You seem to love algorithms and misunderstood the definition of speculation.
Trading by definition is speculation, regardless of the fundamentals.
Use of options with the intention to sell within one year is speculation, regardless of fundamentals of the businesses.
Many analysts and commentators including Jim Cramer feel buying excessive overvaluation is considered as speculation, that is buying AAPL and TSLA now is speculation.
Btw, late Philips Fisher doesn’t consider overvaluation is a reason to sell.
He did indirectly given the reason: he believes in business model that can be profitable even if they are run by idiots. He doesn’t believe in those that need strong leadership.
@Jil
Above post is made on Jan 10, 2020. It wasn’t stated clearly, started buying from $110s (divergence first appeared) down to $90 (bottom). A difference of $20, nearly 20% down, a position trader is willing to withstand a larger decline than a day trader.
Posted on Jan 18, 2020. My bet is the worse case is decline to $115 which is less than 10% decline from $123.27 (Friday close).
Buy first then count! One must be flexible and not stubborn like you
My cloud portfolio is surviving well but the option portfolio because of the high leverage is
TWLO has re-bounced from the 61.8% retracement of the impulse (intermediate degree wave i from $86.27 to $134) like magic - retracement is not the same as pull back. Promising. However, if $134 is the completion of Primary degree wave 5, this re-bounce is just a DCB, and TWLO would decline to below $100. Yes, I’m always not sure, just probability and statistics. Actually, I look at a few cloud stocks, all have similar possibilities, so that scare me a bit, so just hold one, after all, behavior is about the same. It is a well documented fact that 70% of the stocks move together, and nearly all in the same industry/sector move together. TWLO represents 50% delta of portfolio through LEAPS calls representing 20% of value - 2.5x leverage. So if TWLO bombs, got 80% cash to come back Very critical to have funds to bounce back or is game over.
Edit: Noted it went down as low as $105.28, darn, didn’t put a stink bid to buy.
down, a position trader is willing to withstand a larger decline than a day trader.
profit.
