Presidential reelection and housing/stock markets

USA definitely need a new deal something like the GI bill. May be called it a Midwest bill :slight_smile:

The new deal is why we are in massive debt.

Do people forget that when Obama was elected the democrats had a majority in the house and almost a filibuster proof majority in the senate? He went left and the country revolted with tons of house and senate seats changing. Democrats have literally had control of congress most of the time since 1932.

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1T budget deficit next year. All branches of Federal government under R control.

Hereā€™s the chart people love to use to show military spending is over 50% of the budget.

What they donā€™t tell you is thatā€™s only discretionary spending. Military is actually 16% of the total:

The bulk of the budget is mandated spend based on existing laws. Weā€™re going to run larger and larger deficits unless thereā€™s medicare and social security reform.

For some historical perspective, military is small as a percent of GDP:

Then thereā€™s government spending on healthcare:

Social security and government employee pensions:

Total entitlements which canā€™t be changed without passing new laws:

Those are ALL as a percent of GDP. Tax revenue averages 17.5% of GDP since WWII. You can see where the spending issue is as some areas grow spending much faster than GDP.

No consensus on which party is superior. Forumā€™s only consensus is No on Prop 10

Sure. Point still remains R controls all branches of federal government. Do whatever reforms on the spending side you want. Until then donā€™t mess with the income side if you are serious about deficit and debt like many proclaim.

Military spending is up under Trump BTW.

What happens to tax cut paying for itself? How come deficit is rocketing up?

You realize YTD tax revenue is coming in at a record high, right? Military spending is up, but itā€™s still at or below itā€™s historical average of GDP. Itā€™s entitlements that keep increasing as a percent of GDP which clearly isnā€™t sustainable.

ā€œThe tax cut enacted by President Donald Trump last year was expected to result in a boost in workersā€™ take-home pay. The CBO said withheld taxes rose in April since wages and salaries were higher ā€” but the share of wages withheld for taxes was lower thanks to the new tax law.ā€

Wages are higher thanks to economic growth putting more people to work, and they are earning more.
Economic growth is the key to tax revenue. Thereā€™s a reason tax revenue has averaged 17.5% since WW2 despite very different tax rates over all those decades.

Weā€™re now going to be 5/5 in tax cuts increasing GDP growth and increasing tax revenue.

The issue is all of the mandated spending which is only going to increase as baby boomers age.

The Trump admin didnā€™t know how much the entitlement will cost this year when they said their tax cut will pay for itself last year? Do we suddenly have an influx of old people out of nowhere?

I gotta be honest, but Iā€™ve yet to see a politician care about a mandate from the voters. Once theyā€™re elected they do whatever they want.

(PS: I agree one shouldnā€™t brush off anyoneā€“it only leads to surprises later)

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That tax cut plan is paying for itself. Total tax revenue will increase. All the doom predictions of tax revenue declining were fake news.

Entitlement reform is a totally different issue and neither side has the political will to tackle it.

Letā€™s wait and see before making final conclusion
All these things we hear 1.5 years ago what trump does suppose to be armageddon but so far what happen? jobs gaining and stock market great.
Letā€™s wait 1-2 years before doing final judgement. Even the trade war, still on the negotiating phase. doesnā€™t even know the end result yet.

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Whether tax cut is paying for itself is more complicated than just looking at whether tax revenue increases or decreases. After all population is still growing, GDP is still growing, so the base case is always that tax revenue will increase.

To judge whether tax cut is paying for itself we need to look at how much stimulus is the tax cut giving to the economy. On this the most current thinking among mainstream economists is that: not that much. We are late in expansion cycle and most of the tax cuts are used in dividend and buybacks instead of investment. Just what people predicted.

Do we still know whether Trump is fit for the job? Shall we fire him due to his temperament?

After every single tax cut, GDP grow accelerates and tax revenue increases. GDP growth improved this time too.

Why didnā€™t California sue for the 10k SALT cap? They failed their fiduciary duty to California citizens

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Maybe, Maybe Not. Only time will tell.
People in England Hate Trump So much
https://www.facebook.com/BlackHatConservative/videos/541563399595589/

They also hated George Washington :slight_smile:

The So called pro immigrant England . accepts refugee but NOT Hong Kong Citizen with BNO . They Betray the HK citizen. If talk about peace and love, they should be the last fxxking country that has the right to talk shxx about it. Till this date. HK people holding BNO still not allow to live in England.

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Why does anyone want to live in England?

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Because england chicks overall are hotter than american chicks :smile: