.
Jil, wqj and manch don’t think so. 3 vs 1?
Wired $1M to my account for the answer.