$5/share is stupid and meaningless. It should be based on market cap.
I just noticed DPZ (Domino Pizza) was selling at $3.87 during 2008-2009, now selling at $186. This appreciation is far greater than AAPL.
Who knows at that time?
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Well yes, but it also dropped from $33 to $3 from 2008 to 2010. Could you stomach the 90% drop? If you canāt, then you donāt deserve the 10000% rise.
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Other than me, who else here suffer through a 90% drop in stock portfolioās worth (not just single stock)? I suffer through 1 90%, 2 50%, many 20%. Is like making love, after the first time, it gets easier to withstand the decline.
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The worst hit for me was a 60% decline in 2009.
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Thatās can be brutal though. For every 1 AAPL who made it back, thereās how many CSCO, DELL, EMC, IBM, NOK, RIMM, HPQ, JDSU, CY, AMCC, SUNW, YHOO, etc, etc, etc? Iād actually argue itās far more difficult to turn around an existing company than grow a younger company. The existing company has massive legacy costs. By the time itās declined, only the lower performing employees are left. Itāll be much harder to get talented employees to join vs. them joining a young company with a high growth rate. Itās not just about new products, but there needs to be a wholesale culture change. How do you know youāre holding AAPL and not NOK?
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I of the same philosophy as wuqijun, probably because we are Chinese, we believe in čÆē¦½ę©ęØčę ,čÆč£ę©äø»čä¾ i.e A good bird chooses the type of wood to make its nest, a good staff chooses his boss. Not an exact analogy but Steve Jobs is a renowned genius in SV. SJ is far more intelligent than the rest of the CEOs then, and he had proven himself to be a good CEO at Pixar. So selling whatever left in other stocks and dump all in to AAPL seems like the best bet. In retrospect, AMZN works too 
No Google and FB then. Btw, I did own CSCO, HPQ, JDSU, SUNW, YHOO then ā¦ all dumped and ploughed into AAPL.
At that point in time, so long youāre into stocks, the feeling is the same, hard earned money just poof like that. Is the different post-event response that lead to different outcome now. Is that luck or destiny or good judgement, up to you to say, I have no idea.
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Great move! You couldāve combined everything into SUNW and then everything crashed and burned!!!
[quote=āwuqijun, post:89, topic:2789, full:trueā]
Great move! You couldāve combined everything into SUNW and then everything crashed and burned!!!
[/quote]Obviously there are more stories that I didnāt tell. When I first bought into AAPL, I follow it very closely. From those stories I gathered:
SJ fired the entire teams or individuals who donāt have the necessary skills to fit into his vision. Is not indiscriminate cost cutting. He has a vision.
SJ ruthlessly brought the cost down to $5B, saying the revenue would decline a lot more than what everybody estimate. He has good financial sense.
SJ brought in Tim Cook, yes, he is a winner, and CFO, Peter Oppenheimer, SJ recognized cost control is very important and supply chain is king. The inventory turnover improves by leaps and bounds, not talk about in popular blogs but if you dig deeply, are available on the web. Publicly, he promotes Jony Ives, and kept his best pieces quiet. He understood the importance of supply chain.
SJ visited many car manufacturing plants with Lee Iacooca, yes, SJ was interested in car very early.
SJ privately claimed that he would transform Apple into the top internet company and the biggest consumer electronics company in the worldā¦ yes, in 1998. How I donāt know, can or not, I donāt know but he is a genius. He is ambitious.
In a way, I exploited the web to gain knowledge that is public but very few people are willing to spend the time to research
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The key is not the past, but future prediction. Marcus has given almost 43 stocks.
Can anyone, who were so far successful, predict correctly which of the 43 are going to have 10x, if any?
How do we find the winner stocks? Any clue/help?
Using the same approach as for AAPL, try searching the web for info but not much available on those stocks. Long ago, search can read forums and blogs, but nowadays, forums implemented blocks, canāt read any private forums anymore. So using knowledge is power approach is now very much limited. Have to plough carefully through SEC reports but there are so many, need to have some quick tests before investing tons of time to read those stuffs. In short, I invest huge amount of time in researching and following Apple news. Is easy for Apple because SJ is a genius and Apple has a loyal fans, so worth the effort and time to dig. Which one has that now?
So far, I think UBNT is worth spending more time to dig deeply because it is a textbook case of low cost disruption to an established high cost incumbent, CSCO.
The first step is to identify stocks that we are willing to invest huge amount of time following, not identify the winner, is still early.
wuqijun,
I understood competitive advantage and business model from MBA. Have never like SUNW nor DELL, always felt these companies are just lucky. Also felt the same with Google, except now with Sundar Pichai, ok, they are good to go.
The thing is, even if someone told you which one out of those 43 would likely be the most successful, why would you follow his advice?
I already told the forum that I believe it was going to be TSLA (next AAPL). But most people took it with a grain of salt at best (@marcus335) and mockery at worst (@manch).
Despite what @hanera said about his apple experience, I think it is extremely hard to duplicate his feat. Also, just because he was successful with apple, doesnāt mean he can pick the next apple.
Also, letās say someone correctly predicted a certain stock which is definitely the most hopeful. Because the CEO of this company is indeed the next Steve Jobs. So you put all your money into this one company. Say, 2 years from now, this CEO suffered a horrific accident and suddenly died before his vision of the company comes to fruition. So, your prediction would have worked but some unforseen circumstance could always nullify it.
MORAL: No one can correctly predict the future with 100% accuracy. You can do your due diligence to enhance your chances (for example, put all your money into 3 stocks which you think have the best shot), but there is always the risk of failure.
When Marcus was pointing out GM Bolt will come first, I never believed it, but it came first on road. Bolt is cost effective than Model 3.
Even though it is released this weekend, Bolt will be pushing down Tesla, no doubt. Lot of cancellation of Model 3 going on.
Now, Tesla will have pressure to reduce the price, Profit Margin. It is really tough for Telsa now.
There are always tough times where things could go either way. The winners find a way to win. Apple wasnāt a straight climb with no stock corrections or competitive risk. Remember the Zune? That almost sank Apple. Ok, that was probably a bad example. 
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If Tesla manages to become a $500B dollar company, then there is your 10x stock winner, since its current market cap is at $50B. I think it is a better bet than gambling with your money in one of the companies in the small cap list.
Definitely canāt repeat the feat. Only once in a lifetime is good enough 
Second time is a bonus 
[quote=āwuqijun, post:94, topic:2789ā]
No one can correctly predict the future with 100% accuracy. You can do your due diligence to enhance your chances (for example, put all your money into 3 stocks which you think have the best shot), but there is always the risk of failure.
[/quote]č°äŗåØäŗŗļ¼ęäŗåØ天 , we have to č°äŗ regardless. What Jil did is č°äŗ in his own way, you have your way.
č°äŗåØäŗŗļ¼ęäŗåØ天
Humans endeavor, heaven decides.
[quote=āwuqijun, post:97, topic:2789, full:trueā]
If Tesla manages to become a $500B dollar company, then there is your 10x stock winner, since its current market cap is at $50B. I think it is a better bet than gambling with your money in one of the companies in the small cap list.
[/quote]My micro-cap bet is LQMT. Planned size $10k.
Small cap, FSLR and SPWR are not doing well so need to look for another one. UBNT looks good. Planned size $50k.
My preferred mid-cap bet is NVDA. Messed up this one, hoping for a market-wide correction to build up position. Now have only 4 short puts. Planned size? How much do you suggest? How much did you put in TSLA?
As you have said, make more bets, increase probability of success 
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Canāt remember Zune ever dent AAPL advance. Since 1997ā¦
The big declines are market-wide dotcom bust, option irregularities and market-wide financial crisis.
Two smaller ones are in 2013 (market lost faith in TC) and 2016 (Carl Icahn sold his shares).
Iāll tell you how much I put in TSLA if you tell me the size of your APPL portfolio
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Tesla is down over 50 points in a monthā¦Headed towards 190ā¦The rumours are trumped by news. .No way Musk can build 500k 3s even in 3 years. .Even he admits itā¦Tesla will continue loosing money and Musk will continue to miss his projectionsā¦like he always doesā¦
Besides the model 3 is identical to a Mazda 3 which costs $20kā¦could never justify the $35k cost with gas at $3/gal
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