Honestly, I don’t think I’ve ever been excited about my choices in presidential candidates. Overall, I think the government and specifically bigger government is our most pressing issue. Both parties want big government in their own way. That’s why spending goes up and up and up as they switch power back and forth. Trump increased the Pentagon’s budget when their own report shows they waste $125B/yr. Why on earth are we not cutting their budget by that $125B/yr?
I’m far more worried about social program spending than military spending. One has been significantly increasing as a percent of GDP while the other has actually declined over the last 60 years. By 2032, the big 3 entitlements and interest on debt will consume every dollar of tax revenue. That’s not even close to a sustainable path and no one wants to address it. Restructuring the tax system to pay for it would crash the economy and get everyone voted out of office. Restructuring the programs to be sustainable would anger so many people that everyone would be voted out of office. The end result is we do nothing and remain on a collision course with economic disaster.
If I got my tax plan, I’d exempt income below the poverty line and tax everything else at a flat rate (all types of income). There’d be zero deductions, and taxes would take a few minutes to do. I’d tax corporations on their US revenue not profits and get rid of all the deduction and credit BS. The system would be incredibly simple and treat everyone by the same rules. Lobbyists would never let that happen which is why we’re getting terrible proposals for tax reform.
Then entitlements need serious reform. Over 90% will receive more from social security and medicare than they paid into the system. That only works if you have a work force that’s growing fast enough to sustain it. We don’t anymore. Something has to give there.
The most useful thing was the Simpson Bowles commission, since they were all retiring. Both parties looked at the recommendations and immediately rejected them, since it was full of things that’d anger the base of both parties.
My guess is we’ll get through the next recession although the federal reserve won’t have room to cut rates as much as prior recessions. It will spike debt levels even more, since entitlements are increasing every year. It’ll be the recession after that one that could be make or break for the US. It’ll be much closer to when entitlements and debt are consuming every dollar of tax revenue. Entitlements will still be increasing, and the debt load will grow to crushing levels.