Presidential reelection and housing/stock markets

Looking back the past 26 years, newly elected presidents started with couple of years of crappy economy and then improved it before their reelection (e.g. Clinton, George W Bush, Obama). Trump started with a strong economy and kind of made it even more strong in the first 1.5 years. Do you think he will let it go down before his reelection by reining in the Fed, or can it happen in spite of his best efforts?

Powell said he would slow down rate increase if needed.

But I’m not sure whether Trump can keep economy strong for another 2 years. Maybe he can postpone the recession by 6 months, but not much more than that. His timing is not very good.

The congress and local races are way more important. Trump is the best thing that happens to the Dems for at least a generation. People are super excited to go to the polls to make themselves heard. Let’s see whether he 2018 blue wave materializes and how big it is.

Trump really rubbed me the wrong way with those crazy tariffs. Hope he lose the next race…


What’s your wish and what’s your expectations for midterm?

My wish is for Dems to take back both house and Senate. House is likely but senate will be tough.

I hope CA won’t swing too hard to the left though. But the election of that socialist lady in the Bronx gives you a taste of what’s coming. The backlash against Trump means some nutty candidates will get thru.

Talking about tariffs shits actually would win him votes. The correct way to tackle the mismatch of job available and the unemployed Americans are upskilling as suggested by Marcus through a restructuring of the education system. This tariffs and trade war is a f… distraction. Those guys lose their jobs not because of trade, technology advances did that. Tackle the right problem. F…

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Obama tried that in coal country by pouring money into training programs. People who were starting to take those course stopped because Trump ran on bringing back coal jobs. Now they are completely screwed.


Listen Liberal. Read the book and remember what happened in 2016. Trump was arguably the worst candidate ever and he beat a smug left driven Hillary.
My guess is the leftist lunacy like the communist nut from NY will derail a over confident smug Democratic Party again.

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One major social conflict today is bwteeen knowledge workers and other workers. Most knowledge workers supported Hillary and most non-knowledge workers supported Trump, is it the case? More broadly, knowledge workers prefer Democratic Party while non-knowledge workers prefer Republican Party. Knowledge workers are usually to the left of the non-knowledge workers.

48% of the workers are knowledge workers, slightly under the non-knowledge workers. But knowledge workers have stronger political influence due to better control of the media and better political skills.

Race relations seems to be not a major issue and race had very little impact on last elections.

Hillary used sexism and racism to get her support. She said only deplorables would vote for a racist sexist Trump. That strategy backfired. The left now says if you are male and white you are in effect a sexist racist.

The Democrats are now a marginalized party. They have no interest in attracting the old Reagan blue collar Democrats. They just want coastal liberals, minority groups, illegals and women. They attack everyone else.
Sure Trump is an asshole. But a nice guy like Romney has no chance against a vicious leftist socialist racist attack.

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Reminder: Hillary won the popular vote.

Watch the blue wave in midterm.

Democrats is projected to win 8 seats

Not a very smart politician. She knew about the electoratoral college… Just didn’t bother to run where the blue collar Democrats refused to vote for her. She ran for President of The US…not just governor of NY and Ca.

The Democrats may pick up some congressional seats. Always happens in an off year. Senate iffy.

Even the Democrats know that they cannot get a impeachable majority. Trump till 2020. And beyond if the Democrats don’t get new leadership.

I am a Bill Clinton Democrat. Too bad Hillary let Bernie drive her into the lefty ditch.

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D +8 is the polling differential. Not the number of seats.

Predictions is Republican holds 3 seat advantage for now. There are so many seats contested in so many different places, very hard to know.

If Democrats indeed get a slight majority in the House, what’s the implications?

If Democrats loses again, will the party inflight intensity? I’m worried about elitists losing control of the party and a bunch of commies taking over the Democratic Party. Elitists are still better than radicals. Maybe it’s bette to let Democrats win and squeeze radicals to the margin

Under 2% GDP growth is a strong economy? That’s a week economy. Don’t mistake a strong stock market for a strong economy.

The blue wave is already crumbling. Democrat polling advantage is half what is was before the family separation crisis. They managed to lose ground from a major policy blunder. Clearly, despite what CNN tells us not a lot of Americans were upset by it. If they were, it’d have killed republicans in polling. Instead, it improved their numbers.

Anyone who’s even remotely moderate isn’t going to like that democrats are going further left. It excites their far left base, but they don’t need to appease those people. Those people will vote democrat no matter what. They actually need to be more moderate to appeal to moderates. It’s pretty unbelievable that they are making Trump look like a moderate.

Most adults in Detroit can’t even read, and they heavily favored Hillary. Yes, Hillary got a lot of the bay area vote, but look at the bay area. The income inequality is huge. Everyone thinks it was SV tech workers who gave here the strong bay area vote. Tech workers are only 10-15% of the population, and I bet her edge there wasn’t that big… There are far more poor people in the bay area, and you can bet they voted nearly 100% for Hillary.

I’m sure the left thinks they are winning due to social media conversation where their response to anyone who supports Trump is: 1) call them a racist 2) call them a Nazi 3) block and unfriend them. All it does is make Trump supporters more quiet on social media. It doesn’t make them change their mind. If anything, the militant action of the left makes people even more supportive of Trump.

So what? They both ran a campaign based on electoral college votes. It’s a completely different strategy from a popular vote campaign.

Saying she won based on a different metric is like saying that that the runner who lost a marathon was ahead of the first place winner at the first mile marker, so clearly she was better. It’s irrelevant.

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It’s relevant in the sense that Trump didn’t win a “mandate” for his agenda. Over half the voters didn’t buy into his agenda. So to brush off the Dems based on a narrow Trump win is IMO mistaken.

I see this a lot here. Trump won so the Dem agenda has no merit etc. One can’t draw that conclusion.

I still think the county will swing to the left after Trump. Left in the Bernie sense. We had a big “New Deal” wave from FDR. That went out of steam after Carter. Reagan’s free market orthodox reigned supreme since the 80s. Now it’s running on fumes. Trump himself is not exactly a free market guy with his tariffs and rants against drug pricing.

Like it or not, a left turn is on the menu.