Next 10x Stock Winner


#1393

Nest is a POS.


#1394

I am betting on the following:

  • Match Group. Up 140% in less than a year. Dating apps are on the up and analysts don’t know how to price this industry yet. Also I talked to their CEO Sam Yagan years ago…very smart guy who founded OKCupid. Am not selling and will double down if it dips.
  • Stitchfix. Strong revenue / growth and breakeven last time I looked at it. Their ceo Katrina Lake said they’re always underestimated and I think she’s right. People are negatively associating it with Groupon and BlueApron, in my opinion unfairly so. Lots of verticals for growth. I sold some already when it was up 50% very quickly after I bought, but I but kept some. It feels a bit volatile as market is uncertain about it, will buy more if it drops.
  • PCG: someone else mentioned this one (@Jil maybe?) They could get sued, but when has any company been held really responsible for something? Long-term small hold for me.
  • Amazon: long term hold! In my Roth as I’m not selling! AWS is growing like crazy not to mention all the other things…

Now if I didn’t have so much crypto and actually had cash to allocate, I would add the following:

  • Wal-Mart: they are finally making some ecommerce gains plus their stores are doing great. Feels less vulnerable to recession than some other picks
  • Costco: their prices are actually better than Amazons (surely that will matter eventually?) and it’s a well run company. They pay their workers a fairer amount.
  • Tesla: I want to be on the same side as Elon on his compensation bet. Wouldn’t you? I’m pretty sure Elon is smarter than so I’m with him.
  • Netflix: I think they have a good understanding of consumer’s addictive and revenue driving behaviors when it comes to entertainment. Feels like a strong basis for a business.

#1395

Match is a very interesting pick. It has very good return on asset and on equity. Need to look into it.

PG&E has interests rate risks. Many buy for dividend income. When risk free rate keeps going higher and higher there is less reason to buy PG&E.

Costco and Walmart are direct competitors of amazon. I don’t dare stand on the other side of bezos. :fearful: people were taking about Home Depot and that’s one of the few retail companies not in amazon’s warpath.


#1396

How’s the growth potential for stitch fix? Isn’t it hard to scale?


#1397

The stitchfix selections are meant to become data-driven and based on machine learning over time, and less reliant on individual stylists. I believe they are already using data to recommend optimal sets of items to customers, especially for the first few boxes of things they send. And they’re expanding beyond women’s clothes to menswear and babywear. I can imagine them going beyond just clothing. More of a data-optimized, “push” vs pull system of shopping where they guess based on some preferences you give and their data, what you would like to decorate your home, or kitchen items, all sorts of things…and they just automatically send you stuff each month and you send things back that you don’t like.

EDIT: I read their 10k and they do sound very married to the idea of data science PLUS stylists.


#1398

That is a good point about Costco and Wal-Mart. Amazon does feel invincible right now and is way, way ahead of Wal-Mart ecommerce still. The founder of jet is running that now so Wal-Mart definitely has more of a shot than they did before. But maybe still not enough?


#1399

It takes much much more than just listing products online. Amazon is way ahead in its FBA program. Third party sellers send their inventory to amazon fulfillment network and buyers get fast delivery and painless returns. Walmart still relies on 3rd party sellers to handle fulfillment.

Walmart is using kitchen knife against amazon’s machine gun. No match at all.


#1400

Unless they are storm troopers. Then they cannot hit.


#1401

This time, after selling everything, I changed the picks based of lower P/E and dividend payers.

I am staying away from AMZN, TSLA, NFLX as they are high P/E. When economy crashes, these will be hit high, i.e. the fall of AMZN will be higher than fall of AAPL or BA.

Reg PCG, I stayed away when last qtr they stopped paying dividend in the wake likely law suit. They wanted to reserve cash for possible settlement. The results were good, but likely end up paying settlement cash.

IMO, WMT (bought today), COST and MTCH are really good.


#1402

COST is very solid, I made good money on it after WholeFoods acqusition drop. I <3 Costco as a consumer, too. Very pro-consumer, i don’t yet buy amazon threat to them.


#1403

AMZN and SPY fell by almost identical amounts during the Great Recession. By the end of 2010, SPY was still down 16% from the peak. AMZN was up 161%. AMZN maintained its annual revenue growth through the Great Recession. I’m not sure how many companies can claim that kind of revenue growth during that time period.


#1404

You are perfectly right. AMZN fell less than other companies. OMG, I need to buy AMZN soon !

AMZN (better than) > AAPL > GOOGL > SP500 > BA. Time frame: Oct 5th, 2007 and Mar 27, 2009


#1405

Sharks are such dumbasses.


#1406

VC funding (aside from sharktank) in general is a high false-positive, false-negative event.
Many companies that we know today had funding crunch back in the day.


#1407

16%20AM

02%20AM

Today, small cap trounces F10.


#1408

Look at ANET !


#1409

It appears I was too early on TWLO and VEEV. I’m not too worried since SHOP and NTNX are doing great. UBNT has almost recovered to my average purchase price.


#1410

Sound similar to mine. $66.45 :), now $63.90

Seem like a rotation to small caps from mega caps.

Sold NTNX at $35 :wink:


#1411

Why? It’s earnings are tomorrow.

I sold some Mar $45 calls against my shares for an easy $0.20. The 0.5% yield for 2.5 weeks on 22.6% OOM is pretty good. It doesn’t seem like a lot at the time it adds up over a year. I thought about the $42.50 which would have been 1.2%, but I think hitting that is possible.

One of my goals is to generate 1%/mo from selling covered calls or secured puts.


#1412

Both IRBT and UBNT tumbles 40% after earning worry me, so I sell :blush: