Next 10x Stock Winner


#223

For emerging markets, I think the products that enable carriers to increase bandwidth at low cost will be key. UBNT has the best products for that. All the data needs to go to the cloud and back. Cisco and Juniper make products that are far too expensive for emerging markets. They’ll dominate the US Market where people can pay $100+/mo for a cell phone bill.


#224

UBNT main strength is in quality and consumer market. They are far better than Linksys, Netgear, TPlink…etc

When we talk about “significantly increase bandwidth requirements for networks” or “cloud data”, we are focusing about enterprise systems.

At current product level, UBNT is not focusing on enterprise level other than small business (say 10 to 50 people companies).


#225

Their original product was for service providers to connect cell towers where it was too expensive to run fiber to connect them. That was Robert’s first invention and the reason he left Apple. It was hooking WiFi up to a big power supply to extend the range to miles. Their first products were sold to service providers in developing countries. The consumer stuff is very new.


#226

TWLO made the original screen. It’s up on a earnings beat and guidance increase. It dropped a big right after the IPO when Uber said it was developing it’s on tech and phasing out using TWLO. Turns out that’s not that big of deal as they are growing rapidly with other existing and new customers. I wouldn’t buy on a day it’s up this much, but I think it’s worth watching for an entry point.


#227

Micro-cap (less than $2B market cap)
SPWR…500 shares
AMBA…50 shares
LQMT…70,000 shares
SYNA…50 shares

Added SYNA to incentivize myself to read more about how good is this company is position for the coming trend of voice, IoT, and connected car. So could sell any of above if not satisfied with what I read.

TWLO - Isn’t what they are doing is already done by the big boys like Apple and Google? They are serving other small boys?


#228

They’re customers are businesses. They are how you get anonymous text from your Uber driver or eat 24 delivery person. It lets people use their personal cell without customers knowing the employees personal number. You could also run a distributed call center with it. It’d actually be awesome to have for work. You could use a single cell phone but have a different phone number for work.


#229

I do not know about SYNA or TWLO. All these are risky bets !


#230

Only for money you are willing to lose them all :grinning:
That is once you bought them, expect not to get back your money.


#231

Most people do not view RE investments as money you are okay losing. That says a lot about the relative staying power.


#232

Seven Up, replace DATA with SPLK.
Small Cap (more than $2B, less than $10B)
UBNT 100 shares
VEEV 75 shares
IRBT 25 shares
SPLK 0 shares
SHOP 0 shares
CRUS 100 shares
FSLR 100 shares

PANW didn’t pass the growth criteria. Good to buy a cybersecurity stock?


#233

Transforming into Consumer IoT Human Interface Leader


#234

Shares of touch-sensor and display chip maker Synaptics (SYNA) are down $7.74, over 15%, at $42.80, in late trading, after the company this afternoon reported fiscal Q4 revenue in line with analysts’ expectations, and profit that beat by a penny, but forecast this quarter’s revenue well below consensus, citing a shortfall in chips for mobile products.

Revenue in the three months ended in June rose to $426.5 million, yielding EPS of $1.18.

Analysts had been modeling $426.5 million and $1.17.

For the current quarter, Synaptics sees revenue in a range of $380 million to $445 million.

CFO Wajid Ali, addressing the outlook, said that with a backlog of $222 million entering the quarter, and given customer forecasts, the outlook for this quarter’s revenue “reflects a sequential decline in our mobile business offset by post-acquisition revenue from Conexant.”

Ali predicted this fiscal year’s revenue will be “back-end loaded,” as they say. "For fiscal 2018, we expect to generate low single-digit top-line growth weighted towards the second half of the year, coinciding with the ramp of new products and the growth of our IoT business.”


#235

Exactly. If you believe what they said, “back-end loaded”, now is a buying opportunity. Apparently Apple didn’t buy their TDDI and they have to depend on Samsung and others to buy, and on growth of IoT business.


#236

Seven Up, replace FSLR with PANW.
Small Cap (more than $2B, less than $10B)
UBNT 100 shares
VEEV 75 shares
IRBT 25 shares
SPLK 40 shares
SHOP 25 shares
CRUS 100 shares
PANW 20 shares

Now would monitoring closely to see which one to add heavily.


#237

I’ve followed PANW off and on. I do think cyber security will be a secular growth story. I don’t think we know which horse will be the big winner yet though.

I’m still vetting the original list. I’ve narrowed it down.

ACIA
APPF
BCOR
BL
CAVM
CRUS
ELLI
PAYC
PFPT
SHOP
TWLO
UBNT
VEEV
YEXT
ZEN

So far, UBNT is the only one I own. I owned that before the screen. I like VEEV, SHOP, and TWLO the most so far. I think they play on trends that’ll create cyclical growth plus they are leaders in the trend.


#238

What TWLO does.

In layman’s terms, the company provides a cloud-based platform for organizations that have complex text-massaging and voice-based communication needs. As an example, ride-hailing service Uber uses Twilio as its communications backbone, sending updates as to their driver’s location and estimated arrival time to riders.

The need for such technology is obvious, and significant. We live in an increasingly mobile and increasingly always-connected world, and if Twilio doesn’t do it, somebody else will.

Therein lies the rub for Twilio, and by extension, for TWLO stock holders. While Twilio is smack-dab in the middle of a growth market, a great number of other outfits are getting into the business and competing indirectly (and even directly) with Twilio. Zendesk Inc (NYSE:ZEN) and RingCentral Inc (NYSE:RNG) are a couple of those names tiptoeing into Twilio’s turf, but so is web behemoth Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).

That competition is the crux of what pulled the rug out from underneath Twilio this year.

What comms backbone do Lyft and Didi use?

AMZN is making TWLO tough to own or validates the large market opportunity in the UCaaS (Unified Communications as a Service) market.

3 Reasons Twilio Inc (TWLO) Stock Is Still Dead Money 1. Concentrated customers, Uber 10%, WhatsApp 9%. 2. Price to sales at 9.5 is too high. 3. Amazon Connect.


#239

The irony is Twilio runs on AWS. Ring central runs their own data center. Apparently, I was the first person they interviewed that realized that and asked about it. The level of depreciation made it really obvious (I thought). They weren’t sure if their costs were better doing that vs running on AWS. I was a bit stunned no one had ever done the analsysis.

I’m not sure the other two use. Twilio has said Uber is their largest customer at 10% of revenue.


#240

Since UBNT is a low cost disruptor to CSCO, I can see the possibility of it being a 10x. However, there is no mega cap business in cloud-based CRM yet, the biggest is salesforce.com which is only $64B market cap, about 8x of VEEV.

Cloud-based CRM

VEEV is a cloud-based CRM for life science companies because of licensing agreement with salesforce.com it can’t enter other business segment.

VEEV is not a top 10 CRM vendors in 2015.

Is Peter Gassner better than Marc Benioff.

High fwd P/E = 64. High price/sales = 15.


#241

https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-difference-between-CRM-and-ERP

Workday is a “ERP” company. Does its software have any CRM capability?

Salesforce is a “CRM” company. Does its software have any ERP capability?

Why are these two separate? Does Oracle offer both in the same tool?


#242

Workday is starting to enter finance which is one part of ERP. So currently it covers only HR which is only one small part of ERP.

Likewise Salesforce is only CRM company, doesnt cover other areas of ERP.

Only SAP, Oracle are major ERP companies and offer both CRM and ERP. Originally CRM was called customer service module of SAP was part of ERP, as Customer service became more and more important to companies and they realize they can monetize service better and improve sales and marketing CRM is born. CRM broadly covers sales, marketing and service of a company