My dose of negativity for the day :-)

62

Crash already came right?

63

Almost 100% of people think so. There is a saying, don’t follow the crowd.

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All serious Professional analysts said RE in BA is going to go down after the Tax changes.

Most analysts on this forum are current/past software/hw engineers :slight_smile:

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As you all know stock market gets into uptrend when majority of the people think it’s going to go down, and vice versa. The fact that majority of the people are worried about a crash implies that there won’t be a crash anytime soon. I don’t mean a 20% correction that happened this month. I meant a crash like the dotcom one.

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Insinuating that we are not good RE analysts/ investors :wink:

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If the real estate slowdown has to do with the tax law, then we would have seen market slowdown from last November. It went up for 6 months at least after that. The one big change for bay area at around April/May was that rent-control went onto the ballot.

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I’m just saying it’s a multivariate analysis(not just equation) and it requires a full time job to do such analysis with enough resources/people(economist,RE expert, tax professional etc etc) and even those professional people get it wrong many times.

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RE doesn’t happen instantly unlike stocks.

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70

Huh? Statistical analysis? Can use machine learning? Many here are very good at these fields.

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Almost 100% people think that the sun will rise tomorrow morning, should I be contrarian and bring an umbrella?

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Buyers/sellers in the bay area are generally very aware of happenings. They would have stopped buying immediately. Why would they not? The general slow behavior may not be applicable to BA.

73

Yes. Is going to be very hot.

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74

Contrarian principle is only applicable where mass psychology has an effect on the outcome. Markets are totally about perception.

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Who is that analyst? De Leon said that last year but I was not sure whether he was trying to get more listings.

He actually said that spring would be strong since buyers in the pipeline would not stop buying, but market will be slow in the fall 2018 since new buyers would be discouraged by the new tax law. I still think that he was right by coincidence. My view is that slowdown is due to interest rate, tax law change is not the main reason.

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76

Bay Area people are not that special :slight_smile:

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77

2nd reason is higher mortgage rates. 1,2 punch leading to some bullishness fading away.

78

Oh, come on! Some of us work at Twitter and FB. We created the instantaneous news revolution that the world is going nuts with.

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79

I totally don’t understand contrarian.
Contrarian to who?
Contrarian to the mainstream? to the contrarian? to the contrarian to the contrarian?
IMHO, if you have info/reason that indicate a direction/ outcome that is different from the majority, don’t be afraid to be contrarian. That is what I believe contrarian principle mean. It doesn’t mean I should go contrarian to current majority view for no good reason.

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80

:stuck_out_tongue:

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I vote for the interest rate increase as the reason. I think Powell is going to slow down as he indicated last week. Provided Trump does not publicly incite him otherwise. :smile:

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